Read This 🏈 Newsletter Before Eating Turkey

We’re one day away from what is a sneaky pick for the best holiday of the year. Food, wine, family and football. What more could you ask for?

So, read through this email, set your lineups, place your bets, and sit back.

Come tomorrow, enjoy the parade, eat way too much stuffing (or is it dressing?), and then plop in front of the TV for a full day of football.

Best of all, no one will know if that perspiration on your brow is from the meat sweats or sweating out your 10-leg parlay. 

Before we dive into it, let’s make sure you have the best sportsbook offers available. Take advantage of The Game Day’s exclusive offer from FanDuel then keep scrolling for top bets to place!

THANKSGIVING PREVIEW 🦃🏈

Lions vs Packers

This time, things feel ... different. Shouldn't they? The Lions are 8-2 — second in the NFC and in prime position for a playoff run — while the Packers are 4-6, third in their own division, and floundering.

The Lions are thriving and clearly have the better team in this matchup. They're at home, where Jared Goff has been a machine (except last week) for the last year-plus, and now they have a dangerous running back tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to add to Amon-Ra St. Brown's excellence.

While the Lions have faltered at times in defending the pass, I'm not sure that the Packers have enough firepower to beat them in this area, and whether they'll be able to move the ball on the ground without Aaron Jones, due to injury, remains a mystery.

Commanders vs Cowboys

The Commanders and Cowboys are like the NFC East's version of the Lions and Packers this year. The only difference is that we don't actually know if the Commanders are a lock to lose out here.

Washington has won two of the three matchups between these two teams on Thanksgiving Day dating back to 2006, and sometimes the Cowboys just don't actually keep it together. 

We know the Cowboys can be defeated, but it does start with forcing them to be on the defensive, getting out to an early lead, and making them play catch-up.

For some reason, I just don't think there's a ton of offense to be had in this game. The Commanders are dysfunctional, and the Cowboys sometimes play down to lesser teams.

49ers vs Seahawks

The 49ers match up well against the Seahawks, who have been one of the league's worst rushing defenses in recent weeks, allowing nearly 150 rush yards per game over their last three. Enter Christian McCaffrey, who I obviously don't need to elaborate on that much.

I think the Seahawks have a chance to make this a close game. The 49ers have the talent advantage, but both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have had success against the 49ers over their careers and Metcalf especially ripped them apart in the playoff game last season.

I expect this game to be a back-and-forth slugfest, and while I can definitely see the Seahawks covering the 6.5 number, give me the Over 43.5 as my favorite pick for this game.

RANKINGS INSIGHTS

Frank Ammirante is a top-10 fantasy football ranker in the industry for the 2023 season. He placed in the Top 2 in the FantasyPros Accuracy rankings for Weeks 4 and 5, and he has finished in the Top 25 in six of the past six weeks. Here are some highlighted plays from Frank for Week 12, and you can find all of his rankings here. 

Quarterback

• Tua Tagovailoa takes on an elite Jets defense in a game where the Dolphins can sleepwalk to a win because Tim Boyle is the opposing quarterback. It's also a Friday game, so it could get ugly, like a Thursday nighter, making Tua one of my fantasy busts for Week 12.

Running Back

• Rachaad White has four top-13 fantasy finishes in his last five games. This is a good matchup against the Colts in an indoor environment. Indianapolis likes to play at a fast pace, which could force Tampa to do the same. Check out where White should be picked in keeper leagues via our fantasy football dynasty rankings.

Wide Receiver

• Michael Pittman Jr. has a terrific matchup against a pass-funnel Bucs defense that continues to hemorrhage fantasy production to wideouts. The latest culprit is Brandon Aiyuk, who went off for 156 yards with a touchdown against them in Week 11.

Tight End

• Isaiah Likely settles in at TE10 as he tries to replace the injured Mark Andrews. This is a good matchup vs the Chargers, who rank 30th vs tight ends this season.

Flex

• Odell Beckham Jr. has come alive in the last three weeks, finishing as WR10, WR31, and WR18 during that span. This is a great matchup vs the Chargers, who rank 31st against wideouts.

START/SIT WEEK 12

Start/sit decisions don’t have to be tough! Michelle Magdziuk makes it easy for you with “Fire & Ice”, her industry-standard start/sits piece.

Start: Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ CIN)

Jaylen Warren has finished as a top-8 fantasy RB in each of the last two weeks, and I expect it to happen for a third straight week. The Bengals are allowing the fifth-most yards per carry to running backs this season. 

Since Week 9, Warren has led the NFL with 13 carries of 10+ yards (no other player has 10+ such carries). The Bengals have allowed 40 carries of 10+ yards in 2023 (fourth most in the NFL).

Sit: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (@ NYJ) 

Tua Tagovailoa is averaging just 15.2 fantasy points per game in away games in 2022. The Jets have allowed just one quarterback to score more than 13 fantasy points at home this season: Jalen Hurts in Week 6, who had 3 INTs in the game but 47 yards and a TD on the ground. 

No one is more reliant on their WRs than Tagovailoa, and the Jets have the best secondary in the league against WRs and the best chance among any defense to shut down Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. 

