Do NOT Get Tempted By This Spread + Lock In This Parlay

Oh, you were asking about our weekend plans? Order pizza. Drink a few adult bevys. Throw some coin on the Ravens covering the spread. Rot on my couch. Repeat. What about you?

Let us know: Which game is most intriguing to you this weekend?

Vote and then dive into our experts’ insights and betting picks. 

Super Wild Card weekend was highlighted by upset wins by two stud first-year quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love.

The question that everyone is asking: Can these two young signal-callers keep it rolling against the top-seeded Ravens and 49ers?

That looks like a daunting task that could prove to be too difficult to overcome.

IN TODAY'S NEWSLETTER

• DIVISIONAL ROUND PREVIEW

• A LOOK AT THIS WEEK’S BETTING LINES

• DIVISIONAL ROUND PROPS

• PARLAY OF THE WEEK

• SLEEPER PICKS

DIVISIONAL ROUND PREVIEW

The Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday, Jan. 20 at 4:30 p.m. ET with the Houston Texans taking on the Baltimore Ravens.

Rookie sensation C.J. Stroud looks to continue his improbable playoff run, but the Texans are in tough against the best team in the AFC.

Baltimore ranks 2nd in Pass EPA on defense, so they have the pieces in place to slow down Stroud and company.

At 8:30 p.m. ET, we’ve got the Green Bay Packers looking to upset the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers.

This is similar to the Texans-Ravens game in that we have a stud first-year starter in Jordan Love (just like Stroud), who is trying to keep the Cinderella run going.

But like Stroud, Love is taking on one of the top defenses in the NFL here. San Francisco ranks 6th in Pass EPA, featuring stud pass-rushers like Nick Bosa who can keep Love in check.

Onto the Sunday slate, which kicks off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the Detroit Lions at 3 p.m. ET.

Both the Bucs (22nd) and Lions (25th) struggle defending the pass, ranking near the bottom of the league in EPA.

We can expect a lot of points in this one, but you have to give the edge to the Lions due to their home-field advantage and superior running game.

The main event of the Divisional Round card includes the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills going at it at 6:30 p.m. ET.

It’s the third time that Patrick Mahomes will take on Josh Allen in the playoffs, where the Chiefs have won the previous two matchups.

While the Bills are depleted on defense, their home-field advantage could be just enough to knock off Mahomes in his first career playoff start on the road.

A LOOK AT THIS WEEK’S BETTING LINES

Baltimore Ravens -9.5 (-110) vs Houston Texans at FanDuel Sportsbook

After seeing the Texans overcome expectations in the first round, some bettors may think this spread is too large. However, the Ravens have already shown that they can dominate other winning teams, and this season’s version of the team is prepared to make a deep playoff run for the first time in Lamar Jackson’s career. 

Baltimore is not going to be shocked in its first playoff game at home, as John Harbaugh and many of his veterans do not want a repeat of when they were zapped from the Divisional Round in 2019 after earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC. In their last two games against playoff teams, the Ravens beat the Dolphins by 37 points at home and the 49ers by 14 on the road. 

During the regular season, Baltimore also defeated the Rams by six points at home and Detroit by 32 points at home. The Ravens opened their 2023 season with a 25-9 win over the Texans, and while Houston has improved since that game, taking out Baltimore is a much tougher task than downing a resurgent backup QB and inconsistent defense at home. 

Houston did not beat a playoff team on the road during the regular season. Baltimore was 8-3 ATS against non-AFC North teams this season while Houston was just 5-5 ATS after a win, as noted by TeamRankings. 

San Francisco 49ers -9.5 (-112) vs Green Bay Packers at FanDuel Sportsbook

This will be another case of the better team ensuring that it won’t be the victim of an upset in its first postseason game. The 49ers are built to not fall prey to the same script that led to Dallas’ ouster in the first round of the playoffs. 

The Packers won by running the ball well and using play-action passing to attack the Dallas defense, and keep the Cowboys offense off the field. San Francisco will be primed to stop the run and make the Packers offense seem more one-dimensional and face consistently adverse passing situations. 

Getting DT Arik Armstead back after a five-game layoff will further bolster the Niners defense. If San Francisco can force the Green Bay offense off the field quickly and often, it will be a long day for the Packers’ 29th-ranked run defense during the regular season against Christian McCaffrey. 

The Pack pulled off one of the greatest playoff victories in franchise history last week, but the 49ers will be ready to avoid the same sort of game flow after thoroughly reviewing the Dallas loss. Green Bay had a 2-3 ATS record this season in games where they had a rest advantage. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 (-110) at Detroit Lions at FanDuel Sportsbook

The projection here is not for Tampa Bay to win, yet we won’t see a blowout either. The Buccaneers may have won the worst division in the NFL during the regular season, but they proved to be a legitimate playoff team with a convincing win over the Eagles, beating a skidding opponent as it should have been beaten. 

Baker Mayfield has been a tenacious performer recently and is equipped with the weaponry needed to keep up with the Detroit offense or to just keep Tampa Bay close enough to cover. He has led the Buccaneers to wins in six of the last seven games overall and has not thrown an interception in five of his last six. 

Tampa Bay is 8-1 ATS this season as an away team and 9-3 as an underdog. The Lions are just 5-4 ATS as a home favorite. 

Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-122) vs Kansas City Chiefs at FanDuel Sportsbook

This is the matchup Buffalo has waited for since being eliminated from the AFC playoffs by Kansas City in the last two postseason meetings. The current version of the Chiefs has a defense that can spur playoff wins, but the offense just won’t be able to keep pace with the Bills when it matters most. 

Buffalo averaged 29.7 points per game at home during the regular season and dropped 31 on the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs. While the Bills may not get to 30 points against the Chiefs, they should register enough to cover against an opponent that averaged 20.8 points in road games. 

The Bills beat the Chiefs by three points at Kansas City in Week 14 and can certainly expand on that winning margin at home, where their last four wins have been by six or more points. There two other potential disadvantages for the Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes has never played in a road postseason game, and the QB lacks quality receiving depth in comparison to Allen.

Kansas City is 4-3-1 ATS as a road team and 2-3-1 with a rest disadvantage. Those trends do not bode well against the Bills, who have won six consecutive games overall starting with their regular season victory over the Chiefs. - Scott Engel 

DIVISIONAL ROUND PROPS

Player and game props can be just as fun as betting sides and totals, and we’ll prove it! Sam Wagman takes you all the way through the playoffs with his round-specific props piece.

Jayden Reed (GB) Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

From looking through the player prop offerings over at FanDuel, it certainly seems like the perception is that Green Bay will get absolutely smoked by the San Francisco 49ers in this game.

That’s not to say that they won’t, but there is definitely some value in a couple of lines, and Reed’s goose egg against the Cowboys in the Wild Card round certainly gives his line some value. It was the first game all season for Reed that he hadn’t had a catch, and I expect him to bounce back nicely here.

The 49ers have struggled at times against slot receivers this season, as Deommodore Lenoir has been taken advantage of to the tune of SF allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to slot WRs this year. 

Sam LaPorta (DET) Over 16.5 Longest Reception (-105)

Most of the time, I’m going to target wide receivers for longest reception plays, but in this case, we’re getting a nice number on a player that’s hit this line in 11 of 17 games this season.

Sam LaPorta wasn’t expected to play in the opening playoff game, but he grinded hard and got back to practice in time to suit up against the Rams in the Wild Card game, scoring a touchdown on a few catches.

He definitely looked a bit limited out there after suffering the hyperextended knee and bone bruise in Week 18, but the good news is that he finished the game and should now be able to put in a mostly full week of practice leading up to the game against the Buccaneers this week.

The Buccaneers have not been the strongest defense against tight ends this season, allowing the third-most yards per game vs the position. The Lions should implement a pretty vertical offense against them, given that they’ll be safely in a dome.

One last thing of note: the Buccaneers blitz at an extremely high level. Back in the first matchup against DET this season, they blitzed Jared Goff at a 41% clip, and he threw for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns against it. 

PARLAY OF THE WEEK

Move on more Divisional Round parlays with Frank Ammirante.

We’re keeping it simple for the Parlay of the Week in the Divisional Round, focusing on two heavy home favorites in the top seeds in both the AFC and NFC.

The key here is that the Texans and Packers don’t have enough on defense to slow down the Ravens and 49ers.

Baltimore (6th in Pass EPA) and San Francisco (1st) each have the advantage on offense against Houston (20th) and Green Bay (23rd) on defense.

The Texans and Packers will each need to win shootouts to pull off the upset here. While taking the Ravens and 49ers requires each team to win by double-digits, this has been a common occurrence in their home games.

The Ravens have won 56-19, 37-31, 34-20, 37-3, and 38-6 in their last five home games, while the 49ers have won 11 of 12 home games by double-digits with Brock Purdy at quarterback.

Don’t be afraid of the large point spread – parlay these two favorites for a (+267) payout.

SLEEPER PICKS

The Game Day’s team of fantasy and betting analysts will give you their favorite Sleeper DFS picks. Check out Sleeper for all of your DFS picks wants!

Christian McCaffrey Over 92.5 73.5 Rushing Yards

Christian McCaffrey getting this boost of nearly 20 yards is a godsend, since 93 is a very high bar to clear, even for him. He’s cleared this number in 11 of 16 games this season, including seven of his last eight.

The Packers are not going to provide the strongest defense against the run, as they were the seventh-worst team in the NFL against the rush by DVOA. They also allowed the fourth-most rushing yards AND attempts.

The Packers may have been able to stymie the Cowboys offense initially last week, forcing them into a pass-heavy script, but I doubt they’ll be able to do the same against a San Francisco offense that is used to beating down on defenses with its talented unit of playmakers.

I think McCaffrey hits this total with relative ease, so you should absolute take the boost here.

Lamar Jackson Over 228.5 Pass Yards

This is another bet that I think is just too low given the opponent this week. All the way back in Week 1, the Texans held Jackson to 169 passing yards despite losing by 16 points.

I am completely passing over this because, among other things, the Ravens were in their first game of an entirely brand-new passing offense. Todd Monken hadn’t settled in yet, the new Ravens’ skill guys hadn’t really gotten their bearings, and JK Dobbins went down in the first half to his season-ending injury.

Fast forward four months till now, Jackson has more than likely locked up the NFL MVP honors, the Ravens are the fifth-best passing attack by DVOA, and the main kicker: Mark Andrews may finally make his return to the field after suffering a potentially serious knee injury on a hip drop tackle in Week 12.

The Texans were the sixth-worst defense over expected against quarterbacks this season, really struggling as the season went along, and I expect that Jackson should throw plenty against a defense that has really contained the run well in recent weeks.