Bench This Surprising QB This Week

You’d have to be an absolute sicko to watch this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup. So, yes, this will be me during tonight.

While we’ll probably see two gross offensive performances from both teams, there is still money to be made and fantasy leagues to be won.  

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

This, unfortunately, looks to be another game that we as football hang our heads at and say, “Okay, well, at least I’ll be able to turn the game off early.” Both of these teams have looked mediocre at best this season, but the difference is that the Steelers have been able to win games by the sheer force of will of HC Mike Tomlin.

Kenny Pickett, who was supposed to take a step forward this season, has not done so just yet. However, there have been upside looks, especially in last week’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals in which — in the Steelers’ first game without the fired Matt Canada as offensive coordinator — Pickett looked more comfortable and poised as he led Pittsburgh to its first 400+ yard outing in nearly 50 games.

On the other hand, the Patriots are quite simply a mess. They have no confirmed starter (Mac Jones got benched AGAIN), there’s really no offensive weaponry to speak of (sorry Rhamondre Stevenson, it’s not your fault), and the defense has even been a mess.

Bailey Zappe and Jones have somehow managed to not win a single one of the Patriots’ last three games despite the defense holding those teams under ten points in each game. It’s the first time in NFL history that that has happened.

I don’t have any confidence that this Patriots team can keep pace, even with the Steelers who have struggled to generate great offense this season. The Steelers should find a way to cover this spread.

Let’s turn to the over/under, now, which is another spot I’d like to target in this game. I was able to grab this at 32.5 when the line opened on Sunday night, and with the total dropping to 30, there’s a spot where I want tease both of these numbers down. I don’t think there will be much offense in this game, and getting the total up to 36.5 and the Steelers spread down to a pick ‘em. — Sam Wagman

RANKINGS INSIGHTS

Frank Ammirante is a top-six fantasy football ranker in the industry for the 2023 season. He placed in the Top 2 in the FantasyPros Accuracy rankings for Weeks 4 and 5, and he has finished in the Top 25 in seven of the past nine weeks. Here are some highlighted plays from Frank for Week 13, and you can find all of his rankings here. 

QB Rankings Tips

• C.J. Stroud is in a tough spot against a Jets defense tied for fifth in fantasy points per game allowed vs quarterbacks. Tank Dell is out of the lineup, which takes away one of Stroud's top pass-catchers. Early reports indicate rainy weather on tap for this game. Bench Stroud this week.

RB Rankings Tips

• Zack Moss let us down against the Titans last week, but he saw bell-cow usage, handling 91% of the rush attempts with 68% route participation. The Bengals have given up 4.54 yards per carry this year, which ranks 28th in the NFL. Look for Moss to get back on track in this one.

WR Rankings Tips

• Courtland Sutton continues to get it done, finishing in the top 15 wideouts in four of his last six games. This is a terrific matchup vs the Chargers, who rank 30th in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers.

TE Rankings Tips

• Isaiah Likely has a good matchup against the Rams, who are giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. We saw some flashes of upside from Likely in the Ravens' win over the Chargers in Week 12. Hopefully, this doesn't turn into a run-heavy game script.

Flex Rankings Tips

• I love what I see from James Cook under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The dynamic back has 33 carries and 11 targets in two games with the new play-caller. This is a projected shootout against the Chiefs with a 47.5-point total.

FOUR FEATURED ITEMS FOR THE SUNDAY SLATE

1. I will definitely be in on the Over of 51.5 in the Eagles-Cowboys showdown on Sunday night. In Dallas’ last four games, it has played over this total three times. Philadelphia has played to Over 51 points in four of its past five.

2. The Bills and Chiefs appear to be evenly matched as Buffalo has started to regain a good chunk of its better form and the Chiefs will be primed to rebound from an upset loss to the Packers. The safest play is to take the Over of 48.5, but Buffalo is a nifty pick on the moneyline at +102.  

3. San Francisco has beaten Seattle in four straight meetings, with winning margins of 18-plus points in three of those games. So the spread of 10.5 favoring the Niners is no surprise. The Seahawks, however, gave the Cowboys a tough fight last week and will cover the spread this time as they try to stay in the NFC Wild Card race. 

4. Weather issues could point to taking the Under in several games this week. Stay on point with the forecasts until game day. The Colts-Bengals, Jaguars-Browns, Texans-Jets and Rams-Ravens matchups are among the games to monitor. — Scott Engel

WEEK 14 START/SITS

Start/sit decisions don’t have to be tough! Michelle Magdziuk makes it easy for you with “Fire & Ice”, her industry-standard start/sits piece.

Start: Courtland Sutton, Broncos (at LAC)

Cortland Sutton makes a ton of sense as a top-24 and possibly top-18 wide receiver this week, given the matchup the Chargers pose. The Chargers are allowing the second-most receiving yards per game in the NFL this season and have struggled against perimeter receivers, giving up 70% of their total fantasy points allowed against them.

