Don't Bet Against the Bills! + Week 8 Fantasy Rankings

It’s one of the best times of the year. There’s a chill in the air … the holidays are around the corner … and the sports calendar is filled with playoff baseball, the return of the NBA and another awful Giants team.

Sure feels like fall. On deck today, we’ve got a parlay you need to lock in, starts & sits and an MLB betting preview.

Before we get to the World Series, though, we need to dive into the NFL slate for the week, starting with TNF. Let’s get into it. 👇

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Up next on Thursday Night Football, we get another potentially solid viewing of the Buffalo Bills at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bills just strike me as the better team in this matchup. Not only can we expect that they'll return some of their injured defensive players from the last few weeks, but they just get a nice matchup here against a Tampa Bay passing defense that has absolutely struggled in the past few weeks.

Only six teams have allowed more passing yards per game than the Buccaneers do this season at 265 yards, so we know Josh Allen will be plenty active here. All of the Buccaneers' cornerbacks are allowing more than 0.35 fantasy points per pass route, so expect Allen and co. to target them heavily.

I expect Stefon Diggs, after a down game against the Patriots last week, to get back to his normal self and like his Over props.

On the Buccaneers' side, I do expect Mike Evans to be a big part, as the Bills rank 30th in defensive DVOA vs. WR1s this season. Will that be enough to upset the Bills? I'm just not sure. - Sam Wagman

Get deeper into the game with our Thursday Night Football predictions.

WEEK 8 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

Frank Ammirante is one of the top fantasy football rankers in the industry for the 2023 season. He placed in the top two in the FantasyPros Accuracy rankings for Weeks 4 and 5, and he has placed in the top 15 in three of the past four weeks. Here are some highlighted plays from Frank for Week 8, and you can find all of his rankings here.

• Dak Prescott had his best fantasy output of the year prior to the bye, totaling 24.9 points en route to an overall QB1 finish in Week 7. The Dallas Cowboys have an implied total of 26 points at home vs the Los Angeles Rams, putting Dak in a good spot for another strong outing.

• Rhamondre Stevenson is starting to deliver on preseason expectations, averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game in his last two, which ranks as RB17 during that stretch. We've seen Stevenson make an impact during the passing game, with 11 catches in his last two games.

• Michael Pittman Jr. deserves to be consistently ranked in the top 24 wideouts, as the Indianapolis Colts' number one option is now averaging 12 fantasy points per game (WR21). Pittman has put up at least 15 points in each of his last two games. We just saw the Saints get burned by Christian Kirk, so this could be a spike week for Pittman.

• Look out for Trey McBride, who has a route participation of 48% and 51% in his last two weeks, which is a significant increase from 25% or lower in his previous two. Zach Ertz (quad) has been placed on injured reserve, so it's McBride's time to shine.

FOUR FEATURED ITEMS FOR THE SUNDAY SLATE

1. New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: New England is coming off a big upset win over the Buffalo Bills. Last week, Miami was humbled by the Philadelphia Eagles on national TV. The Dolphins are favored by 9.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Last season, the two teams split their matchups, with Miami winning by seven points. This is too big a spread for a divisional matchup, so go with New England to cover the spread at -108.

2.  New York Jets at New York Giants: This is the NFL version of the Subway Series, although you have to take the New Jersey Transit train to get to MetLife Stadium. In what seems like a rare occurrence, the Jets are the superior team of the two. Zach Wilson has played better recently, and while the Giants are coming off two respectable outings, the “road team” will cover the -3 spread at -105.

3. Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks: The Browns shockingly allowed 38 points to the Gardner Minshew-led Colts in Week 7 but should bounce back defensively in this matchup. Seattle has scored just 61 points in its last three games. But the Seahawks have allowed 26 points in the last three games. Consider taking the Under of 39.5 points at -112.

4.  Moneyline Considerations: If you are looking to target an upset and make some cash on a moneyline play, there are a few teams to consider. The Carolina Panthers (+130 on the moneyline) are winless, and it wouldn’t be a major surprise to see them beat the Houston Texans at home. The New Orleans Saints (+102) are very capable of winning at Indianapolis. If you are feeling really gutsy, take Washington at +235 to topple the Philadelphia Eagles at home. The NFC East rivals went to overtime earlier this season and split their two 2022 meetings. – Scott Engel

WEEK 8 STARTS & SITS

Start/sit decisions don’t have to be tough! Michelle Magdziuk makes it easy for you with her industry-standard start/sits piece, “Fire & Ice”.

Start: Christian Kirk vs PIT

Kirk is an easy play this week, as he goes up against a floundering Steelers’ defense that just got pummeled by Puka Nacua and the Rams last week. Kirk averages over a 30% target share against man coverage, which the Steelers run at the tenth-highest rate this season.

