The Buffalo Bills Are ... 👍/👎

Welcome back to another edition of Fantasy Football Buzz from The Game Day. As you know, everyone and their mother has their hot takes regarding best bets, fantasy lineups and locks. Sometimes, that advice works out. Other times, I’m left feeling like … WTF?! Why did I listen to that random person with five TikTok followers?

Well, lucky for you, we have one of the best in the biz at the helm of this week’s newsletter. Frank Ammirante is a nationally ranked fantasy football expert who finished second in rankings accuracy at FantasyPros for both Weeks 4 and 5 of the NFL season. All that to say, you can trust his advice below.

Keep scrolling, and take it away, Frank 👇

THINGS WE LEARNED IN WEEK 7 🧠

The Saints Continue to Struggle on Offense

Derek Carr averaged only 5.5 yards per attempt in the Saints’ 31-24 loss to the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football.

The veteran quarterback now has a 62.9 Passing Grade per PFF, which ranks 24th among quarterbacks.

This is great news for Alvin Kamara, who continues to rack up checkdown catches, hauling in 12-of-14 targets for 91 yards vs. Jacksonville.

On the flip side, Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are hurt by the lack of downfield passes and scoring opportunities.

The Chargers Miss Mike Williams

Justin Herbert managed only 259 passing yards with two interceptions in a 31-17 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.

Since losing Mike Williams in Week 3, Los Angeles has combined for only 58 points in three games.

With rookie Quentin Johnston not living up to expectations, the Chargers are struggling in the absence of a viable downfield threat.

We need to temper our expectations for Herbert and this passing game moving forward, at least until Johnston starts to show more.

4 PLAYERS YOU NEED TO TARGET ON WAIVERS 🎯

Every week, our Scott Engel dives deep into the waiver wire to scour players that you should be picking up to get ahead of the rest of your leaguemates. Let’s take a look at this week’s top adds. 👇

QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (49%)

Murray might finally make his long-awaited return from a torn ACL by Week 10 when the Cardinals take on the Atlanta Falcons. He should be ready for strong fantasy starting consideration by Week 11 or 12.

Fantasy players simply must move on the nearing return of a proven dual-threat QB. Murray averaged 18.9 fantasy PPG in 11 games last year, which ranked seventh among regular starters.

Kyler Murray Free Agent Budget Bid: 19% of your available budget

RB Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (36%)

Frank Ammirante was insistent all along leading up to Week 7 that Henderson would be the leading fantasy producer among the Rams’ RBs. He was added in many leagues but went unclaimed in enough leagues that I must feature him here.

Henderson, who was coming off the street after not having played since last November, impressively returned to show he was in quick game condition. He rushed for 65 yards on 18 carries and a TD against the Steelers and should continue to operate as the lead RB for Los Angeles while Kyren Williams (ankle) is on injured reserve.

If Henderson went unclaimed in your league in Week 7, then bid aggressively while keeping enough FAAB for the rest of the season.

Darrell Henderson FAAB Bid: 35% of your available budget

WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (52%)

The rookie came through with a convincing and sparkling performance in Week 7. Against the NFL’s best pass defense entering the week, Downs busted out to catch a 59-yard TD pass on his way to a five-reception, 125-yard outing.

Downs has been targeted six-plus times in each of his past three games, and he had 97 receiving yards in Week 5. The Colts’ WRs will be busy enough with Gardner Minshew at QB in the weeks ahead, and Downs has arrived as a fantasy WR candidate.

Be sure to check where Downs will place in our Week 8 fantasy football rankings.

Josh Downs FAAB Bid: 19% of your available budget

TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (41%)

Those who remained patient with Kincaid saw him finally deliver on the promise in Week 7 as the first-year TE caught all eight of his targets for 75 yards. With the news that Dawson Knox will miss time due to wrist surgery, he should be a waiver wire priority if you do not roster one of the top players at the position.

