Are the Chargers THAT BAD? + Throw All Your $$$ at This TE

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What do you think is more likely to happen: I hit a 15-leg parlay or the Pistons win one singular basketball game?

Seriously, I have not seen anything bleaker in professional sports in a LONG time. A 2-24 record and a historic 23-GAME LOSING STREAK. Relegate them to the G-League, for real.

While the Pistons may look like absolute 🐶 💩, a young Detroit athlete on the NFL side of things is being WILDLY overlooked. Tap into this week’s Back Office Buzz for waiver wire pickups, bets you need to hammer, and betting lines that you can expose. 👇

PLAYERS YOU NEED TO TARGET ON WAIVERS 🎯

Every week, our Scott Engel dives deep into the waiver wire to scour players that you should be picking up to get ahead of the rest of your leaguemates. Let’s take a look at this week’s top adds.

Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals (44% rostered in Yahoo leagues)

Jake Browning passed for 300 yards for the second time in three weeks while leading the Bengals to an overtime win against the Vikings in Week 15. He has passed for two TDs in each of his past two games and also added in two bonus rushing TDs in his two games prior to Sunday. 

Backup QBs sometimes falter after playing well for a few games, but Browning seems to be poised and confident while fitting comfortably into the Cincinnati offense. He is not an upside play. However, Browning should provide a quality floor in Week 16 against a Steelers defense that will spend a lot of time on the field and has allowed 20 TD passes, which ranks 25th in the NFL. 

Utilize Browning as a one-week streamer if needed because of QB injuries. You might want to pivot off him in Week 17 against Kansas City, though. 

Jake Browning Free Agent Budget Bid: 35% of your available budget

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (20%)

Pats QB Bailey Zappe has taken to Hunter Henry as a preferred playmaker. The TE caught two TD passes in Week 15 and then seven of nine targets for 66 yards and a TD in Week 16 with another TD reception. If your team still has shaky options at the thinnest position in fantasy football, Henry is a must-add. 

Hunter Henry FAAB Bid: 70% of your available budget

Noah Brown, Houston Texans (46%)

After two games in which he did not catch a pass due to a recent return from a knee injury and a tough matchup in bad weather with the Jets, Noah Brown rediscovered his better form in a Week 15 Texans win at Tennessee. He was clearly the top WR option for Houston, catching eight of 11 targets for 82 yards and a TD. 

Brown, a big target with downfield playmaking abilities, performed well with backup QB Case Keenum as the starter. He has a more challenging draw against Cleveland in Week 16 but faces the Titans again in Week 17. 

C.J. Stroud returning from a concussion next week obviously will help Brown, and he can still be a quality option for Week 17 even if he is the No. 2 WR with Nico Collins (calf) possibly back in action. If Collins misses Week 16, you can strongly consider starting Brown because of potential volume of targets. 

Noah Brown FAAB Bid: 65% of your available budget

Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens (13%)

The season-ending knee injury for Keaton Mitchell puts Justice Hill back into position to share some work with Gus Edwards in the Baltimore backfield. Edwards is only available in 30 percent of leagues, yet do check your free agent list to make him the priority add if he is on the waiver wire. 

Hill may be in line for close to or more than double-digit carries in the next two games, and he has seen some occasional goal-line chances this season, too. If you have to dig deep for RB help, then add Hill. 

Baltimore faces San Francisco in Week 16, but the 49ers did allow two rushing TDs to Arizona on Sunday. If Hill posts adequate totals against the Niners, you may consider him for championship week when the Ravens take on the Dolphins. 

The Ravens have the fifth-best rushing offense in the NFL, so any RB they use frequently has to be considered. It will just be a question of how much work Hill gets against the 49ers. 

Justice Hill FAAB Bid: 45% of your available budget

OVERREACTION & UNDERREACTION

Every Tuesday, we go through our favorite overreaction and underreaction because what fantasy football players don’t react rationally to every bit of news they hear and see?!

Overreaction: The MVP race is all but over

Yeah, yeah, I know. Brock Purdy won the MVP in Week 15. He ranks first in a litany of statistical categories and his 49ers are 11-3, showing no signs of stopping down. 

However, I wouldn’t say that Purdy, who is a -190 favorite currently for the award, is locked in just yet. Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen all are still in play with three weeks remaining in the regular season and have their own cases to make.

Despite Purdy leading in all the statistical categories, I would still say that in the traditional sense of the MVP award, he doesn’t necessarily earn the win right there due to how incredible the team and coaching around him is, and yes, the voters can ding him for that. Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle are massive factors in how smoothly the 49ers offense can run. We saw what a change they made earlier in the season when both Williams and Samuel missed time: the 49ers lost all three of those games.

Underreaction: Jahmyr Gibbs > Bijan Robinson in fantasy football going forward

This could be a very wild one. The entire fantasy football industry stumped for Bijan as a world-beater workhorse RB while Jahmyr Gibbs was highly desired but viewed as more of a complementary back to David Montgomery.

