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HAPPY (?) THURSDAY!

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: We’ve got a stinker on deck for Thursday Night Football. While we’ll watch two disappointing teams line up on both sides of the ball, what we can get excited about is the opportunity to win some MONEY. 🤑

The defenses here leave a lot to be desired, so we’re smashing the OVER. Let’s get your fantasy and sports betting weekend started on a good note. Keep reading for more on tonight’s matchup and the fantasy and betting advice you need to have a GREAT Sunday. 👇

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Aidan O'Connell vs Easton Stick. That's the matchup that we've been gifted for this Thursday Night Football showing. It's not perfect ... but it could be sneaky good?

Both of these teams have disappointed, especially the Chargers, who are 5-8 and just lost Justin Herbert for the season. The new offense, helmed by OC Kellen Moore, has not really worked out as the run game has disappeared and the passing game has crumbled due to injuries.

On the other side of this one, the Raiders have gone through three quarterbacks this season, fired their head coach, and have somehow managed to be even more underwhelming than people thought possible before the season.

All of this leads to a showdown that many are writing off even before it starts, but rather than choose a side here, I am going to actually flip and take the OVER 34 in this game. I feel like both teams have very, very beatable defenses, but the skill position players are still very much able-bodied here.

Neither the Chargers nor the Raiders have been able to pressure the quarterback very much this season, both ranking in the bottom half of the league in Pressure Rate this season, per Pro Football Reference. This will give both quarterbacks time to get the ball out to their skill position players, with fewer chances of plays going askew.

Get deeper into the game with our Thursday Night Football predictions. 

WEEK 15 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

Frank Ammirante is a top-4 fantasy football ranker in the industry for the 2023 season. He placed in the Top 2 in the FantasyPros Accuracy rankings for Weeks 4 and 5, and he has finished in the Top 25 in seven of the past 10 weeks. Keep reading for some highlighted plays from Frank for Week 15; you can find all of his rankings here. 

QB Rankings Tips

• Matthew Stafford has averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game in his last three, which is tied for fourth-most among quarterbacks during that stretch. This is despite facing the Browns (4th) and Ravens, two of the toughest defenses vs quarterbacks. The Commanders (31st) are up next.

RB Rankings Tips

• Breece Hall came alive in Week 14, finishing as RB2 overall, thanks to a number of check-downs from Zach Wilson. Expect to see more of the same against the Dolphins, with the Jets likely playing from behind. Hall is back within the circle of trust going forward.

WR Rankings Tips

• It's wheels up for Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua against the Commanders, who rank 31st against wide receivers this season. Expect the Rams to pour on the points in what should be a blowout win in this favorable spot.

TE Rankings Tips

• I'm ranking T.J. Hockenson as TE1 because there's a good chance that Justin Jefferson will be out for this game, which sets up nicely for Hock because the Bengals rank 31st vs tight ends this season.

Flex Rankings Tips

• D'Onta Foreman is the best bet in the Bears' backfield, as the veteran handled 42% of the rush attempts in his return last week. However, the committee approach certainly caps Foreman's upside.

FOUR FEATURED ITEMS FOR THE SUNDAY SLATE

• You should definitely take the Over of 50.5 (-110) on FanDuel Sportsbook for the Dallas-Buffalo matchup. Dallas has not scored fewer than 33 points in its last five games, and Buffalo has totaled 88 points in its last three games. 

• I am locking in the Ravens at -3 (-112) over the Jaguars. Baltimore looks like the favorites in the AFC right now, and Jacksonville is coming off two straight losses with a hobbled QB. The Ravens have shown they can handily dispatch other good teams, as they did to the Lions and the Bengals twice. 

• Call it a gut feeling, but I am going to be a bit bold and go with the Steelers on the Moneyline at +110 to beat the Colts on the road. I think Mike Tomlin will have his team ready to avoid another embarrassing loss, and I don’t trust the often-erratic Gardner Minshew to win a key game in the AFC playoff race. 

• Miami over the New York Jets at -9.5 is just too large of a spread after how much better the Jets looked last week, plus Miami struggled on Monday night. The Dolphins will still win, but the Jets will come out to battle hard and will cover the spread after losing the first meeting this season by 21 points. 

WEEK 15 STARTS & SITS

Start/sit decisions don’t have to be tough! Michelle Magdziuk makes it easy for you with “Fire & Ice”, her industry-standard start/sits piece.

Start: Puka Nacua, LAR vs Commanders

Puka Nacua had a bit of a slow stretch in the middle of the season, but he has roared back in his last month of games with three performances of 14 PPR points or better. Now he draws legitimately the best matchup on the slate, given that the Commanders are probably the worst team in the NFL this season against perimeter receivers.

