Are We Riding with this Rookie?!

OK, we’re big baseball fans, but we’ll admit it: that World Series was a stinker. Congrats to the Texas Rangers and their $251M payroll, I guess. 🏆

Now that the baseball season is behind, we’re fully diving into Thursday Night Football and the Sunday slate of games. (Who are we kidding, 🏈 is always king.)

Let’s get into it! 👇

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREVIEW

I don’t think anyone had “Will Levis comes into his first ever NFL game and tosses four touchdowns, three of over 45 yards, in an upset win" on their Bingo card this week. I know I absolutely did not.

However, mama, there goes that man. Levis looked terrific against an Atlanta Falcons pass defense that had not looked bad at all prior to this game. Levis was supposed to trade off drives with Malik Willis, but after Willis fumbled his first snap, Levis took the majority of snaps.

He ran with them, throwing three touchdowns to DeAndre Hopkins and pretty much cementing his role as the new starting QB, given how bad Ryan Tannehill has looked at times.

On the other side, Kenny Pickett has said he will play in this contest despite injuring his ribs badly enough that he missed the rest of last week’s game, and Mitchell Trubisky did not look good backing him up. Despite the fact that this is a Titans’ pass defense ranked 25th in Pass DVOA, I’m taking an under given Pickett’s ribs.

We have seen rookies struggle in their first starts on the road, and I’m sure Levis will have some growing pains in this one. However, there is enough data that Pittsburgh is not a great team and is playing with a hurt quarterback.

Therefore, I’m backing the road dog in this game because there is nothing that Mike Vrabel loves more than playing as an underdog. - Sam Wagman 

Get deeper into the game with our Thursday Night Football predictions. 

WEEK 9 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

Frank Ammirante is one of the top fantasy football rankers in the industry for the 2023 season. He placed in the top two in the FantasyPros Accuracy rankings for Weeks 4 and 5, and he has finished in the top 15 in three of the past five weeks and in the top 25 in four of the last five. Here are some highlighted plays from Frank for Week 9, and you can find all of his rankings here. 

• Joe Burrow looks back to full health, fresh off a terrific performance vs the 49ers in which he completed 28-of-32 passes for 283 yards and three touchdowns. You can fire up Burrow as a Top 5 fantasy quarterback in a potential shootout vs the Bills.

• Alvin Kamara is averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game, which is overall RB2 on the season. This is a great matchup vs the Bears, who are allowing 8.15 yards per target to running backs, which ranks 32nd. We just saw Austin Ekeler (seven catches for 94 yards) have a big game vs Chicago.

• Dalton Kincaid is showing us why he was so highly touted as a prospect, combining for 13 catches, 140 yards, and one touchdown in his last two games. The Bills' rookie gets a great matchup against the Bengals, who rank 32nd vs tight ends this season.

BEFORE YOU KEEP SCROLLING …

Sleeper is a DFS app that provides an interactive and collaborative experience, adding a social element to both daily and season-long fantasy contests through group chats and other customizable features. Its intuitive app enhances the user experience, which includes contests that combine both DFS and player props. Get up to $100 on your first deposit from The Game Day!

FOUR FEATURED ITEMS FOR THE SUNDAY SLATE

1. Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins: A prime matchup starts the Sunday slate in Frankfurt, Germany. Both teams need a win for different reasons. Miami has yet to beat a real contender this season, and must overcome the Chiefs to show it truly belongs with the best teams in the AFC. Kansas City has to bounce back after a flat Week 8 performance. This game could go either way, so the best bet is to take the Over of 51. 

2. Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens: This is a tasty clash of two teams aiming to score a significant win that would elevate them in the power rankings and raise their profiles among the best teams in their respective conferences. The spread of Seattle +6 is just too large and rather disrespectful, even if the Ravens win. Lock in the Seahawks to cover as a top wager of the week. 

3. Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas has actually won four of the last five meetings in this legendary rivalry. The Cowboys can also potentially regain firm status among the top-shelf teams in the NFC with a win. Dallas was knocked off a lofty tier in the conference when they were hammered by San Francisco in Week 5. The Cowboys on the moneyline at +140 is a gutsy play, and the Eagles prop to score first and lose at +425 is tempting, too. 

4. Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals: Buffalo is coming off three unimpressive performances, including a loss to New England. The Bills are another team looking to make a contender statement and will keep this one close. The resurgent Bengals, though, are back in their best form, so take them to cover the -2.5 spread. - Scott Engel

WEEK 9 STARTS AND SITS

Start/sit decisions don’t have to be tough! Michelle Magdziuk makes it easy for you with “Fire & Ice”, her industry-standard start/sits piece.

