Open This & Parlay These Two 'Dogs 🤑

PLUS: This RB has the chance to turn it around in Week 17

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IN TODAY'S BACK OFFICE BUZZ

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Trevor Siemian vs Joe Flacco. That's what we get for the final Thursday Night Football matchup of the 2023 season. In some way, it's truly a microcosm of what we've seen this entire year, where quarterback after quarterback has either gone down with an injury or gotten benched.

This all just goes to show that the NFL isn't predictable. Every year, we go into the season with fresh eyes, hopeful that injuries won't rear their heads and that every player will play up to expectations. It never quite goes that smoothly, though, and these two teams are perfect examples of both sides of that coin.

On the one hand, you have the Cleveland Browns, who at the beginning of the season, looked positively lost without Deshaun Watson playing to the standards of his contract. Then Watson went down, and after bringing in Flacco off the street, the team started playing tough football and punching teams in the mouth with strong defense and Flacco's willingness to push the ball down the field.

On the other side sit the New York Jets, who lost incoming franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the season after only getting four total snaps in. Immediately following this loss, they tailspinned out, bogged down by the subpar quarterback play of Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Siemian.

The one thing that these two teams have in common besides the fact that they're both rocking backup quarterbacks? Strong defenses, which should be the theme of this football game. 

The Browns have consistently been one of the strong defenses all season long, and despite Flacco having five interceptions in his past two games, that defense has led them to a 10-win record so far. The Jets haven't been quite as lucky with having a competent offense to get points on the board, but their defense — especially the secondary — has been just as good, and I expect that defense to be on full display in this game. 

Given what we know here, this could be an ugly game, and we are way overdue for a classic Thursday night stinker. Hold your nose, take the under of 35.5, and run for it. -Sam Wagman

Get deeper into the game with our Thursday Night Football predictions. 

WEEK 17 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

Frank Ammirante is a top-6 fantasy football ranker in the industry for the 2023 season. He placed in the Top 2 in the FantasyPros Accuracy rankings for Weeks 4 and 5, and he has finished in the Top 25 in seven of the past 12 weeks. Keep reading for some highlighted plays from Frank for Week 17; you can find all of his rankings here. 

Quarterbacks

  • Brock Purdy is coming off a dud vs the Ravens, but don't let that deter you from starting him against the Commanders. Purdy is a top-3 option this week, as the 49ers have a 31-point implied total vs Washington, who are tied for 31st in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks.

Running Backs

  • James Conner has quietly performed like an elite RB1 lately, averaging 19.5 fantasy points per game since Week 13, which ranks as RB3 during that stretch. The Eagles rank 21st in fantasy production allowed to running backs in the last four weeks.

Wide Receivers

  • DeAndre Hopkins could be headed for a spike week against a Texans defense that just got burned all game in a record-setting day for Amari Cooper. 

Tight Ends

  • Dallas Goedert caught 7-of-9 targets for 71 yards against the Giants. The dynamic tight end has now been targeted 18 times in his last two games. A matchup with the Cardinals awaits, which is good news because they just gave up 107 yards to Cole Kmet.

FLEX

  • It's a revenge game for DJ Chark against his former team, the Jaguars. Chark is coming off a huge performance vs the Packers, where he caught 6-of-8 targets for 98 yards and two touchdowns.

FIVE  FEATURED ITEMS FOR THE SUNDAY SLATE

  • We’ve got a shootout on tap between two NFC contenders in the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions. The Cowboys have been dominant at home, winning 13 in a row at AT&T Stadium, nine of which have been by double-digits. Bet on the Cowboys -6, even against a tough opponent in the Lions.

  • This looks like a get-right spot for the Kansas City Chiefs, who are coming off one of their worst losses of the Patrick Mahomes era. The Cincinnati Bengals just got picked apart by Mason Rudolph. The Cincinnati defense is in trouble against Mahomes, who should have one of his best games of the year. Kansas City’s last two wins have been by 10 and 14 points, and the Bengals are weakened by key offensive injuries, so consider taking Kansas City to squirm out of its recent doldrums and cover the spread of -7.

  • It’s a clash of AFC titans as the Miami Dolphins visit the Baltimore Ravens. Lock in the Over of 47. Both teams are riding high following wins to legit contenders in the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, respectively. The Ravens have scored 30-plus points in seven of their last nine games, and Miami has scored 27-plus in four of its last five. When these two met last season, the Dolphins won 42-38 in what was one of the best games of the year.

  • Green Bay and Minnesota need to win out to keep postseason hopes alive, and the loser of the Sunday Night matchup will be extinguished from the NFC field. Both defenses have faltered in recent weeks, and I believe that this game will come down to which side has the better QB. The Vikings have dealt with erratic play since starter Kirk Cousins went down, while Jordan Love has been steady and makes the Packers a good play on the moneyline at +105. 

  • The Philadelphia Eagles should be able to get back on track with a blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals, who have lost by 10 or more points in eight of their last 12 games. Former Eagles’ defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon will be making his return to Philadelphia, which adds some intrigue to this matchup. Take the Eagles -10.5. – Frank Ammirante and Scott Engel

WEEK 17 STARTS & SITS

Start/sit decisions don’t have to be tough! Michelle Magdziuk makes it easy for you with “Fire & Ice”, her industry-standard start/sits piece.

START: Nico Collins, HOU vs Titans

Nico Collins has missed a couple of weeks with his calf injury, but provided that C.J. Stroud is finally able to clear concussion protocol this week, Collins is a start-and-forget play this weekend.

Collins has been terrific against man coverage, and despite the Titans running an average amount of man and zone this year, Collins should feast when the Titans send press man, as he has a 32% target share against the coverage.

