Are We Crazy for Betting Against Mahomes?!

We’ve reached the time of year when it’s dark at the glorious hour of 4:30 p.m. While you may think of this as the worst feeling, I can one-up you. Watching my live bet on the Ravens crumble on Sunday was absolutely disgusting.

I’m going to turn it around this week and get cracking ahead of fantasy football playoffs. Get your team in the right place because, next week, we’re sitting in front of the TV all day in a turkey- and mashed potato-induced coma.

Before we dive into this week’s newsletter, please settle this office debate.

OK, that’s enough food talk. Let’s dive into football. Make sure you scroll to the bottom to tell us about your fantasy team. 👇

4 PLAYERS YOU NEED TO TARGET ON WAIVERS

Every week, our Scott Engel dives deep into the waiver wire to scour players who you should be picking up to get ahead of the rest of your league mates. Let’s take a look at this week’s top adds.

Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys (6% rostered in sleeper leagues)

Rico Dowdle rushed for a garbage time TD in Sunday’s laugher against the New York Giants. However, he also outperformed Tony Pollard, and it’s possible that we could see more of a shift to a timeshare very soon. Dowdle rushed for 79 yards on 12 carries and was involved early while showing off more burst and elusiveness than Pollard. 

The regular Dallas starter disappointed again in what was supposed to be a prime matchup, rushing for 55 yards on 15 carries with no touchdowns. Dowdle deserves a chance to see what he can add to the offense, and he might get more opportunities to do so.  

Rico Dowdle FAAB Bid: 10% of your available budget

Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys (49%)

The six-time 1,000-yard receiver took some time to get comfortable with Dallas, yet he finally busted out in Week 10, catching nine of 10 targets for 173 yards and a TD. While he may not reach such statistical levels again this year, Brandin Cooks has caught TD passes in three of his last four games and is certainly re-emerging as a quality fantasy WR3 option.

Brandin Cooks FAAB Bid: 13% of your available budget

Noah Brown, Houston Texans (36%)

Noah Brown has come through with a pair of outstanding performances as the Texans have dealt with some recent WR injuries. 

In Week 9, the ex-Cowboy caught all six targets for 153 yards, including a 75-yard TD reception. In Sunday’s thrilling upset win over Cincinnati, he finished with seven receptions on eight targets for 172 yards. 

If Nico Collins misses another game with a calf injury, Brown will be a must-start in Week 11 vs Arizona. Once Collins returns, Brown will still make key possession catches and is also a threat downfield, and he can still be worthy of streaming consideration. 

Noah Brown FAAB Bid: 12% of your available budget

Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers (30%)

In the past two weeks, Luke Musgrave has started to show signs of getting more involved in the offensive flow for Green Bay. He had 64 receiving yards in Week 10 and caught his first TD pass in Week 9. 

Musgrave should be rostered as either a potential starter for the weeks ahead or a viable depth type as injury insurance for another regular starter.

Luke Musgrave FAAB Bid: 9% of your available budget

OVERREACTION & UNDERREACTION

Every Tuesday, we go through our favorite overreaction and underreaction because what fantasy football players don’t react rationally to every bit of news they hear and see?!

Overreaction: Keaton Mitchell is a league winner

Keaton Mitchell had another highly efficient game in Week 10, rushing three times for 34 yards and a touchdown along with a 32-yard reception.

The rookie running back now has 200 total yards on only 14 touches in his last two games.

The problem is that Gus Edwards still dominates the red zone work and Justice Hill comes in for a portion of the snaps as well.

Add in the fact that Lamar Jackson can take away rushing touchdowns and limit receptions since he’s a rushing quarterback, and you have capped upside with Mitchell.

Don’t get me wrong — what Mitchell is doing is impressive — we just need to temper our expectations. 

You can start Mitchell as an upside FLEX going forward but don’t expect a league-winner here. 

Underreaction: Trevor Lawrence has been a disappointment

To say that Trevor Lawrence has been a disappointment would be an understatement at this point. The Jaguars quarterback has been one of the biggest busts of the fantasy football season.

The third-year signal-caller is currently averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game, which ranks 24th among quarterbacks. 

Lawrence has two games in the single digits and hasn’t eclipsed 20 points in any game this season.

With waiver wire adds like Sam Howell and Joshua Dobbs exceeding expectations, there’s simply no reason to put Lawrence in your lineup right now.

