Best Bets for the NFL Divisional Round

We’ve got no shortage of intriguing matchups in the NFL Divisional Round, starting this Saturday, January 16 at 4:30 p.m. ET.

We kick it off with an AFC rematch of Week 16 when the Houston Texans try to pull off the upset over the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Texans are heavy underdogs here and will need their defense to carry them to pull this one off.

Next up we’ve got one of the best rookie quarterbacks of all time in Jayden Daniels trying to lead his Washington Commanders to shock the world against the Detroit Lions at 8:00 p.m. ET. Despite being heavy underdogs, you can’t count out the Commanders with Daniels under center.

The Sunday slate opens up with the Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles at 3:00 p.m. ET. This is a rematch of Week 12, where the Eagles won 37-20. But the Rams defense has improved significantly since then, so it should be an interesting matchup.

The main event of the Divisional Round is a doozy, with the two MVP favorites in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen going at it in this Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills matchup. This should be an exciting game featuring two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

So without further ado, let’s break down the NFL Divisional Round with best bets and predictions.

📋 BACK OFFICE BUZZ: THE RUNDOWN 1/18/25

• Texans vs Chiefs

• Commanders vs Lions

• Rams vs Eagles

• Ravens vs Bills

• Best Sportsbook Promos

🏈 Texans vs Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs’ quest for a historic Super Bowl three-peat begins on Saturday when Patrick Mahomes and Co. host C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round.

Houston’s defense led the way on Wild Card Weekend, forcing four turnovers in Saturday’s 32-12 victory over the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City enjoyed essentially a second straight off week, as most of its starters haven’t featured since Week 17.

Can the Texans take advantage of any potential Chiefs’ rust? Or will Andy Reid’s squad move one step closer to history with its eighth consecutive playoff victory?

Let’s dive in with a prediction for this AFC Divisional Game:

Chiefs 24, Texans 17

When these teams met in Kansas City in Week 16, the Chiefs defeated the Texans 27-19, with Mahomes accounting for 293 total yards and a pair of scores.

Houston lost wide receiver Tank Dell to a gruesome knee injury during the third quarter of that game, which visibly affected his teammates and likely affected the outcome. Dell led Texans’ pass-catchers with 98 yards on six receptions on the day and was a constant threat to the Chiefs’ secondary.

Without him and Stefon Diggs, Stroud is left to rely on top target Nico Collins and running back Joe Mixon. Those two combined for 228 of Houston’s 429 total yards last week, accounting for over 53% of the offense and a pair of touchdowns. No Texans pass-catcher besides Collins posted 35 or more receiving yards.

Given that, Collins will likely draw extra attention, and Mixon could struggle against a Kansas City defensive front that ranked tied for fourth in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.1). Unless someone steps up or the defense plays out of its mind again, it’s hard to envision a way for Houston to win this game.

💰 Best Sportsbook Promos

🏈 Commanders vs Lions

We've got an intriguing matchup between the projected Offensive Rookie of the Year trying to upset one of the Super Bowl favorites in the NFC Divisional Round when Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders (13-5) take on Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions (15-2) at Ford Field on Saturday, January 18 at 8 p.m. ET.

While the Lions are expected to win this game, I wouldn't count out the Commanders simply because they have one of the best rookie quarterbacks of all time under center.

Let’s take a look at some of my best bets for this game:

Commanders +9.5 (-112)

Feels like we're getting a lot of points with Commanders +9.5 at Lions.

I understand that this is an elite offense with home-field advantage, but we can't underestimate Jayden Daniels.

Daniels kept it close in the first matchup with the Eagles (when Jalen Hurts played the full game) in a 26-18 loss and did the same at the Ravens in a 30-23 defeat.

In fact, Washington only has one 10+ loss this season -- 37-20 to the Bucs in Week 1.

Look for the Commanders to move the ball effectively enough to keep this within 10 points. Prior to the win over the Vikings, the Lions had allowed 30+ points in three of their previous four games.

Back Commanders +9.5 as one of your best NFL bets today.

🏈 Rams vs Eagles

After earning decisive victories on Wild Card Weekend, the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams will meet at Lincoln Financial Field for a spot in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 19 at 3 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia set the tone for its postseason run by forcing four Green Bay turnovers, including one on the opening kickoff, in Sunday’s 22-10 victory over the Packers. Los Angeles also dominated defensively in the opening round, sacking Sam Darnold nine times in a 27-9 win over the Vikings on Monday.

Here is one of my best bets for this game:

Eagles -6 (-110)

This number feels large, but Philadelphia has several advantages in this matchup.

Most importantly, the Eagles will be able to run the ball with Barkley and Hurts, which will grind down the Rams’ defense and limit the opportunities for Matthew Stafford and the LA offense.

I also have concerns about the Rams being an indoor team with an older quarterback who will have to brave the elements, which are currently forecasting freezing temperatures and a wintery mix of rain and snow. The Eagles should be more accustomed to the conditions at Lincoln Financial Field, where they have won six straight games by at least six points.

At this point of the season, I also wouldn’t overlook the rest, travel, and planning advantages that Philadelphia has after playing the mid-afternoon game on Sunday, whereas the Rams played on Monday and had to travel to Arizona to play their home game.

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🏈 Ravens vs Bills

Ravens vs Bills Prediction

Ravens 27, Bills 21

I'm riding with the Ravens in this Week 4 rematch because this team has addressed their one weakness, which was pass defense.

From Weeks 1-10, the Ravens ranked 30th in Pass EPA on defense. Since Week 11, Baltimore ranks 1st in the same category.

What happened was they benched Marcus Williams, put Ar'Darius Washington at free safety, and used Marlon Humphrey as a full-time slot corner. This find was courtesy of @wayne_bets on X, who is a must-follow for all NFL fans.

These adjustments have clearly patched a major hole for the Ravens, which makes them look like Super Bowl favorites. Just take a look at what this team has done since Week 11:

• W 28-14 vs Steelers

• W 35-10 vs Browns

• W 31-2 at Texans

• W 34-17 vs Steelers

• W 35-14 at Giants

• L 24-19 vs Eagles

• W 30-23 at Chargers

• L 18-16 at Steelers

That's good for a 6-2 record and +106 point differential.

When you add in the fact that Baltimore already blew out this Bills team, coupled with their elite offense (1st in EPA), you can see why I'm on the Ravens here.

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🏈 Ohio State vs Notre Dame - CFP National Championship Game

Ohio State -8.5 (-108)

The Buckeyes have won their three playoff games by double digits, so I feel comfortable laying the points with them in the title game.

Sure, Ryan Day’s squad was lucky to create that margin against Texas, especially given the circumstances of Jack Sawyer’s fourth-quarter touchdown. Still, it has been dominant since the end of the regular season.

Notre Dame doesn’t have the elite passing offense that I would want to rely on for a backdoor cover if it were down double-digits late. A part of me also fears another Irish blowout loss like the one it suffered against Alabama in its last appearance on this stage.