The Titans have struggled in man coverage all season, allowing 9.1 yards per coverage target and a nearly 20% explosive play rate, both of which are bottom-five numbers.

SIT: Amari Cooper, CLE vs Jets

Amari Cooper has historically been much better against man coverage than against zone coverage, which is why it was very surprising to see him explode for 265 yards last week against the Texans, who run a zone-heavy scheme. However, the Texans have just been bad against receivers, so in retrospect, he was a smart play.

I don’t feel the same this week, with the Jets coming to town and their defense having shut down nearly every wide receiver they’ve faced. Cooper will get a very tough matchup this week, where he will see mostly Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, both of whom are no joke.

I have a feeling we see a lot of David Njoku in this matchup rather than Cooper.

Fill out your Week 17 lineups with the full rundown of starts and sits. 

SLEEPERS & BUSTS

Every week on TheGameDay.com, Scott ‘The King” Engel provides his full rundown of fantasy football sleepers and busts. Scott is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Hall of Fame.

😴 SLEEPER: Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams @ New York Giants

Some experienced fantasy players might be hesitant to start Demarcus Robinson in a fantasy championship game, and that is understandable, knowing his career arc. The former Chief was not much of a fantasy contributor for most of his first six seasons in the NFL.  

Matthew Stafford, however, has started to incorporate Robinson more into the Rams’ passing recently, and the 29-year-old WR has caught TD passes in four consecutive games. He is also coming off his best game of the season in Week 16, with six receptions for 82 yards. 

Fantasy leaguers who need a Week 17 lineup streamer and have limited options should consider Robinson. He has the fifth-best WR/CB matchup grade of any WR vs an opposing CB group for this week on Pro Football Focus, and the Giants rank 27th in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to WRs. 

😴 SLEEPER: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks

Najee Harris has continued to be a source of fantasy disappointment in his third season, but he is still good for some TD output. The Pittsburgh RB has five TD runs this year, which is two short of the career marks he has set in the past two seasons.  

Seattle has allowed 15 rushing TDs to RBs, which is second-most in the NFL. The Steelers will battle hard in a game that has significant playoff implications for both teams, and I will also note that Harris rushed for a respectable 78 yards last week against Cincinnati. 

💥 BUST: Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets

The Browns WR is coming off a career game that elevated many fantasy teams into their league finals. However, we cannot automatically keep Amari Cooper in lineups based on last week as this is not the real NFL in which a guy doesn’t lose his job after playing so well.  

New York will be ready to limit Cooper after his huge game and force the other Browns playmakers to beat them. The Jets rank first in FFPG allowed to WRs, and Cooper has a WR/CB matchup grade of 32.8 for Week 16 on PFF against the Jets secondary, which qualifies as “below average.”

Cooper may not be completely shut out, but don’t expect a second consecutive upside performance. 

FANTASY FOOTBALL MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

Each week, Sam Wagman takes you through some of his favorite fantasy football matchups to exploit. Whether it’s a stat-based take or a pure gut feeling, Sam makes it easy for you to make tough lineup calls with his Matchups to Exploit article.

WR/CB: 49ers WRs vs Commanders CBs

This isn’t exactly groundbreaking news here: Start your WRs against the league’s worst pass defense in the Commanders. This week, the beleaguered secondary gets a pissed-off San Francisco group that was manhandled by the Baltimore defense last week.

This group of CBs, especially Jartavius Martin and Benjamin St. Juste, has struggled greatly against the perimeter receivers, which should be a massive boost for Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel in this game when they line up outside.

WR/CB: Jayden Reed, GB vs Josh Metellus, MIN

If Jayden Reed gets back on the field this week, this matchup is a slam dunk for him. He gets to go against one of the weaker nickel corners this season, with Josh Metellus allowing nearly 0.4 fantasy points per pass route this season.

Reed has been terrific when active this year, performing as one of the best rookie WRs for fantasy this season. If you have him and are in a position where you need to fire him up, you can feel good about it this week as long as he’s healthy to go.

Get the winning fantasy advantage with more Week 17 Matchups To Exploit.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK

Move on more Week 17 parlays with Frank Ammirante.

The Week 17 Parlay of the Week includes two underdogs that have a great chance at winning outright.

We'll start with the Carolina Panthers (2-13) to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7).

Carolina has been much better under interim coach Chris Tabor, beating the Atlanta Falcons and almost coming from behind in a three-point loss to the Green Bay Packers.

Bryce Young had his best game as a pro last week and could build on that performance vs a struggling Jaguars defense that just got picked apart by Baker Mayfield.

On the other hand, the Jags have been reeling right now, losing four in a row. There's also a chance that C.J. Beathard will be forced into action for the banged-up Trevor Lawrence.

Take a shot on the Panthers, who are slowly starting to trend upward.

I'll finish it off with the Los Angeles Chargers (5-10) to avoid the season sweep against the division-rival Denver Broncos (7-8).

The Chargers nearly pulled off the upset over the Buffalo Bills in interim head coach Giff Smith's debut.

Los Angeles now takes on a Denver team that is benching Russell Wilson for Jarrett Stidham for financial, not performance, reasons.

Don't underestimate the impact that this move could have on a locker room. There's a reasonable chance that we don't see the Broncos' best effort for this game.

HISTORICALLY UGLY

The Pistons are more than just bad. They’re historically abysmal. Detroit is 2-28 heading into tonight’s matchup against the Celtics, and even though Boston is without Jalen Brown, the spread is still Celtics -17.5.

Pistons ML hasn’t cashed since October 28. Hate to say it, but are they due?!

LOL, who are we kidding? Don’t waste your coin.

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