LOCK in These Bets: Super Bowl Edition

The Super Bowl is FINALLY right around the corner. While this is not the matchup we wanted (🥱) from an entertainment or betting perspective, we are ready for a full day of adult beverages, wings, pizza and a variety of cream cheese-based dips.

Let’s lock in your predictions before we get into ours.

BACK OFFICE BUZZ: SUPER BOWL EDITION

• SUPER BOWL PREDICTION

• THE HARDEST-HITTING QUESTION FROM VEGAS

• BET ON SUPER BOWL 58 WITH FANATICS

• SUPER BOWL INJURY ALERT

• FADE THIS STAR WR

• BUILD THIS PARLAY OF SLEEPER TD SCORERS 

SUPER BOWL PREDICTION

Chiefs 27, 49ers 24

The second Super Bowl clash between Kansas City and San Francisco should come down to a tight finish.

Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker made the game-winning kicks in Super Bowl 57 and last season’s AFC Championship Game. The boot may play the role of a difference-maker in the clutch again.

Kansas City has won its last two playoff games by seven and three points, respectively. San Francisco won both of its NFC postseason contests by three points, so you can strap in for a tight showdown between two historic franchises.

THE HARDEST-HITTING QUESTION FROM VEGAS

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SUPER BOWL BEST BET

The Chiefs are the more proven Super Bowl team as they have played in four of the last five and have a head coach/quarterback combination that is still building a legendary list of accomplishments. The duo of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes is now in the conversation with some of the greatest in NFL history, such as Tom Brady/Bill Belichick and Joe Montana/Bill Walsh.

Reid now has 25 career playoff wins, the second-most ever by an NFL head coach, and is the fourth head coach to appear in five Super Bowls. Mahomes is the first QB in NFL history to start in four Super Bowls before the age of 30 and now has 14 career playoff wins, second only to Brady and Montana, as noted by the Kansas City Star.

While Mahomes has an illustrious postseason record, the Kansas City defense has been a prime factor in their playoff success. The Chiefs led all teams in the postseason with four takeaways and have allowed 10 or fewer points in two of three postseason games.

Defense will be the key against the 49ers, who have the league's most talent-laden crew of playmakers. San Francisco ranked third in the NFL during the regular season at 28.9 points per game, and it has stayed on that course with 58 points scored in its first two playoff games.

Brock Purdy has led two comeback wins against lesser defenses in the NFC but will find the Chiefs’ unit much less forgiving. Ultimately, Super Bowl 58 will come down to which defense will get the key stop in a clutch moment, and I will lean toward Kansas City getting the job done.

Chiefs +2 (-118)

DraftKings Sportsbook • Wager: 1.5 Units

The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and 6-3-1 when not playing at Arrowhead Stadium, as noted by TeamRankings. San Francisco is 9-10 ATS as favorite and 6-7 after a win, and the 49ers did not cover the spread in their two NFC playoff games.

Lock in Kansas City to cover the spread and win its fourth Super Bowl as the NFL bet of the day. — Scott Engel

SUPER BOWL INJURY ALERT 🏥

The most notable Super Bowl injury right now involves a key piece of the Chiefs offensive line.

Joe Thuney (pectoral) was forced to miss the AFC Championship Game. This season, the guard put up an 83.4 Pass-Blocking Grade, per PFF.

But reports indicate that Thuney is unlikely to play this week. The good news for Kansas City is that Nick Allegretti has proven capable of filling in, so their ability to execute likely won’t fall too short of the norm. — Frank Ammirante

FADE THIS STAR WR

Brandon Aiyuk: Under 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

FanDuel Sportsbook • 1 Unit

Brandon Aiyuk has been so hit-or-miss this season that in 18 games played, he has both hit and missed this number nine times. This is a true 50/50 Super Bowl prop.

The chief problem (pun intended) for Aiyuk in this scenario is Chiefs CB1 L'Jarius Sneed. Sneed somehow didn't even earn a Pro Bowl nod this year, let alone an All-Pro berth, but he has played at an insanely high level this season.

Sneed had one of the higher shadow rates in the league, particularly on opposing teams' No. 1 perimeter wideouts. With Aiyuk predominantly lining up outside, I expect Sneed to make him his focus in this game. 

The Chiefs allowed just 37.4% of targets to go to WRs lining up outside, per 4for4's Connor Allen, ranking as one of the NFL’s stingiest against the X and Z. Look for Sneed to limit Aiyuk’s numbers.

Now Aiyuk can always make big plays, so there's some inherent risk. However, I expect the 49ers to make use of their other stud players, namely Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel, so they may not need Aiyuk. — Sam Wagman

BUILD THIS PARLAY OF SLEEPER TD SCORERS 

Let's have some fun with this longshot Super Bowl parlay.

The big game often involves a few trick plays or surprising production from ancillary players, so why not take a shot?

I'll kick it off with Noah Gray to find the end zone. The Chiefs' No. 2 tight end scored two touchdowns this season.

With the 49ers focused on Travis Kelce, maybe we get lucky with Gray hitting paydirt for the third time this year.

Let's conclude the dart-throw pair with Kyle Juszczyk to score a touchdown.

The 49ers fullback owns two touchdowns this season. We sometimes see the 49ers use Juszczyk as a receiver out of the backfield.

I can see a play-action fake to Christian McCaffrey inside the five with a pass to the fullback.

Plus, Juszczyk's wife Kristin just got a licensing deal with the NFL to use team logos on her clothing designs after they went viral. The vibes are high. — Frank Ammirante