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​​📋 BACK OFFICE BUZZ RUNDOWN: MARCH 7, 2024

• ✍️ NFL Free Agency: What to Look for in Betting

• 📈 NFL Combine Winners & Losers

• 🏀 Duke vs UNC CBB Preview

• 🚀 On the Rise: 3 MLB Spring Training Stars & 1 Prop Bet

• 🍹 Arnold Palmer Invitational: PGA Picks of the Week

• 💥 NBA Futures Watch: Eastern Conference Chaos

We can almost smell March Madness around the corner – with a heck of a teaser game Saturday. 

But first, NFL’s silly season has started. While free agency doesn’t officially begin until Wednesday, March 13, plenty of buzz surrounds where top National Football League names will land. 

We’ll touch on these topics and cover a large list of other goings-on across the betting and sports worlds.

Welcome to another week in the fray.

✍️ NFL FREE AGENCY PREDICTIONS

💰 BEST BET: Derrick Henry ➡️ Houston Texans (+1000) DraftKings

NFL betting markets like Derrick Henry to the Ravens (+110) and Saquon Barkley to the Texans (-200), but I’m going with the former Titan staying in the AFC South by signing with Houston and this prop’s value. 

As pointed out by Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik facilitates a lot of outside zone rushes. This fits Henry’s skillset better than Barkley’s, requiring the back to hit the hole immediately. 

🤝 RB Saquon Barkley ➡️ ​​Los Angeles Chargers

Saquon is a perfect fit for the Chargers. New head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman want to emphasize the running game in Los Angeles. The team is set to move on from Austin Ekeler, looking for a more explosive replacement.

The Chargers can free up cap space by moving on from Mike Williams and Khalil Mack. We already saw them save $6.5 million by cutting linebacker Eric Kendricks. LA plans to make notable changes through free agency.

🤝 QB Kirk Cousins ➡️ Atlanta Falcons

Kirk Cousins looks set to test free agency with the Minnesota Vikings likely targeting a young quarterback in this year’s draft. New Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson came over from Sean McVay’s scheme with the Rams.

Cousins has played in this scheme within the Shanahan coaching tree under McVay, Kyle Shanahan, and Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell. Look for Cousins to address a major Atlanta need, replacing the nightmare situation of a Desmond Ridder-Taylor Heinicke QB room.

🤝 QB Russell Wilson ➡️ Las Vegas Raiders

Russell Wilson is looking for a new team after being released by the Broncos. Las Vegas makes sense as a landing spot: The Raiders’ current starter is Aidan O’Connell, and the team may struggle to trade up in the NFL Draft and position for one of the top four quarterbacks.

Even if Vegas could land the fourth QB on the board in J.J. McCarthy, Russ would fit in as a bridge to their new young signal-caller. (The Steelers are another option, but they seem to want to give Kenny Pickett one more chance.) — Frank Ammirante

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DUKE VS UNC IGNITES MARCH MADNESS 

Predicting the outcome of a North Carolina vs Duke game is about as easy as calling a coin toss. 

The long-time rivals have split their last 10 matchups, with the Tar Heels winning the only meeting of the 2023-24 season 93-84. Armando Bacot came up big for UNC in that game, logging 25 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists on 10-of-13 shooting. 

Even more crucial, however, was how the Tar Heels limited the Blue Devils to 26.3% from three-point range. On the year, Duke ranks 12th nationally at a 38% clip from beyond the arc.

North Carolina's perimeter defense has been a strength all season, holding opponents to 31% from three. Keeping the Blue Devils cold may well be their Achilles heel: Duke has lost just two games at home this year, including a stunner vs. Pitt, which ranks 28th in the country in opponent three-point percentage (30.7%).

Ultimately, I like the Tar Heels to win as likely road underdogs. UNC has the length to contend with the Blue Devils, and its bothersome defense may well be the reason why it pulls off the upset this Saturday. 