Dalton Kincaid FAAB Bid: 24% of your available budget

OVERREACTION/UNDERREACTION

Overreaction: The Bills Aren’t as Good as We Thought

The Bills followed up a close win over the lowly Giants in Week 6 with a disappointing road loss against the Patriots on Sunday.

Buffalo has now fallen to 4-3 on the season, one game back of the division-leading Dolphins (5-2).

However, this is still a team that ranks third in overall DVOA, per FTN.com. While the Bills are inconsistent, they remain Super Bowl contenders.

Buffalo’s recent struggles have helped Josh Allen continue to crush in fantasy. He’s now averaging 23.3 points per game, which is QB1 overall.

Underreaction: Time to Panic on Jordan Love

Jordan Love is one of those rare quarterbacks who performs well in fantasy (18.8 PPG, QB7) but struggles with his real-life production.

The Packers’ first-year starter now has a 60.6 Passing Grade at PFF, which ranks 27th among all quarterbacks.

It’s especially discouraging to see how Love struggled against a poor Broncos’ defense, throwing for only 180 yards (5.8 Y/A) while leading the Packers to 17 points.

With each passing week, it’s becoming evident that Love is not the answer in Green Bay.

HINDSIGHT REPORT

We’re officially a quarter into the NFL season! Every Tuesday, Frank Ammirante will use the powers of hindsight to look back on players we thought would be good for fantasy this season but aren’t, and vice versa.

Coming into the season, I was super high on Calvin Ridley, excited to watch the former Falcons’ top wideout surge to a bounce-back year while catching passes from emerging stud Trevor Lawrence.

After all, we had seen Ridley produce at a high level in fantasy football in the past with an overall WR4 finish under his belt, back in 2020.

However, we’re now seven weeks into the season and Ridley hasn’t performed up to expectations.

Christian Kirk (14.7 fantasy PPG) has outproduced Ridley (11.0 PPG), continuing to demonstrate that the former Cardinal is Lawrence’s preferred target.

It’s time to view Ridley as more of an upside WR3 moving forward, looking like a better version of Gabe Davis as a boom-or-bust option and downfield threat.

EARLY BETTING LINES

Each Tuesday, Frank Ammirante will take a peek at the week ahead’s betting spread and total lines on our partner FanDuel to determine which lines you should grab ahead of time.

Bills -7.5 (-115) vs Buccaneers

The market is a bit low on the Bills following their loss to the Patriots (2-5) and close victory over the Giants (2-5), but this sets up as a bounce-back spot for Buffalo.

The Bucs currently rank 21st in Pass EPA on defense, according to RBSDM.com. That’s bad news against Josh Allen and company.

It’s also worth noting that the Bills have won 14 of their last 20 home games by eight or more points.

BUY LOW, SELL HIGH

BUY WR Davante Adams

Davante Adams has averaged only 10.4 fantasy points per game since Week 4, which ranks as WR42 during that stretch.

Part of the problem has been the fact that Jimmy Garoppolo has missed two of those games, but the veteran should be back under center for Week 8.

There’s a chance that your leaguemate with Adams is feeling a bit down on the former Packer due to this recent stretch of poor production.

Perhaps you can swing a deal for Adams by offering a breakout wideout coming off a strong performance, like Puka Nacua. Throw in a backup running back like Tyjae Spears to act as a sweetener.

SELL WR Christian Kirk

Now looks like the perfect time to sell Christian Kirk, who is putting up 16.8 PPG since Week 2, which is the 13th-most among wideouts.

While Kirk looks like the top target in this passing game, the Jags often like to spread the ball around, finding Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram.

It’s also worth noting that Zay Jones has missed four of these games. Once the former Raider is able to return, that could cut into Kirk’s production.

I’d try to trade Kirk for a receiver that has slowed down in recent weeks, like Marquise Brown. Kyler Murray is almost ready to return and the Cardinals reportedly have no plans to trade Brown.

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