Sit: Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs Jets

This is a relatively simple fact: Don’t start your signal-callers against the Jets in fantasy. Besides the fact that Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed man the backend very well, discouraging throws against them, the Jets have been extremely weak against the run, surrendering over 130 rushing yards per game this season.

Fill out your Week 15 lineups with the full rundown of starts and sits. 

SLEEPERS & BUSTS

Every week on TheGameDay.com, Scott ‘The King” Engel provides his full rundown of fantasy football sleepers and busts. Scott is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Hall of Fame.

😴 SLEEPER: Sam Howell, Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Rams

Sam Howell is a suitable replacement for any injured starter because he has the promise to post quality fantasy totals because of the sheer volume of attempts. The second-year QB leads the NFL in passing attempts and is fifth in passing yards. 

Washington has the worst pass defense in the league, further forcing Howell to throw the ball frequently. The Rams rank 26th in passing yards allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks.

😴 SLEEPER: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles

Seattle can certainly move the ball via the passing game in a matchup that points to their WRs, posting good totals. The Philadelphia pass defense is an issue that cannot be fixed and will be vulnerable to all three of the Seahawks’ top pass-catchers. 

DK Metcalf will naturally command a lot of defensive attention, and Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba can benefit against an Eagles defense that allows the most FFPG to WRs. The Seattle rookie is becoming a key target on critical passing downs and should be streamed in Week 15. 

💥 BUST: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns

You may find it difficult to sit Justin Fields because of his consistent rushing upside, but in a tight lineup call between him and another respectable option, you should consider benching Fields. The Browns are fifth-best in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to QBs, and the Bears have the second-worst pass-blocking grade on PFF for Week 15.  

The Cleveland defense can aim to limit Fields as a runner, and he won’t be able to post the dual-threat numbers needed to help your fantasy team win its opening playoff game. 

💥 BUST: Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens

Travis Etienne can often be a TD-dependent fantasy option, as he has nine rushing TDs and two in his past two games. However, he has not finished with 80 scrimmage yards in four of his past five games. 

The Ravens have allowed only three rushing TDs this season, which is second-best in the NFL, and Jacksonville ranks 27th in run-blocking grade on PFF for Week 15. Lower your expectations for Etienne as a fantasy starter in Week 15.  

View more Week 15 fantasy football sleepers from Scott Engel here. 

FANTASY FOOTBALL MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

Each week, Sam Wagman takes you through some of his favorite fantasy football matchups to exploit. Whether it’s a stat-based take or a pure gut feeling, Sam makes it easy for you to make tough lineup calls with his Matchups to Exploit article.

WR/CB: Rams’ WRs vs Commanders’ CBs

This is a full position group that deserves to be upgraded here. Matthew Stafford has already been cooking in tough matchups against both the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens in the last two weeks, but now the crafty veteran draws a matchup against the worst secondary in football.

The Commanders’ secondary has allowed the second-most (and most over expected) fantasy points to receivers throughout this season, and they especially have gotten killed against perimeter receivers, where Kendall Fuller and Emmanuel Forbes have really struggled. I’m looking at a massive upgrade for Puka Nacua and a sizable upgrade as well for Cooper Kupp.

WR/CB: Romeo Doubs, GB vs Carlton Davis, TB

It is another week that Carlton Davis lands on my Matchups to Exploit list! Davis is still one of the worst-performing CBs in the NFL this season despite his very solid pick of Desmond Ridder last week.

Davis is giving up 0.51 Fantasy Points per Pass Route, which ranks second-worst in the league among starting cornerbacks. Doubs has had a quiet few weeks but is still one of the more dangerous red zone threats, given how often Jordan Love looks to him inside the 20-yard line.

Get the winning fantasy advantage with more Week 15 Matchups To Exploit.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK

The Week 15 Parlay of the Week starts off with Under 39.5 points between the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals.

We've seen Minnesota play in two consecutive low-scoring games. The Vikings just knocked off the Raiders 3-0 and lost to the Bears 12-10 in Week 12.

This defense has been much improved under Brian Flores, and we could see this unit cause problems for Jake Browning. He has performed well as the backup, but this feels like a spot for a letdown.

That's not to mention that Minnesota's offense is questionable right now with Nick Mullens taking over as starting quarterback.

In a battle of backup quarterbacks, we'll roll with a low-scoring game.

I'll finish off this parlay by taking the Denver Broncos to cover +5 on the road against the Detroit Lions.

The Broncos have gone 6-2 in their last eight games, with their two losses coming by 11 and five points.

The Lions have lost two of their last three games. Prior to that, they needed a fourth-quarter comeback to knock off the Chicago Bears at home.

In other words, these are two teams trending in opposite directions. I'll take a shot on Russell Wilson and the Broncos to keep this one close.

Move on more Week 15 parlays with Frank Ammirante.