March Madness Sweet 16 Round 1

No. 7 Michigan St. vs No. 3 Kansas St.

Tonight at 6:30 PM on TBS

Allow me to explain why this is the easiest decision for the first round of the Sweet 16 games. Tom Izzo, coaching in his 78th NCAA Tournament game, is seeking to secure his spot in the Elite Eight for the 11th time in his career. The Spartans possess a squad of veteran guards and excellent shooters who have only given up an average of 61.5 points in the tournament.

On the other hand, the Wildcats are under the leadership of a first-year head coach and have only two elite playmakers, Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson, who performed remarkably well against Kentucky. If Izzo can write something up to stop Nowell and Johnson while slightly increasing their shooting percentage, the Spartans will EASILY have this in the bag.

In their previous game versus Marquette, the Spartans had a lower-than-average three-point field goal percentage, hitting only two of 16 attempts, resulting in a 12.5% success rate. However, it is worth noting that this is not typical of their performance as they ranked among the top eight teams in the nation for three-point field goal percentage with a success rate of 38.74%, which was also the highest in the Big Ten. This suggests that they will likely improve their three-point shooting in tonight’s matchup.

• Moneyline: Michigan State (-125) • Kansas State (+110)

• Spread: Michigan State -2 (-110) • Kansas State +2 (-110)

• Total: Over 137.5 (-110) • Under 137.5 (-110)

No. 8 Arkansas vs No. 4 Connecticut

Tonight at 7:15 PM on CBS

This is another straightforward game in my opinion, as UConn has a clear advantage. Let’s discuss why. 👇

In their last game against No. 1 overall Kansas, the Razorbacks faced a 12-point deficit during the second half, but their 14 offensive rebounds helped them secure the win. Unfortunately, they will not get this lucky against UConn, as they boast a rebound rate of 56.8%, which is the second-highest in the country and suggests that they are a dominant force in this area.

UConn holds the fourth position in the KenPom rankings, trailing behind only Houston, Alabama, and UCLA. They are a well-rounded team that can score points while simultaneously playing exceptional defense. 

The Razorbacks' defensive capabilities are reflected in their statistics, indicating weaknesses in defending cuts and pick-and-roll plays, placing them outside the top 140 according to KenPom. On the other hand, UConn's offensive efficiency is exceptional, ranking them among the top 50 teams in both categories.

While Arkansas has been a fun team to watch, especially with coach Eric Musselman taking his shirt off after last week’s win against Kansas, they are outmatched in this game and -4 points is a reasonable line.

• Moneyline: UConn (-175) • Arkansas (+150)

• Spread: UConn -4 (-110) • Arkansas +4 (-110)

• Total: Over 139.5 (-110) • Under 139.5 (-110)

No. 9 Florida Atlantic vs No. 4 Tennessee

Tonight at 9:00 PM on TBS

Having secured an impressive 13-point victory over Duke last week, the Tennessee Volunteers are now setting their sights on reaching the Elite Eight for the first time since 2010. Their upcoming game against the Florida Atlantic Owls, who have won two close games against No. 8 Memphis and No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson to reach the Sweet 16, should not be too daunting of a challenge for the Vols.

Tennessee held Duke to its lowest score of the season and of the NCAA Tournament at only 52 points, with 14 turnovers, showcasing elite defensive prowess. While its defense is the most efficient in the nation per KenPom, allowing only 87 points per 100 possessions, generating consistent scores has been challenging for Tennessee.

Tennessee has failed to surpass 71 points in their last five games and has a record of 3-10 in games where their opponents score 60 points or more. As Tennessee is clearly the superior team, they should win this one with the under HITTING.

• Moneyline: Tennessee (-240) • Florida Atlantic (+200)

• Spread: Tennessee -5 (-110) • FAU +5 (-110)

• Total: Over 131 (-110) • Under 131 (-110)

No. 3 Gonzaga vs No. 2 UCLA

Tonight at 9:45 PM on CBS

This game obviously has the potential to be the best of the four-game slate. Unfortunately for some of us, the game starts at 9:45 PM ET. However, get ready to stay up because when these two teams meet, something incredible always seems to happen. Whether it’s an iconic moment like Jordan Farmar's late-game steal in 2006 or Jalen Suggs' buzzer-beater in 2021, these two teams always seem to deliver unforgettable moments in the tournament.

In the Round of 32, No. 2 seed UCLA narrowly escaped with a 68-63 win over No. 7 seed Northwestern, with senior guard Jaime Jaquez Jr. leading the Bruins by scoring 24 points on 58% shooting from the field. Meanwhile, No. 3 seed Gonzaga had a tough time in their 84-81 victory over No. 6 seed TCU, with senior forward Drew Timme contributing 28 points and eight rebounds.

According to KenPom, this matchup will be a battle of offense versus defense. UCLA, ranked second in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, will face Gonzaga, the first-ranked team in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In a closely contested game, expect defense to prevail and the Bruins to come away with the win.

Read more from Frank Ammirante’s UCLA vs Gonzaga Predictions here.

• Moneyline: UCLA (-125) • Gonzaga (+105)

• Spread: UCLA -1.5 (-110) • Gonzaga +1.5 (-110)

• Total: Over 145.5 (-110) • Under 145.5 (-110)