No lines have been released as of this writing, but watch how our CBB odds position this game. — Garrett Chorpenning

NORTH CAROLINA: SIGN UP TODAY TO BET ON SPORTS STARTING 3/11

The Tar Heel State will become the latest legal online betting state in the USA on Monday, March 11. 

Luckily, some of our favorite sportsbooks are offering signup promos right now.

Just in time for the ACC Tournament, March Madness, and all your favorite sporting events beyond.

Click to get a head-start with our top NC betting signup promos.

📈 NFL COMBINE WINNERS & LOSERS

​​😍 Winner: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

Can’t have a Winners of the Combine list without Xavier Worthy, who blazed an official 4.21 40-yard dash. That’s the fastest 40 time ever recorded at the Combine, eclipsing John Ross’ 4.22 from 2017.

The speedy Texas wideout, who measured at an impressive 9.37 RAS (Relative Athletic Score), has undoubtedly improved his draft stock during testing. Worthy might sneak into the back end of the NFL Draft’s first round, where WR-needy teams like the Bills and Chiefs will be looking at him.

😍 Winners: Teams Seeking A Round 1 Offensive Tackle

At least six offensive tackles might hear their names called on Night 1, if combine testing gives any indication. Joe Alt (Notre Dame), Olu Fashanu (Penn State), Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State), and Amarius Mims (Georgia) all put up high RAS scores.

The class as a whole looked loaded. I can easily see us getting multiple Pro Bowl careers out of this group.

😔 Loser: Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina

Many evaluators hoped the formerly heralded prospect would come to Indianapolis and prove that, despite his inconsistent college career, he still holds potential as an NFL starter.

Leaving the Combine, people remain unsure. Spencer Rattler finished last in nearly every QB testing drill. 

Unfortunately for him, this will not help ease the nervousness that teams will feel when evaluating whether he’ll become a franchise signal-caller.

😔 Loser: Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas

Ja’Tavion Sanders came into the Combine as arguably the second-best prospect among tight ends. Worthy’s college teammate didn’t enjoy Combine success, though, failing to test as well as other tight ends in attendance. 

Sanders ran a 4.69 in the 40, which is not too terrible. However, when you take into account the fact that his height and weight are on the lower end of the spectrum at 6-foot-3, 245 pounds, you would have hoped he would have a little more straight-line speed. 

TEs like Ben Sinnott and Theo Johnson outperformed him, and he may have fallen behind them. – Sam Wagman

⚾ 3 MLB SPRING TRAINING STARS TO WATCH

⬆️ ​​ James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals

Acquired in the Juan Soto deal, James Wood, an imposing 6-foot-6, 234-pounder, boasts significant power and speed potential. The No. 2 prospect in the Washington system slashed .474/.600/.947 with 3 HR and 5 RBI through his first nine exhibition games.

The Nationals could have an outfield spot open for him, especially if he continues to impress. He launched 18 homers and stole 10 bases in 87 games at Double-A Harrisburg in 2023. 

Cutting down on the 33.7 K% will be the biggest challenge for the 21-year-old when he starts to play regularly at the MLB level.

⬆️ ​​ Zack Gelof, 2B, Oakland Athletics

Baseball fans won’t find many reasons to watch the “Oakland” Athletics this season, which is a shame given their history. Still, anyone who tunes in will like what they see from the 24-year-old.

Zack Gelof has shot quickly through the Oakland minor league system since 2021 and is set to display his offensive versatility. The infielder hit .267 with 14 homers and 14 steals while fashioning a .337 OBP in 69 games with the A’s last year. 

Gelof carries a .389 average and .889 slugging percentage with seven runs scored through seven spring games.

⬆️ ​​ Tylor Megill, SP, New York Mets

Ttlor Megill has worked to learn Kodai Senga’s splitter. In turn, the righty appears likely to lock up the fifth starter’s job for New York heading into the regular season due to Senga’s shoulder injury.

