Bet on This Longshot in the NFL Playoffs! + Matthew Stafford Reunion

Congratulations to Michigan Football on winning it all last night. It’s only fitting that Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines won it all in Houston after the sign-stealing allegations … I’m JUST SAYING.

Next up: Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy will decide if he’ll declare for the NFL Draft. Do you think he’ll go pro?

Speaking of the NFL, we’ve got a ton of expert insights for you ahead of the NFL playoffs. 👇

Table of Contents

• OVERREACTION & UNDERREACTION

• NFL PLAYOFFS ADVANCE BETTING PREVIEW

• OK, BET 💰

• THE CRAZIEST STORY IN SPORTS MEDIA

OVERREACTION & UNDERREACTION

Every Tuesday, we go through our favorite overreaction and underreaction because what fantasy football players don’t react rationally to every bit of news they hear and see?!

Overreaction: C.J. Stroud is ready to take the Texans on a playoff run

C.J. Stroud capped off his impressive rookie season with a 264-yard, two-touchdown performance in a road win vs the division-rival Colts to lock up a playoff spot.

While Stroud is great, this Texans team is not good enough to go on a playoff run, looking more like a one-and-done type.

Houston’s defense just got gashed on the ground by the Colts for 227 yards, including 188 from Jonathan Taylor. 

If Gardner Minshew wasn’t so underwhelming in that game (141 yards), Indy would likely have won.

Let’s also remember that Joe Flacco shredded this defense for 368 yards in a 36-22 win only a couple of weeks ago.

The Browns are road favorites for a reason in this AFC Wild Card matchup vs the Texans. Go with the more well-rounded team in Cleveland. 

Don’t get caught up with Stroud in this one, as Flacco has proven himself as a competent starter in this Browns offense. 

In other words, the Texans’ quarterback advantage isn’t large enough to warrant taking them to win this game, given their defensive deficiencies.

Underreaction: The Bucs’ offense is struggling right now

The Bucs were fortunate that they got to face the lowly Panthers, as their offense has really struggled for two games in a row.

While it wasn’t a big deal in a 9-0 win over Carolina, they could be in trouble in the NFC Wild Card game, even against a struggling Eagles team.

Tampa Bay has combined for 22 points in their last two games. They scored 13 against the Saints in Week 17 in the fourth quarter while playing from behind in what was essentially garbage time (down 20-0).

Baker Mayfield really struggled to move the ball against the Panthers, throwing for only 137 yards on 32 attempts.

This has the look of a low-scoring game against an Eagles side that is similarly out of sync.

NFL PLAYOFFS ADVANCE BETTING PREVIEW

In addition to wagering on the individual playoff games, there are many other futures and playoff specials to consider on the road to Super Bowl 58. 

Of course, the 49ers (+220) and the Ravens (+310) have the best odds to win the Super Bowl. Baltimore has a head coach who has already won a Lombardi Trophy, Lamar Jackson is arguably playing better than he did in his first MVP season, and the Ravens decisively beat the other top teams they have faced this season, so they may be the better bet of the two favorites.  

Buffalo has the third-best odds at +650, but Josh Allen turnovers could derail a championship ride. Dallas is a promising choice at +750, because if the offense gets on a roll at any time, the Cowboys might be able to outscore opponents on their way to an NFC title. 

The most alluring longer shots are the Lions (+1800) and Browns (+3500). The long-suffering fan bases would love to see a storybook tale, and with Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness and Joe Flacco’s championship experience, respectively, both teams are worthy wagers. 

The best sleeper payoff could come via the Rams (+4500), who have won a Super Bowl with their current head coach and QB, but defensive lapses will have to be corrected in the biggest games of the season. 

• You can also bet on statistical leaders for the playoffs. Brock Purdy is an intriguing target at +700 to lead the postseason field in passing yards, and Tyreek Hill is at +2000 to lead all postseason players in passing yards, which could happen if the Dolphins make a run to the AFC Championship Game.

• Who will be the highest-scoring team in the NFL Playoffs? Buffalo has the best odds at +360, and the 49ers (+390) and Cowboys (+400) are sensible plays. But it’s more fun to take chances on the Lions (+900) and Dolphins (+1300). 

• If you strongly believe Baltimore will meet San Francisco in the Super Bowl, get your wagers in now on some team prop specials. I like Zay Flowers and Gus Edwards to both score a TD in the Super Bowl at +600. Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell combining for 8+ playoff rushing TDs is a nifty swing at +1800. - Scott Engel

OK, BET 💰

Each Tuesday, Sam Wagman will take a peek at the week ahead’s betting spread and total lines on our partner FanDuel to determine which lines you should grab ahead of time.

Rams +3.5 (-115) at Lions

Matthew Stafford returns home, Jared Goff faces off against the team that drafted him. This couldn’t have been storybooked any better by the NFL.

Both teams should be able to rise to the occasion for this game, but I’m overwhelmingly cognizant of the situation here, and that is that the Rams come into this game on a heater, having won four straight. Also compounding for the Lions is that they just lost standout tight end Sam LaPorta, who will probably will be out for this game, to a hyperextended knee. 

We can put all kinds of voodoo on this game: Dan Campbell is absolutely due to take the Lions on a run given how long it’s been since they won the NFC North and the Lions are really that good. In reality, though, I think the Rams are in a terrific spot.

You’re sending Stafford into a domed stadium that he is ridiculously comfortable in, and he has two tremendous receiving weapons, in Cooper Kupp and rookie sensation Puka Nacua, that can tear the Lions’ secondary apart. 

This is the Lions’ best season in nearly 30 years, but drawing the Rams was the worst luck they could have had.

Dolphins at Chiefs Over 44 (-110)

This line feels multiple points too low at first glance. The Chiefs have had a very solid defense all year, but have suffered multiple injuries on that side of the ball lately and the Dolphins should return Jaylen Waddle for the game.

Both the Chiefs and Dolphins have allowed a high number of attempted deep passes, and given the weapons on both sides, we should expect shots to be taken from both Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes, who are two of the better deep-ball passers in the league.

THE CRAZIEST STORY IN SPORTS MEDIA

Have you checked out our NFL podcast, Caps Off, yet? If not, you missed some SERIOUS drama.

Join Gen Z’s NFL Group Chat, with multiple episodes every week on Spotify, Apple and YouTube. Be sure to also follow along on TikTok, Instagram and Twitter!

The squad also goes live during a primetime game every week. Be sure to follow Caps Off on TikTok to join in on the action.