DO NOT Get Tempted By This Huge Spread

Hello from The Game Day squad! In this edition of Back Office Buzz, we’ve got the best betting tips 💰, fantasy football advice 🏈, and the latest on Shohei Ohtani ⚾️. Let’s go! ⤵️

Before we dive in, make sure you take advantage of our best offer from FanDuel!

PLAYERS YOU NEED TO TARGET ON WAIVERS 🎯

Every week, our Scott Engel dives deep into the waiver wire to scour players that you should be picking up to get ahead of the rest of your leaguemates. Let’s take a look at this week’s top adds.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (rostered in 51% of sleeper leagues)

After guiding two critical drives in a win over Seattle in Week 11, Matthew Stafford has tossed seven TD passes in his last two games, including four against the usually stout Cleveland defense on Sunday. 

You should roster a quality backup QB for the fantasy playoff push, and Stafford fits the bill ideally. He is healthy and performing well overall, with appealing matchups against Washington (Week 15) and the New York Giants (Week 17) ahead. 

Matthew Stafford Free Agent Budget Bid: 9% of your available budget

Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots (46%)

During his prime, the former Cowboys superstar was a surefire first-round fantasy draft pick. Ezekiel Elliott is past the days of being a fantasy football superstar, yet he may now be the first pick off the waiver wire instead.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson is set to miss some time with an ankle injury and will be out for Thursday’s game on the short week against Pittsburgh. Elliott had 21 touches for 92 scrimmage yards in Week 13 in relief of Stevenson and should be in for a heavy workload against the Steelers. 

While it may seem like he is older, Elliott is still 28 years old, and he can potentially post adequate totals with a good amount of work; he doesn’t have any other significant threats to his playing time on the New England roster and any starting RB who is in line for many carries is a prime waiver priority. 

Ezekiel Elliott FAAB Bid: 37% of your available budget

Noah Brown, Houston Texans (49%)

A knee injury kept Noah Brown out for two games, and he landed on the free agent list in many leagues. Now, with Tank Dell out for the season, the 6-foot-2, 215-pounder has to be claimed again. 

Brown did not catch either of his targets in his first game back from the layoff on Sunday, but he now becomes a top pickup when we recall that he totaled 325 receiving yards on 13 receptions in the two games prior to his injury. Brown has size and game-breaking ability and should now assume a major role in a potent passing game alongside Nico Collins. 

Noah Brown FAAB Bid: 65% of your available budget, or even more if your league bids very aggressively. 

Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants (11%)

I had been holding onto Hyatt for many weeks in several leagues because I believed he would eventually show himself to be the one true playmaking threat among the Giants WRs. Ultimately, I had to cut him in some yearly leagues because of roster depth needs, yet now I may chase Hyatt again and soon list him among my fantasy football sleeper picks.

Before the NFL Draft, the rookie drew scouting comparisons to former Eagles big-play man DeSean Jackson. Hyatt had his best game yet in Week 12, catching five passes for 109 yards, and he could come through with a few more spike outings the rest of the way.  

Jalin Hyatt FAAB Bid: 11% of your available budget

OVERREACTIONS & UNDERREACTIONS

Every Tuesday, we go through our favorite overreaction and underreaction because what fantasy football players don’t react rationally to every bit of news they hear and see?!

Overreaction: It’s time to worry about Jahmyr Gibbs in fantasy

Jahmyr Gibbs has combined for 24 touches for 127 yards in his last two games. During this stretch, David Montgomery has 34 touches for 126 yards.

While Montgomery is going to take away a significant number of red zone opportunities, Gibbs should still be able to make a major impact in the passing game.

In this two-game sample, the dynamic rookie back has only five catches for 13 yards, including one reception for -6 yards against the Saints.

That’s not going to last, especially for one of the best receiving backs in the NFL.

Week 14 is a great spot against the Bears, who allow the most receiving yards to running backs, and it isn’t even close. 

Chicago has given up 713 yards, which is 132 more than the Chargers, who have allowed the second-most. 

Expect Gibbs to get back on track in this matchup. 

Underreaction: Patrick Mahomes is not an elite fantasy quarterback right now

Patrick Mahomes is currently averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game, which is tied for seventh among quarterbacks this season.

It gets even worse if we look at Mahomes’ recent performances.