However, Arthur Smith has completely ruined the image of Robinson for some people. While I still view Bijan as a very high-end fantasy star, Gibbs is right up there next to him for me, and I wonder if Gibbs isn’t in a much better situation for the next few years. Not only is he a stud in the receiving game, he has shown himself to be a very very good back at finding holes in the run game.

The Lions are on the path to being a very good offense for fantasy football for the next few years at least, and I love what Gibbs is able to do despite not being the size for which many look. The quarterback situation in Atlanta worries me, and despite Bijan looking just fine from a box score perspective this season, I wonder if he carries the consistency that Gibbs will give you.

I want to close this out by making sure people know that I am not dunking on Bijan in any way here. He’s an incredible talent, but he’s trapped in a bad situation right now, and I just think Gibbs is right there with him.

THE HINDSIGHT REPORT 🔮📃

We’re now in the home stretch of the NFL season! Every Tuesday, Frank Ammirante and Sam Wagman will use the powers of hindsight to look back on players we thought would be good for fantasy this season but aren’t, and vice versa.

The curious case of Rachaad White is on my mind this morning as I write today’s newsletter. In two short months, White has gone from the most overvalued workhorse RB in fantasy football — and a possibly overvalued pick in the sixth round of your fantasy drafts — to a league-winner, all the while still ranking in the bottom ten in Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE).

White came into the NFL last season as a combo back, sporting solid receiving traits after putting up great numbers at Arizona State. He wasn’t great at pass protection, though, and some draft scouts thought he might not achieve a three-down role because of this.

Fast forward to the 2023 season —  after an underwhelming rookie campaign — and White came out of the gate with some poor rushing performances. He was repeating some of the same issues he had coming into the NFL that showed in his rookie season, like not being able to burst through contact at the line of scrimmage and routinely losing yards.

Something changed around the midway point of this season, though. White has become a model of consistency, putting up at least 100 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in nine straight games. 

He is the engine of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense as they make a push for the NFC South and has become a BEAST for fantasy football, which will be especially helpful for fantasy managers in the playoffs this week.

Is White a one-season wonder? The Buccaneers are certainly in a position to try and compete, and White could play a key role as the workhorse running back, a very rare position in today’s NFL.

OK, BET 💰

Each Tuesday, Sam Wagman will take a peek at the week ahead’s betting spread and total lines on our partner FanDuel to determine which lines you should grab ahead of time.

Bills -10.5 at Chargers

Sure, this number has been bet down from the 13.5 that dropped on Sunday night by sharp bettors to start the week. It makes a lot of sense: Bet on the undervalued Chargers team that may have caught a bad break and just fired their head coach and fade the Bills team that hasn’t looked great all year except for the last two games.

I’m going in the opposite direction though, because I love to be contrarian in spots like these and grab as much value as I possibly can with a team I still believe to be one of the best in the NFL from top to bottom. Joe Brady has shown that he can be a competent interim OC over the last few weeks and has the offense humming right now. 

This Chargers team really is not that good without any of its stars (who knows if Keenan Allen will be back), and I’m not sure that the team’s outrageously bad pass defense that just allowed Aidan O’Connell to pass for four touchdowns can stop Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Co.

Colts -1.5 at Falcons

Why is this number so low? We just witnessed what is hopefully the beginning of the end for Arthur Smith’s head coaching spot in the Week 15 loss to the Carolina Panthers, and the Colts just steamrolled the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Anything can happen when Gardner Minshew is your quarterback, I suppose, but the Colts are a much better team than the Falcons are right now, especially if Michael Pittman can return from the nasty hit he suffered last week. 

The Colts have real momentum to win the AFC South now, especially since it’s a three-way tie. The Jaguars may currently hold the tie-breaker, but the Colts’ schedule is somewhat simpler to end the season and I expect them to fight hard to get the AFC South crown.

Jaguars @ Buccaneers: Over 43.5

This should be a funner game than the total suggests. The Jaguars rank fourth in Pass Rate Over Expected this season while the Buccaneers have just been a cellar-dweller in terms of passing defense all season long. The Bucs’ defense has allowed the second-most deep passing touchdowns this season, per FTN, which should be a green flag for this Jaguars’ passing attack that needs a jump-start.

We just watched Baker Mayfield waltz into Lambeau Field and post a perfect 158.3 passing rating, something that has never been done by a visiting QB at Lambeau, throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns. Mike Evans is still a beast, and we already talked plenty about Rachaad White.

Also, this Jaguars’ defense is very beatable. They’ve allowed nearly 30 points per game over the last three games, and I could see Baker going for another solid game here.

NOT-SO-HOT-STOVE 🥶⚾️

OK, so obviously, I am very impatient because even though Shohei Ohtani’s historic contract announcement came just 10 days ago, I NEED the stove to get hot again.

Tell me where Yoshinobu Yamamoto is heading. Give me a Cody Bellinger rumor. I need something.

Because this is just unacceptable. 👇

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