Sit: Nico Collins, Texans (at NYJ)

It sucks, but benching Nico Collins and C.J. Stroud are probably +EV options for this week against the Jets. Collins is going to draw looks from both Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, neither of which I like without Tank Dell drawing away some looks.

Despite Collins having a terrific game last week when Dell went down, the Jets’ passing defense is an entirely different animal.

SLEEPERS & BUSTS

Every week on TheGameDay.com, Scott ‘The King” Engel provides his full rundown of fantasy football sleepers and busts. Scott is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Hall of Fame.

😴 SLEEPER: Drake London, Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is a regular fantasy football target for potential spike production from the norm. Last week, Jonathan Mingo had the best game of his rookie season against the Buccaneers. 

Drake London caught only one ball in Week 13, but that was no major shock against the Jets. In his previous game vs New Orleans, the Falcons’ top WR finished with 91 yards on five receptions. 

On PFF for Week 14, London has the sixth-best WR/CB matchup grade of any WR against an opposing secondary. Tampa Bay ranks 30th in receiving yards allowed to WRs.  

😴 SLEEPER: Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos 

Gerald Everett has notched all three of his TD receptions for the year in the past six games, and Denver has allowed the most Fantasy Points Per Game to TEs. A quality TE2 streamer for one week, Everett has the fifth-best matchup advantage grade for any TE on Pro Football Focus for Week 14.   

💥 BUST: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

Rachaad White has 95-plus scrimmage yards in seven of his past eight games and four rushing TDs in his last five. But the Buccaneers have the lowest run blocking grade on PFF for Week 14, and the Falcons rank first in Fantasy Points Pwr Game allowed to RBs.  

Atlanta is the only team to not allow a rushing TD to RBs in 2023.  

BUST: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens

The breakout rookie is coming off a 10-5-yard performance against the Browns, who usually perform well in the secondary, but Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua were able to expose some injury issues for Cleveland. Nacau will now have to play through a shoulder injury against Baltimore, which ranks fifth in FFPG allowed to WRs, and weather effects in the game may also hold the Los Angeles passing attack down. 

View more Week 14 fantasy football sleepers from Scott Engel here. 

MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

Each week, Sam Wagman takes you through some of his favorite fantasy football matchups to exploit. Whether it’s a stat-based take or a pure gut feeling, Sam makes it easy for you to make tough lineup calls with his Matchups to Exploit article. Frank Ammirante streams in for him in Week 13. 

WR/CB: Brandin Cooks, DAL vs Eagles CBs

Right out of the gate, Brandin Cooks could make his mark on this game. The speed option the Cowboys have been looking for for years, Cooks took his time getting going this season for fantasy but has three games of 16 or more fantasy points in his last four, cooking at the right time.

This week, Cooks draws an Eagles team that has not performed well against the deep pass or speedy wideouts. They’ve allowed six touchdowns on passes thrown 20+ yards down field and have given up the third-most total deep passes in the league this season.

Cooks works equally on all three spots on the field, so he should see near equal time, but the Eagles are allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last six weeks, so he should have plenty of opportunities.

WR/CB: Jayden Reed, GB vs Cordale Flott

This is another extremely advantageous matchup for a wide receiver here as Jayden Reed has been a more-than-serviceable WR3 with great upside this season, a nice surprise for a rookie who came into the season fourth on the depth chart. 

This matchup against the Giants is great for him as they are allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers out of the slot over the last month. Look for Reed to take advantage here as Flott has really struggled in coverage. Fellow Packers receiver Christian Watson could also miss this matchup, further boosting Reed’s upside here in a matchup where the Packers could press their advantage by throwing.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK

Our Parlay of the Week features two live dogs who need to win to stay in the playoff race.

I'll start off with the Seattle Seahawks (6-6), who looked much better on offense in a close loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week.

Geno Smith had his best game of the season, which directly coincides with the return of stud right tackle Abraham Lucas. It was the first game since Week 1 in which the Seahawks had a fully healthy offensive line.

While it's a tough spot against the best team in football in the San Francisco 49ers (9-3), this is a divisional game that could be closer than expected.

We could see San Francisco have a bit of a letdown following a statement win over the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.

I'll conclude this parlay by taking the Buffalo Bills (6-6) to upset the Kansas City Chiefs (8-4).

The Bills are coming off their bye and need to start winning games to avoid missing the playoffs. This offense has been more fast-paced and effective under new play-caller Joe Brady.

In fact, the Bills probably should have won that game against the Eagles back in Week 12.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs continue to struggle on offense, highlighting their deficiencies at wide receiver.

The defense has also regressed, fresh off getting picked apart by Jordan Love.

We've seen the Bills have success at Arrowhead during the regular season, winning there two years in a row, so let's ride with Buffalo here.

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