In fact, there’s a viable argument to be made that Lawrence is droppable in 10 or 12-team formats with limited bench spots.

THE HINDSIGHT REPORT

We’re officially into the second half of the NFL season! Every Tuesday, The Game Day’s staff writers will use the powers of hindsight to look back on players we thought would be good for fantasy this season but aren’t, and vice versa.

It’s time to talk about Lamar Jackson.

Coming into the season, I was high on Lamar, expecting a top-3 finish in fantasy football.

I expected new offensive coordinator Todd Monken to have a major impact on this offense.

What’s wild is that I was both right and wrong at the same time.

Lamar has improved as a passer under Monken, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt with a 70% completion rate.

But the star quarterback is averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game, which ranks 10th among quarterbacks.

The problem is that the Ravens have an elite defense, so Lamar doesn’t need to do too much, which has impacted his fantasy output.

We need to adjust our expectations for Jackson going forward, as he’s more of a mid-range QB1 as opposed to an elite option. 

OK, BET 💰

Each Tuesday, Sam Wagman will take a peek at the week ahead’s betting spread and total lines on our partner DraftKings to determine which lines you should grab ahead of time.

Houston Texans -4 (-110) vs Arizona Cardinals

I’m kind of surprised here. The look-ahead line on this game was HOU -2.5 back in August when nobody knew what kind of quarterback C.J. Stroud would be. 

Meanwhile, Kyler Murray was always expected back around this time so I’m pretty sure this line took that into account. So, why has this line only moved a point and a half in the three months since?

Stroud has been incredible and is having one of the best rookie seasons out of a quarterback ever. He has thrown 15 passing touchdowns and only two interceptions, ranks second in the NFL in passing yards, and somehow has elevated Noah Brown into a WR1-caliber receiver despite Brown never showing anything remotely close.

This Cardinals team just got its second win of the season, and despite Murray looking relatively solid, we did just watch him play Arthur Smith and the Falcons. The Falcons had no weapons to pressure Murray and really didn’t have an answer for his legs, which showed no true signs of rust off his ACL reconstruction.

Contrast this to the Texans, who rank second in Pass Rush Win Rate this season as well as Run Stop Win Rate, and they could make life very hard on the Cardinals this week. Four is too small of a number to lay here and the Texans should win this game by a touchdown.

Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (-102) @ Kansas City Chiefs

I know, I know. You’re never supposed to fade Patrick Mahomes in this spot, and I wouldn’t blame you if you dismiss this play on that notion alone. But take a little journey with me through my thinking here.

The Eagles are a better put-together team than the Chiefs are right now. Outside of Mahomes and the globe-trotting Travis Kelce, who else is there to frighten the Eagles?

The Eagles can completely shut down the running game of the Chiefs, forcing them to attack solely through the air, and at that point, will Mahomes be able to take over? 

I think the Eagles will be able to ball-control this game. They have one of the top-ranked rushing offenses this season, and the Chiefs rank 32nd in Run Stop Win Rate, which doesn’t bode well and will probably force Mahomes into playing hero ball.

It’s never wise to fade Mahomes, especially at home, but Jalen Hurts has been playing inspired football despite battling a knee injury and I think he will absolutely rise to the challenge here in primetime.

BUY LOW, SELL HIGH

💵 BUY Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel returned in Week 10, catching all four of his targets for 30 yards along with 29 rushing yards, including a 23-yard touchdown. 

In games in which Deebo didn’t play injured or leave early after getting hurt, he has averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game.

That would rank ninth among wide receivers over the full season.

But because of Deebo’s injury absence, there is still a buying opportunity. I’d look to trade a receiver like DeAndre Hopkins for Samuel.

Deebo has a great schedule coming up as well, taking on the Bucs (29th), Seahawks twice (19th), Eagles (32nd), and Cardinals (17th) in the next five games.

He even gets the Commanders (31st) in the fantasy championship. 

👋 SELL Chris Olave

Chris Olave came alive in Week 10, hauling in 6-of-9 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown.

But most of that production came when Jameis Winston was forced into action due to Derek Carr (concussion/shoulder) leaving the game due to injury. 

The Saints have their bye in Week 11, so Carr should be able to return for Week 12, which would put Olave back to his volatile WR2-type production.

We would need Winston to be starting for Olave to approach his ceiling, but that doesn’t seem like it’ll happen, unfortunately.

I would try to package Olave in a trade for Deebo.