Bet on These Player Incentives for Week 18

Week 18 in the NFL season is a great time to place your bets because you have a chance to capitalize on players trying to hit season milestones or contract incentives.

This is especially the case if the team in question has already been eliminated from the playoffs.

The perfect example of this is with DK Metcalf, who is only 61 yards away from his third consecutive 1,000+ yard season and fourth of his career. With the Seahawks already eliminated, you can bet that Geno Smith will pepper Metcalf with targets.

You can still get Metcalf between 60-62 yards on his player props if you shop around sportsbooks.

Here are some other player incentives to keep in mind for Week 18:

• Mike Evans is 85 yards away from his 11th straight 1,000+ yard season.

• Zach Ertz can get three $250K bonuses if he gets 9 REC, 90 YDS, and 2 TD.

• J.K. Dobbins can secure a $150K bonus with 58 rushing yards.

• Kyler Murray can lock in $750K in bonuses with 50 rushing yards and a TD.

• Courtland Sutton can trigger $500K in bonuses with 82 receiving yards.

Remember that sportsbooks are aware of this too, so make sure that the line is right before placing your bets!

📋 BACK OFFICE BUZZ: THE RUNDOWN 1/4/25

• NFL Staff Picks

• NFL Saturday

• Sunday Night Football

• Best Sportsbook Promos

💰 Best Sportsbook Promos

🏈 NFL Staff Picks

Think you've got what it takes to outsmart your co-workers with your NFL ATS picks this season? Us too.

This season, The Game Day's staff will be picking every NFL game against the spread in a season-long competition that will run through Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans. We'll also break down our best ATS bet for each week, and see who can compile the best record over the course of the year.

Whether you're playing in your office pick'em pool or a high-profile ATS picks contest, we'll give you all the insight you need to stay ahead of the game all season long.

Here’s a sneak peek of some of our locks of the week for Week 18:

Jets +1 (-112) vs Dolphins

There’s nothing the Jets do better as a franchise than win meaningless football games that negatively affect their draft position. And since it doesn’t sound like Aaron Rodgers will be returning next season, he has no reason to hold back in what could be his final NFL game.

The Dolphins need a win and a Broncos loss to reach the postseason, but Denver is a 10.5-point favorite against a Kansas City squad playing its backups. Miami is likely to start backup quarterback Tyler Huntley since Tua Tagovailoa is still dealing with a hip injury, and it needed overtime with Tagovailoa to beat the Jets at home in early December.

I’m backing New York to pull off this minor upset, with Rodgers hitting Davante Adams for his 500th career TD pass in the process. – JOHN ARLIA

Buccaneers -13.5 (-110) vs Saints

This is a massive spread, but it doesn’t feel crazy to suggest that Tampa Bay could win this one by 20-plus. New Orleans has nothing to play for and has already lost to the Buccaneers by 24 once this season, while Baker Mayfield’s squad has a lot on the line.

With a win, Tampa Bay will clinch a playoff spot and wrap up the NFC South. Should the Bucs lose, they could still find themselves on the outside looking in when it’s all said and done.

Nothing about this New Orleans team suggests it’ll play spoiler. Back the Buccaneers to win big. – GARRETT CHORPENNING

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🏈 NFL Saturday

We’ve got a pair of AFC North games on Saturday with the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Cleveland Browns at 4:30 p.m. ET and the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers at 8 p.m. ET.

What’s interesting here is that the Ravens can clinch the AFC North title with a win over the Browns. This looks like a highly likely outcome because Baltimore is 20-point home favorites in this game.

If that happens, the Steelers would have virtually nothing to play for against the Bengals, which could make them rest their starters, resulting in an easy Cincinnati win.

However, it’s worth noting that if Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati and the Chargers beat the Raiders on Sunday, the Steelers would fall to the 6th seed.

This is noteworthy because it would mean that the Steelers would have a tougher matchup vs the Ravens instead of the Texans.

While that may not be enough for Mike Tomlin to risk injury with his starters should the Ravens beat the Browns, it’s still notable.

In any case, we’ve got playoff implications on an NFL Saturday. What more can you ask for in Week 18?

🏈 Sunday Night Football

It all comes down to this. The Week 18 edition of Sunday Night Football will see Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings (14-2) visit Ford Field to take on Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions (14-2) in the final game of the NFL regular season, with the NFC North title and No. 1 seed in the conference on the line.

The Vikings enter this titanic clash on a nine-game winning streak after fending off a second-half comeback from the rival Packers on Sunday in a 27-25 victory. Meanwhile, the Lions got revenge for last season's NFC Championship Game, defeating the 49ers 40-34 in San Francisco on Monday night.

SNF Score Prediction: Vikings 34, Lions 31

If the first game between these teams is any indication, this winner-take-all showdown should be compelling.

The Lions defeated the previously unbeaten Vikings 31-29 in Week 7, as Jake Bates connected on a 44-yard field goal with 15 seconds remaining to tilt the back-and-forth contest in Detroit's favor. Both teams held (and lost) double-digit leads in a frantic game that was as close on the stat sheet as the scoreboard.

So, what has changed since then? The easy answer to that question is injuries. Dan Campbell's squad has been decimated, especially on defense. The Lions could field an entire defensive lineup with players on Injured Reserve, which explains why Aaron Glenn's unit has struggled so mightily over the last month. The potential return of linebacker Alex Anzalone would be a welcome boost, but the team's top tackler from the previous few seasons won't solve the issues up front and in the secondary.

Meanwhile, the Vikings are relatively healthy. Their offense has scored 27-plus points in each of their last four games and should be able to continue that streak against a defense that surrendered 34 points to San Francisco, 31 to Green Bay, and 48 to Buffalo in December. Minnesota HC Kevin O'Connell has put quarterback Sam Darnold in positions to excel all season long, and he should be able to cook up some explosive plays against a Lions defense that doesn't differentiate its scheme a whole lot.

That isn't the case as much with Brian Flores' blitz-heavy unit, which serves up some different looks at the line of scrimmage. Although Detroit's offense has been nearly unstoppable at Ford Field, where they average 35.9 points per game this season, Minnesota's defense is more likely to force a key stop or turnover, and that could make the difference in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Let’s give you a preview of your best bets for this game:

SNF Over/Under Pick: Vikings @ Lions Over 56.5 Points (-110)

This total is ridiculously high, but it's hard to take the Under when Detroit has both scored and allowed at least 30 points in three of its last four games.

The Lions have converted 68.1% of their offensive red-zone trips into touchdowns this season, while their defense has surrendered six on 73.3% of opponents' red-zone drives over the last three weeks.

The first meeting went Over this number, and I expect this one to do the same on a fast track.