FOUR FEATURED ITEMS FOR THE SUNDAY SLATE

Jacksonville @ Houston: The Texans have dominated this AFC South rivalry in recent years, winning 10 of the last 11 matchups. Houston is even better positioned to prevail this time behind rookie standout C.J. Stroud. Houston beat Jacksonville often when they were bad, and now this is the best version of the team since at least 2019. I’d take the Texans on the moneyline at +102 on FanDuel, but this is a close one. Scroll down for devil’s advocate in our Parlay of the Week. 😈

Baltimore @ Los Angeles Chargers: The Ravens look like the best team in the AFC, and once again, the Chargers are proving to be overrated and overhyped. Baltimore has won five of its past six games, reaching 30 points four times during that span. The Ravens are a lock at -3.5 (-105), and you can also parlay that pick with the Over of 47 as Baltimore can get to 31 to 34 points on its own.

Cleveland @ Denver: This is an interesting matchup, as Cleveland overcame Pittsburgh last week while starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and the resurgent Broncos have won four straight games. The Denver defense has forced 11 turnovers over its last four games and Russell Wilson has pulled out two consecutive late wins, so Denver is the definite pick here at -2.5 (-110).   

Buffalo @ Philadelphia: In the preseason, this looked like a potential Super Bowl preview, but the Eagles just finished off a more likely title game matchup on the winning side against Kansas City. Meanwhile, Buffalo looked sharper in a blowout win over the Jets, but the Eagles have already beaten the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Chiefs and will be ready to handle the inconsistent Bills at home. Go all in on Philadelphia at -3.5 (+100). 

SLEEPERS AND BUSTS

Every week on TheGameDay.com, Scott ‘The King” Engel provides his full rundown of fantasy football sleepers and busts. Scott is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Hall of Fame.

😴 SLEEPER: Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens

The undrafted rookie is averaging 10.3 yards per carry and is a threat to score from anywhere on the field at any time. The Chargers rank 28th in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to RBs over the past four weeks. In their most recent offensive line rankings, Pro Football Focus featured the Ravens unit as the best in the AFC and No. 2 overall. Gus Edwards is the fantasy darling right now, but Keaton Mitchell is the upside play in a good Week 12 spot. 

😴 SLEEPER: Demario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots

Demario Douglas has not delivered a breakout game yet this season, but this can be the week for the rookie to deliver his best performance yet in an exploitable matchup vs the Giants. He has 16 receptions on 23 targets in his last three games. The Giants have allowed the third-most Fantasy Points Per Game over the past four weeks, and Douglas is the only New England WR to consider starting in any matchup. 

💥 BUST: Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans

The former Bill is coming off two consecutive 100-yard games and looking like a must-start fantasy player. However, the Jaguars present a tough matchup as they rank third in rushing yards allowed to running backs. In a week where there are no teams on bye, you might be faced with a tough lineup decision involving Devin Singletary and should lean toward benching him. 

💥 BUST: Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders

Sam Howell is the fantasy QB4 overall and ranks seventh in points per game among regular starters at the position. However, Dallas ranks second in the NFC with 33 sacks and Washington has allowed 51 sacks, second-most in the NFL. Howell may not get enough time to throw effectively and consistently this week, and the Cowboys can be relentless even when opponents attempt to play catch-up against them. 

MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

Each week, Sam Wagman takes you through some of his favorite fantasy football matchups to exploit. Whether it’s a stat-based take or a pure gut feeling, Sam makes it easy for you to make tough lineup calls with his Matchups to Exploit article.

WR/CB: Adam Thielen (CAR) vs Titans CBs

Adam Thielen should have a nice bounceback game here against a Titans secondary that has been flat in recent weeks. He projects to face off against Roger McCreary, who has not fared that well this year and just played a decent amount of snaps against Calvin Ridley last week, giving up a touchdown and a number of yards.

Thielen hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 6 but could definitely get into the end zone here.

WR/CB: Colts WRs vs Buccaneers CBs

Here is another advantageous matchup at the wide receiver position as the Buccaneers have been a sieve against pass-catchers lately. Both Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean left Week 11 early with some injuries, and they may or may not play in this one.

Even if they do suit up, though, Tampa has not defended the position well. All three of Tampa Bay’s cornerbacks are giving up at least 0.4 fantasy points per pass route, which is the worst collective rating of all 32 NFL teams right now.

You’re best off automatically starting your Colts’ WRs — namely Josh Downs and Michael Pittman — and even Alec Pierce could have appeal in deep leagues.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK 

The Week 12 Parlay of the Week features two moneylines and an Under.

I’ll start with the Jaguars (7-3) to avoid the sweep against the division rival Texans (6-4). Houston is currently on a three-game winning streak, but they could have easily lost each of those games, which had a combined margin of victory of 10 points.

Jacksonville is the better team and they seem to have figured it out on offense last week, where Trevor Lawrence threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns.

For the sake of the parlay, we’re going Jags moneyline, but this is the one leg we’ll be sweating the most. (See the Sunday Slate section above.)

The Falcons love to run the ball, which can prolong drives and chew time off the clock, helping out with the Under. In fact, Atlanta games have gone Under this number in six of 10 games this season.

During the Falcons' current three-game losing streak, they've allowed 25, 31, and 28 points. Expect head coach Arthur Smith to emphasize the run even more because this team can't afford to get into shootouts with Desmond Ridder at the helm.

I'll finish it off with the Rams (4-6) to keep their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Cardinals (2-9).

While Arizona has played competitively since Kyler Murray came back, this team still finds a way to lose games — just look at last week vs the Texans, where they failed to capitalize on C.J. Stroud's turnovers.

This is a bet on coach Sean McVay crafting a strong game plan to keep his team in playoff contention with a win over a division rival that is just playing out the year.