Since Week 8, Mahomes has averaged only 15.2 fantasy points per game, which is QB24 during that span. 

It’s time to stop viewing Mahomes as an elite option in fantasy. 

It’s clear that this Chiefs offense is not the same right now; they’re finally feeling the negative impact of their abysmal group of wideouts.

While Rashee Rice has shown promise as a rookie, it’s clear that this team misses Tyreek Hill.

It’s time to view Mahomes in the QB8-QB10 range moving forward.

THE HINDSIGHT REPORT 🔮📃

We’re now in the home stretch of the NFL season! Every Tuesday, Frank Ammirante will use the powers of hindsight to look back on players we thought would be good for fantasy this season but aren’t, and vice versa.

It’s time to give Jordan Love his flowers.

Coming into the season, I had my doubts about Love in his first year as a starting quarterback.

After all, we saw him struggle in his two starts back in 2021 against the Chiefs and Lions.

But it’s clear that I was wrong on Love and should have been more patient with the young quarterback.

It looks like the Packers have a future star on their hands.

Love currently ranks 9th in EPA per play, throwing for 14 touchdowns with only four interceptions in his last seven games.

The first-year starter is now averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game, which is the seventh-most among quarterbacks, tied with Patrick Mahomes. 

Love clearly has a chance to be a league-winner in fantasy. Not only has he averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game in his last three (QB5), but the schedule looks promising, with games against the Giants, Bucs, Panthers, Vikings, and Bears on tap.

Love looks poised to finish off the year on a high note. 

OK, BET 💰

Each Tuesday, Frank Ammirante will take a peek at the week ahead’s betting spread and total lines on our partner FanDuel to determine which lines you should grab ahead of time.

Seattle Seahawks +10.5 (-110) @ San Francisco 49ers

The Seattle Seahawks (6-6) have now lost three in a row, putting them on the outside of the playoff picture.

Seattle has a tough matchup against the division rival San Francisco 49ers (9-3), who just dominated the Philadelphia Eagles.

But this spread is too high right now with the Seahawks as 10.5-point underdogs.

In last week’s loss to the Cowboys, quarterback Geno Smith threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns against a tough Dallas defense.

This coincided with the return of right tackle Abraham Lucas. For the first time since Week 1, Seattle had their entire starting offensive line in place.

It’s clear that Lucas had a major impact as Geno had his best game of the season.

This is a different Seattle team than its record indicates right now. They’re live dogs in this one in what looks like a letdown spot for the 49ers. 

Buffalo Bills +2.5 (-110) @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Buffalo Bills (6-6) come off their bye to take on a struggling Kansas City Chiefs team (8-4) who has gone 2-3 in their last five games. Buffalo is much better than their record and could have easily beat the Eagles prior to their bye.

The Chiefs are obviously not the same team on offense right now, so we’ll back the Bills in what is essentially a must-win situation.

Let’s not forget how the Bills went into Arrowhead and emerged victorious in each of the last two seasons. 

Roll with the Bills in this spot.

BROCK PURDY, MVP CANDIDATE?

@capsoffpodcast

Is Brock the MVP? 🤔 #brockpurdy #brockpurdyfanclub #brockpurdy49ers #brockpurdymvp #sanfrancisco49ersrumors #sanfrancisco49ersnews #49ersf... See more

WINTER MEETINGS SHO-TIME

As someone who has spent many years at the Winter Meetings, I can attest to it being a ton of sitting around for absolutely nothing to happen. However, if that happens this year, I will rage.

Every night before bed, I wash my face, brush my teeth, read a few pages of a book* (*scroll TikTok) and wonder where the f*%^ Shohei Ohtani is going to sign this offseason.

Early Winter Meetings reports have him linked to the Braves, and I’ll admit, that lineup would be absolutely filthy. There also have been Blue Jays-related rumors swirling around.

I will generally be happy if he stays out of the AL East (I am an Orioles fan). Wherever Shohei lands … I need to know NOW. - Olivia Witherite

Where do you think Ohtani sign? Reply to this email to let us know.

@thehotcornershow

🐐 Where will Shohei Ohtani be playing in 2024? #thegamedaymlb #thegameday #thehotcornershow #shoheiohtani17 #ohtaniedit #shoheiohtaniedit ... See more