Since Week 2, Kirk has been a borderline WR1 for fantasy football, so you have to start him here.

Sit: Kirk Cousins @ GB

Since the Packers are such a rush-funnel defense this season, most teams don’t pass against them. When they do, though, Jaire Alexander sits in the secondary, waiting for quarterbacks to throw the ball to him.

Cousins has been throwing the ball at an above-average rate since Justin Jefferson went down with an injury, but outside of last week’s 49ers game, he has been average at best. There are better options you can start here.

Fill out your Week 8 lineups with the full rundown of Starts & Sits. 

SLEEPERS & BUSTS

Every week on TheGameDay.com, Scott ‘The King” Engel provides his full rundown of fantasy football sleepers and busts. Scott is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Hall of Fame.

SLEEPER: Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders: The rookie tight end showed his promise in Week 6, with five receptions for 75 yards. But he then followed up with two receptions for 13 yards in Week 7. Look for Mayer to rebound in Week 8 against the Lions, who have allowed the second-most Fantasy Points Per Game to TEs.

SLEEPER: Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers: He caught his third TD pass of the season in Week 7. Doubs should also be able to get past the 90-yard mark for the first time since Week 4 against the Vikings, who rank 28^th in FFPG allowed to WRs.

BUST: Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans: A move to rookie Will Levis at QB may not be a major disadvantage, but a matchup against the underrated Atlanta defense certainly leads to an adverse outlook. The Falcons have not allowed a rushing TD this season and rank second in FFPG allowed to RBs.

BUST: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks: The Seattle veteran is always capable of making a clutch catch in any matchup, but any real-life heroics this week may not translate well enough to fantasy production. The Browns rank first in FFPG allowed to WRs, and even if Lockett’s receptions are timely, the final stat line might be disappointing.

View more Week 8 fantasy football sleepers from Scott Engel here.

FANTASY FOOTBALL MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

Each week, Sam Wagman takes you through some of his favorite fantasy football matchups to exploit. Whether it’s a stat-based take or a pure gut feeling, Sam makes it easy for you to make tough lineup calls with his Matchups to Exploit article.

WR vs CB: Josh Downs vs Alontae Taylor

We are going right back to the well this week with the slot WR that faces off against Taylor and the Saints after seeing Christian Kirk dominate against him with a touchdown and 90 receiving yards. It certainly helps that Downs just had his breakout game against the top-tier Cleveland Browns' defense last week, but even so, we can upgrade him significantly regardless of his previous performance.

As noted last week, Taylor gives up plenty of points to slot WRs. He is currently being targeted at a 28% clip, which is 13% more than either of the Saints' boundary corners, and he gives up 0.43 fantasy points per pass route (FPpPR), which ranks third among slot cornerbacks this season.

With Gardner Minshew at the helm, Downs has flourished. In games where Minshew has started, which is Weeks 3, 6, and 7, Downs has a 27%, 16%, and 29% target share, which led the team in two of those three weeks. He averaged 93 receiving yards in those three games.

RB vs DL: Isiah Pacheco vs DEN

Another week, another running back versus the Broncos, who — guess what — are still one of the worst defenses against the run in the NFL.

Let’s put aside what the Broncos were able to do against the Packers, who were trotting out a cautious Aaron Jones and the ever-inefficient A.J. Dillon (who still managed 15 carries for 61 yards) and focus on the fact that Denver is still allowing the most rushing yards per game over their last three.

This week, Pacheco gets his second start of the season against Denver, and all he did in the first game was put up his second-best fantasy week of the season, with six catches helping pad the stat line.

Get the winning fantasy advantage with more Week 8 Matchups to Exploit.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh and its opponents have combined for 42 points or fewer in five of six games. The Steelers have a conservative approach on offense, where Kenny Pickett is essentially the game manager.

Look for this matchup vs the Jaguars to come down to the wire in a low-scoring affair.

Will Levis could inject some life into this Titans offense, and Tennessee should be well prepared coming out of their bye week.

Head coach Mike Vrabel is 5-0 coming off the bye in his Titans’ career.

Move on more Week 8 parlays with Frank Ammirante.

WORLD SERIES TIME

It’s a big year for MLB teams who use their state names vs. city names. The underdog Arizona Diamondbacks, who barely snuck into the playoffs, will face the Texas Rangers, who have a payroll north of $250M. By comparison, the Dbacks’ payroll sits at ~$119M.

As you can imagine, the Rangers are heavy favorites, but we all love a good underdog story (and a potential stronger return.) Give me DBacks to hoist the World Series trophy in seven.