Bijan Will Prove Arthur Smith WRONG + Matchups to Exploit

We get back to our regularly scheduled programming of boring Thursday Night Football games with tonight’s stinker, as this game features two teams with a combined three wins, struggling quarterbacks on both sides, and an extreme lack of consistent offense.

Dive into this week’s newsletter for more on Panthers-Bears, a look ahead at the Sunday slate, and a Week 9 panic meter ⤵️

TNF PREVIEW

Justin Fields is out for this game, forcing Tyson Bagent into action once again. The rookie has shown flashes but has not been consistent enough for the Bears to show much promise, providing us with plenty of reasons to fade the Bears in this spot.

Chicago has struggled offensively with Bagent, as he and the offense have averaged 20 points per game in his three starts. Khalil Herbert is not ready to return, so D’Onta Foreman will once again carry the load, sprinkled with a bit of Roschon Johnson. The Panthers’ run defense has been much better since the bye, which is bad news for the Bears.

On the Panthers' side, Bryce Young vacillates between looking like he's embracing the NFL game pace and looking like an undrafted free agent, but he's coming off an ugly multi-interception loss to the Colts last week and should be eyeing this game as a nice bounce back.

The Panthers have desperately needed production from their receivers outside of Adam Thielen and this could be a nice place for it to come, with the Bears giving up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers.

I think this is a close game all the way, and either team could win, but I'm going to go with the team that's getting four points here in the Panthers.

RANKINGS INSIGHTS

Frank Ammirante is one of the top fantasy football rankers in the industry for the 2023 season. He placed in the top two in the FantasyPros Accuracy rankings for Weeks 4 and 5, and he has finished in the top 15 in four of the past six weeks and in the top 25 in five of the last six. Here are some highlighted plays from Frank for Week 10, and you can find all of his rankings here. 

• We could finally see a spike week from Trevor Lawrence against a 49ers defense that has been picked apart by Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins in their last two games. This game has one of the highest totals on the slate and should be competitive, which bodes well for Lawrence.

• Tony Pollard should finally hit his ceiling with the Cowboys as heavy home favorites against an abysmal Giants team. Look for a heavy workload from Pollard as Dallas plays with a lead.

• We've seen the 49ers get burned downfield by receivers like Ja'Marr Chase and Jordan Addison in their last two games. I'm betting on Calvin Ridley doing the same in this potential shootout.

• Gerald Everett looks like a nice streamer in what could be a high-scoring game vs the Lions. Detroit is tied for 28th against tight ends this year.

START/SIT WEEK 10

Start/sit decisions don’t have to be tough! Michelle Magdziuk makes it easy for you with “Fire & Ice”, her industry-standard start/sits piece.

Start: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (@ ARI)

By now, we’ve probably all heard Arthur Smith’s ridiculous reasoning as to why he prefers to not use Robinson as much, basically stating that when he is away from the play, the offense as a whole flourishes because the defense hyper-focuses on Robinson.

Well, the media has absolutely cooked him for that response, with plenty of reasons why Robinson should be a focal point, and he’ll get a great chance to prove to his coach this weekend why he should be utilized more in a game against Arizona, who are giving up the sixth-most rush yards per game this season.

Sit: Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders (vs NYJ)

Let’s put this very simply: Davante Adams will be on one side, most likely facing off against Sauce Gardner, who serves as the CB1 for the Jets and was the Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2022. He’s the seventh-highest-graded CB in the NFL this season, per PFF.

On the other side is where Meyers will line up, as he’s spent roughly 60% of his snaps on the opposite perimeter from Davante. Facing off against him will be D.J. Reed, who is now graded as the best cornerback in the NFL.

Meyers could be in trouble here, as Reed has shut down plenty of great players in 2023 and is in line to shut him down as well.

FOUR FEATURED ITEMS FOR THE SUNDAY SLATE

1. Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals: After coming off a major breakthrough performance in Week 9, C.J. Stroud now takes on the resurgent Bengals, who are looking like a top team in the AFC again. The Over of 47.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook seems to be a good wager,  and even though Cincinnati should win, the spread of 6.5 leans toward Houston. In their last six games, the Texans have four wins and a pair of two-point losses even though the Bengals are easily the best team they will have faced since that stretch began. 

2. Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens:  The Ravens seem to have developed a habit of blowing out quality opponents. They beat Cleveland by 25 points in the first meeting of the season. This is a matchup of the NFL’s two best defenses, so even if Baltimore doesn’t score another one-sided win, I am comfortable with the Under of 38.5. These rivals average a combined 31.8 points allowed. 

3. San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars: Both of these contenders went into a Week 9 bye on differing paths. The Jaguars have won five straight games, while the 49ers have dropped three in a row. The Niners should stick close, but taking the Jaguars on the moneyline at +142 is just too tempting. 

4. Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers: This will be advertised as a marquee matchup between the rising Lions and Justin Herbert. But Los Angeles is an annual disappointment and I am not wowed by the win over the Jets. Lock in the Lions at -3. . - Scott Engel

SLEEPERS AND BUSTS

Every week on TheGameDay.com, Scott ‘The King” Engel provides his full rundown of fantasy football sleepers and busts. Scott is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Hall of Fame.

😴 SLEEPER: Will Levis - After delivering a dazzling debut with four TD passes, Levis didn’t muster a single one against a swarming Pittsburgh defense in Week 9. Yet he still demonstrated the resiliency to keep the Titans in the game, and there’s no doubt he has pumped some new life into the long-dormant passing element of the team’s offense.  

Tampa Bay ranks 29th in Fantasy Points Per Game, and its eighth-ranked run defense will be ready to take on Derrick Henry now that Vita Vea is healthy again. This matchup points to Levis attacking the Buccaneers’ pass defense with some success, and he might hit on a few deep shots to elevate his fantasy football performance. 

😴 SLEEPER: Zach Charbonnet - Geno Smith is drawing a lot of external heat for his inconsistent play, and the Seattle offense tumbled to new depths in Week 9, failing to score a TD in the second-worst loss of the Pete Carroll era. As local media have suggested and Carroll has indicated, reestablishing the running game can help achieve better offensive balance and ease pressure on the QB. 

The Seahawks’ 2023 second-round pick has mostly performed well when given opportunities, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Washington ranks 25th in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to running backs over the past four weeks. 

Kenneth Walker III will remain Seattle’s lead RB, but Charbonnet can be very efficient and productive as the ground game becomes a larger part of the offense this week. 

💥 BUST: Keaton Mitchell - Mitchell was one of the prime fantasy football waiver wire pickups of Week 10 after his breakout performance against a usually solid Seattle run defense. But he will continue to be part of a committee and should be streamed in better matchups. 

The Browns rank fourth in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to running backs and will be prepared to limit Mitchell after watching his film from last week. There are better games ahead for the undrafted rookie, but sit him if you can in what may be a lower-scoring divisional showdown.

💥 BUST: Cade Otton -The second-year TE caught two TD passes in Week 9, and he has been targeted six times in each of his past three games. The Titans, however, are the only team that has not allowed a TD to a TE and rank second in FFPG allowed to the position.

MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

Each week, Sam Wagman takes you through some of his favorite fantasy football matchups to exploit. Whether it’s a stat-based take or a pure gut feeling, Sam makes it easy for you to make tough lineup calls with his Matchups to Exploit article.

Jaguars WRs vs San Francisco CBs

This is a great spot for the Jaguars' WR trio, as they finally get Zay Jones back in the lineup from the injured list. What awaits them here would have once been seen as an extremely tough matchup against the 49ers, but this season they have taken a major step back, especially more downfield.

In their last three games, the 49ers have given up an average of 273 passing yards per game, the seventh-highest number in the NFL during that time, which is a stark difference from earlier in the season where they allowed just over 200 yards per game. This is problematic because teams have been finding success against them in chunk plays.

The Jaguars rank as the 19th-heaviest passing team this season, but they rank sixth in Pass Rate over Expected, and they should lean on that here against a San Francisco defense that is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position over the last six games.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England vs Indianapolis DL

The Colts have been attackable via the air this season, so their rushing defense goes a bit overlooked, but it is sneakily pretty bad. Teams have scored an NFL-high 15 rushing touchdowns against them, and they give up an explosive rush (10+ yards) on 11.7% of carries, which ranks eighth-highest in the league.

Enter Stevenson, who has been a bit shaky to start the season but is starting to find a groove in the second half. He has six or more targets in three of his last four games, and he popped in the rushing game in last week's matchup, with 87 rush yards and a score on nine carries. 

Against an Indianapolis rush defense that gives up plenty of work in the red zone, Rhamondre can have a strong game.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK 

I love the Under in the Packers vs Steelers game this week.

Green Bay (Under: 5-3) and Pittsburgh (Under: 7-1) have consistently played in low-scoring games this season. 

Jordan Love (65.4 PFF Passing Grade, 27th) vs Kenny Pickett (64.9 PFF Passing Grade, 28th) is a matchup of two of the worst quarterbacks in the league.

I’m also looking at Under in the Jets vs Raiders game. We're targeting Raiders rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell (46.8 PFF Passing Grade, 50th) against an elite Jets pass defense.

New York has limited Justin Herbert (136 yards), Jalen Hurts (three interceptions), and Patrick Mahomes (6.77 yards per attempt) this season.

It's going to be tough for O'Connell to do much through the air against this unit.

On top of that, Zach Wilson hasn't been good at all for New York, as the team has combined for only 19 points in their last two games.

WEEK 9 PANIC METER

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