🤯 Recap WILD NFL Free Agency Kickoff

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Before college basketball earns the spotlight for the next three weeks, the NFL hogged the news cycle this week (surprise, surprise) with the kickoff of its annual free-agency period.

This year, we had even more activity than usual for the first few days, known as the legal tampering period. 

 ​🎯 As usual, New York Jets CB Sauce Gardner covers it well:

So many big names moved that it looked like Madden’s Franchise mode being played on Easy mode.

We ramp up into full March Madness mode next week. Bookmark our March Madness Betting Guide to get ahead on your homework.

For now, we tackle two big NFL signings and a handful of best bets for the week.

BACK OFFICE BUZZ: THE RUNDOWN 3/14/24

• NFL Free Agency: How to Bet Saquon Barkley, Kirk Cousins Signings

• 3 MLB Props to Lock in NOW Before Markets Shift

• Preview for Golf’s 5th Major

• 3 Best Driver Picks to Win NASCAR Food City 500

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NFL FREE AGENCY: ON SAQUON, KIRK

Saquon Barkley ➡️ Eagles: 3 Years, $37.5M

Saquon Barkley was the crown jewel of this running back free-agency class, and the market was going to be solid given that the 2024 NFL Draft RB class doesn’t excite many analysts.

The Eagles haven’t given ridiculous money to a running back since the DeMarco Murray disaster in 2015. People were shocked when it was announced that Barkley was signing with a division rival.

Barkley represents the complete back that the Eagles haven’t had since the years of LeSean McCoy. Don’t be surprised if we see him push for a career year in 2024. 

I’m betting on him going OVER 1,125.5 rushing yards this season.

Kirk Cousins ➡️ Falcons: 4 Years, $180M

Plenty of people speculated that, while he was opening up his options, Kirk Cousins would ultimately return to the Vikings on a team-friendly deal. After all, he has earned nearly $200M in his career already and wanted to continue to play with All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson.

That wouldn’t end up being the case: The veteran signed a multi-year deal with Atlanta and now figures to be the face of their organization going forward. Coming off a full Achilles tendon tear eight games into last season, Cousins will be an interesting case study in giving a boatload of money to an injured cornerstone player.

New Falcons HC Raheem Morris spoke at length about being right there in terms of contending. Cousins will be tasked with getting Atlanta to the next level. With talents like Drake London, Kyle Pitts, RB Bijan Robinson, and new WR Darnell Mooney, I expect Cousins to pass a ton this season.

MLB PROPS TO BET BEFORE OPENING DAY

CJ Abrams: MLB Stolen Base Leader (+800) • bet365 Sportsbook

CJ Abrams stole 47 bases in 614 plate appearances last season. If we dive deeper, we see the Nationals shortstop swiped 38 of those bags from July 1 until the end of the season. 

If Abrams can maintain that second-half pace, we could see 60+ stolen bases, putting him in contention to lead MLB in steals, especially with Ronald Acuña Jr. banged up and Esteury Ruiz’s issues at the plate.

The dynamic shortstop is projected to hit leadoff for the Nationals this season, which should give him plenty of opportunities for stolen bases.

Corbin Burnes: MLB Strikeouts Leader (+1800) • bet365 Sportsbook

Corbin Burnes is the type of high-volume pitcher that you target to lead MLB in strikeouts. Steamer projects the Orioles’ ace to approach 200 innings this year. 

We could see even more innings from Burnes, considering that it’s a contract year and the Orioles are contending for a World Series.

Let’s not forget that Burnes put up 243 strikeouts in 2022 and 234 in 2021. While 2023 was a down year, Burnes still out up 127 Stuff+, which, per Fangraphs, led all pitchers.

Seattle Mariners: Win World Series (+2000) • DraftKings Sportsbook

If you’re looking for a long shot to win the World Series, take a shot on the Mariners. 

The starting rotation is absolutely stacked with Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller. You’d be hard-pressed to find a better group from one through five.

The lineup has some question marks, but Julio Rodriguez is a superstar and Jorge Polanco was a savvy veteran addition. Perhaps we could see some improvement from this group, especially if Ty France can turn his visit to the Driveline Baseball mechanics workshop into more power.

The bullpen has several electric arms, led by Andres Muñoz, Matt Brash (although he’s currently injured), and others.

The Mariners check all the boxes for a dark-horse World Series contender.

PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP: PGA’S 5TH MAJOR

Last week, Scottie Scheffler — sporting a beard and a brand-new mallet putter — took down his first title in nearly a full year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scheffler dominated with a win by five strokes over Wyndham Clark and plenty of other heavyweights.

This week, the players return to the scene of Scottie’s most recent win before last week: TPC Sawgrass, the home of The PLAYERS Championship. Dubbed “the fifth major” in previous years due to the star power that attended, this event routinely brings out the best (or worst) in the field.

Due to the March weather that can come into play in Ponte Vedra, this event can feature volatile results. We’ve seen this happen in 2022: Nearly half of the field put up high-70s-to-low-80s scores as an average during a stretch when torrential wind and rain limited ball carry to half of their expected distance. 

Nonetheless, The PLAYERS always promises a terrific atmosphere and outcome. I’m wading through the uncertainty to bet on these golf picks.

Xander Schauffele: Finish Top 20 in The PLAYERS (+105) • Hard Rock Sportsbook

This volatile event could allow nearly anyone to contend. TPC Sawgrass is a Pete Dye course that can be scoreable with its below-average length.

However, some of the big guns have plenty of solid results here. Xander is no exception.

Xander Schauffele is a perfect example of being unpredictable but often honing his skills toward some strong finishes. The American has married three missed cuts at TPC across his last five appearances, with a T2 last season and a T19 in his first appearance.

Schauffele enters the event in solid form, with four Top 10 finishes in six events this season. I have plenty of confidence in him handling anything that TPC Sawgrass throws at him, especially with his efficient greens play this year. 

Justin Thomas: Win The PLAYERS (+2500) • DraftKings Sportsbook

Justin Thomas didn’t get a fair shake in 2022 with one of the most impressive rounds that I have ever watched: a 3-under round of 69 in Round 2, when the winds were gusting at nearly 50 mph and nearly everyone in that wave was shooting high 70s scores.

His follow-up didn’t go as well in 2023, and the whole season was kind of a wash. However, so far in 2024, we have seen the old JT peeking through, with four finishes of T12 or better in five starts.

Thomas is one of the few players that I’d trust in nearly any weather. His proficiency with an iron in hand is tremendous, allowing him to strike the ball as well as anyone when he’s on. All he needs is the putter to be working. 

Thomas has the upside to light the world on fire on one of golf’s biggest stages.

NASCAR Food City 500 Preview & Picks

The launch of sports betting in North Carolina this week means that fans in the “home state” of NASCAR can wager on races for the first time. 

The sport carries deep roots in North Carolina, which serves as the base for several racing teams, including Hendrick Motorsports, Stewart-Haas Racing, and Penske Racing. North Carolina is the ultimate destination for the NASCAR fan, with attractions including the NASCAR Hall of Fame and the Dale Earnhardt Tribute Plaza. 

The first event North Carolina bettors can wager on is Sunday’s Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway in Tennessee at 3:30 p.m. ET. 

I’m leaning toward three prime picks to win the March 17 Cup series race. Odds might change after qualifying. 

Christopher Bell (+550) • DraftKings Sportsbook

Last week’s winner at Phoenix Raceway has placed in the Top 4 in his last two starts at Bristol and has led for 330 laps in those events. In the last two BMS races, he leads all drivers with a 132.8 Driver Rating. 

Denny Hamlin (+500) • DraftKings Sportsbook

Denny Hamlin’s opening odds are short, so there’s not as much profit potential here. However, the confidence is earned: The three-time Bristol winner captured the checkered flag in last year’s event. 

Chris Buescher (+1100) • DraftKings Sportsbook

The No. 17 driver finished second at Phoenix last week, won at BMS in 2022 and finished fourth in 2023. Also consider betting Chris Buescher to finish Top 5 (+140) and Top 3 (+300).

Bristol Motor Speedway Track Betting Notes

The Food City 500 is a 500-lap, short-track event. The race winner has started from the pole a total of 27 times (22.13%) – the most successful starting position in the field.

Bettors should be targeting a few drivers/cars who can potentially dominate and lead for many laps. Monitoring qualifying and practice will be essential to locking in wagers. 

This is a long race, so tire wear will be a potential concern. Once a driver falls a lap down, his outlook will be heavily damaged. Lock in a potential dominator during live betting: The cars that run up front early will likely stay up front.