The 28-year-old has already been an Opening Day and home-opener starter for the Mets, and he is not fazed by the bigger stage of New York, This spring, he was tied with Spencer Strider with a spring-leading 13 strikeouts after his first eight innings pitched.

➕ New York Mets Prop: Lose in Wild Card Series (+375) • BetMGM 

Once Senga returns, and if Megill emerges as a sleeper starter, the starting pitching can be respectable enough to take the Mets on a playoff run. 

Closer Edwin Diaz is healthy again. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor lead a lineup that could outperform expectations, especially if Francisco Alvarez breaks out and Starling Marte bounces back. — Scott Engel

🧢 ​​Follow our MLB betting tips all season.

🍹 PGA ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL PICKS

Coming off of the first event of the Florida Swing last week at the Cognizant Classic, all of the PGA Tour’s stars are headed up to Bay Hill Country Club in Orlando for one of the best events of the season: the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

This event always features a “who’s who” of the golfing world but also boasts one of the toughest tee-to-green tests on the Tour. 

To survive, players must be dynamite off the tee. This course rewards the long drivers of the Tour. 

However, you also need to be wary of the penal ryegrass rough that exists off some of the narrower fairways on the course.

With that in mind, my Arnold Palmer Invitational picks at DraftKings Sportsbook:

➕ Keegan Bradley: Top-20 Finish (+170)

I’d be remiss not to point out how well Keegan Bradley fits this course. Bradley hasn’t managed to get a win here yet, but he’s seemingly done everything else, with a 2nd, 3rd, and multiple 10th place finishes over the 12 appearances he’s made here.

I took Bradley +170 to make the top 20 here, because one of the strongest indicators of future success at Bay Hill is past success, and Bradley obviously has that in spades. He’s finished in the top 20 here in five of his 12 tries, he hasn’t missed the cut here since 2011, and he has been playing decently solid golf this season.

Bradley ranks sixth in my model this week, ranking strongly in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, Off the Tee, and Fairway Proximity from 200+ yards. I fully expect him to put a nice week together at this course as he typically does.

If we’re looking at some outright plays to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I’m definitely going to be looking towards the top end of the odds board this week. Like I noted above, this golf course is a brute of a test.

Kurt Kitayama winning at 250/1 here last year shocked a lot of people, and I can’t see that happening again. Other than him, it was all the top guys at the top of the board.

➕ Viktor Hovland: Win Arnold Palmer Invitational (+1600)

This was one of the first stops last year that showed Viktor Hovland was on his way to the top of the golf world and helped foreshadow his meteoric end to the 2023 season. It’s a perfect place for me to pick him to win his first title of the 2024 season.

Hovland hasn’t been in the greatest of form lately, yet he’s shown out at Bay Hill in the last two seasons, with a second-place finish in 2022 and a T10 last season. 

As I’ve said, course history is incredibly important for golf betting, and Bay Hill ranks as the third-most predictive out of 44 courses on the PGA Tour. 

Hovland is THE best golfer in this field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee when it comes to the Florida Swing over the past couple of seasons. This should help him get into a great position to put his rock-solid approach game to work. — Sam Wagman

🏀 NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE WINNER CHECK-IN

A recent 11-game win streak has positioned the Boston Celtics (-110) as the clear favorites to win the Eastern Conference at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

As the C’s lose betting value, sharp bettors should move to find better returns on a possible East-winning sleeper. Heck, the Cleveland Cavaliers toppled Boston without Donovan Mitchell on Tuesday, so the Celtics are human.

⛹️ Milwaukee Bucks (+290)

Won their first six games coming out of the All-Star break and even beat the Clippers without Giannis Antetokounmpo.

⛹️ New York Knicks (+1000)

The Knicks present a unique value opportunity based on the assumption that all of their top players will return to the court come playoff time. Don’t forget: New York went 14-2 in January.

⛹️ ​​Miami Heat (+1000)

Boston already knows about “Playoff Jimmy” Butler. Miami is rounding into postseason form again, having won seven of its last eight games. – Scott Engel