Start: Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (@ CAR)

Downs is one of four rookies to have 400+ receiving yards this season — and he has only just started to break out. Over the last three weeks, Downs has recorded 243 receiving yards and two touchdowns. 

The Saints might seem like a tough matchup for Downs, but it is actually the exact opposite. 

Per Next Gen Stats, the Saints have allowed the most receiving yards in the NFL to WRs out of the slot this season, while Downs has the fourth most yards out of the slot, behind only Adam Thielen, Christian Kirk, and Keenan Allen. 

Sit: Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals (@ CLE)

A relatively simple take here is that if you can afford not to have to trust assumed starter Clayton Tune, the rookie QB who is supposed to start this week in one of the last weeks before Kyler Murray makes his return, then you shouldn’t trust him.

Tune has no NFL experience thus far and now gets a ferocious Cleveland defense in his debut that can overwhelm the Browns’ offensive that ranks 22nd in Pass Block Win Rate, per ESPN Analytics.

Thus, we cannot trust Brown.

Fill out your Week 9 lineups with the full rundown of starts and sits. 

SLEEPERS AND BUSTS

Every week on TheGameDay.com, Scott ‘The King” Engel provides his full rundown of fantasy football sleepers and busts. Scott is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Hall of Fame.

😴 SLEEPER: Zack Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts: Even though Jonathan Taylor has been progressively re-emerging as the lead RB for the Colts, Moss has remained in the mix as part of a timeshare. In Week 8, Moss saw less reps, yet made the most of his touches.    

Taylor played on a season-high 61 percent of the snaps in Week 8. Moss still rushed for 66 yards and a TD on 11 attempts. Among NFC teams, the Panthers have allowed the most Fantasy Points Per Game to RBs, and they also have allowed 11 rushing TDs to RBs, tied for the most in the NFL. 

😴 SLEEPER: Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots: Henry has caught just six passes in his last four games, but the Patriots need him to help compensate for the loss of Kendrick Bourne. Demario Douglas can beat defenders with his downfield skills and occasional shorter grabs, but Henry needs to be more reliable as a chain-moving target and pass-catcher on key downs. 

Washington is vulnerable to TEs, allowing the second-most FFPG to the position.

💥 BUST: Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens: Edwards has come on strong in the past two games, with five TDs from scrimmage and 90-plus scrimmage yards in each game. Most of his production has come on rushes, as he has three receptions in the past two games. Seattle’s stout run defense ranks fourth in rushing yards allowed to RBs. 

💥 BUST: DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: He has been unreliable this season, but Smith did deliver a quality fantasy performance in Week 8, catching all seven of his targets for 99 yards and a TD. He could disappoint again in Week 9, though, as Dallas ranks first in receptions allowed to WRs and second in yardage allowed to the position. A.J. Brown is unstoppable and will still get his numbers. Smith, however, may not have much of a statistical ceiling in this matchup. 

View more Week 9 fantasy football sleepers from Scott Engel here. 

FANTASY FOOTBALL MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

Each week, Sam Wagman takes you through some of his favorite fantasy football matchups to exploit. Whether it’s a stat-based take or a pure gut feeling, Sam makes it easy for you to make tough lineup calls with his Matchups to Exploit article.

WR/CB: Cowboys WRs vs Eagles CBs

It hurts, but here is a very advantageous matchup for the Cowboys’ WR group. Last year, the Eagles lined up in zone coverage a ton against the Cowboys in Week 16, and Dak Prescott had one of his best passing days of the season.

I expect that to weigh heavily on Mike McCarthy’s mind, and while Sean Desai is a different coordinator than Jonathan Gannon, the Eagles may trot out zone again. 

I am most concerned about CeeDee Lamb up against whoever the Eagles decide to put out in nickel, as Lamb has torched the Eagles over the middle of the field in his career.

WR/CB: Rashee Rice, KC vs Kade Kohou, MIA

Miami spends about half of its time in zone coverage, which bodes well for Rice, whose playing time has been on the rise for the last month or so. Rice has averaged over a 30% target share vs zone coverage and has a 90.4 receiving grade against it, a number that ranks third-best in the NFL.

Looking at the specific matchup, Miami has been the NFL’s worst defense in man coverage, which they run a solid amount and should run more now that they have Jalen Ramsey back. Rice hasn’t been as good vs man, but he still has a 23% target share vs the coverage. 

Get the winning fantasy advantage with more Week 9 Matchups To Exploit.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK 🔒

Carolina needs to keep winning games because they don't have their first-rounder. We're starting to see Bryce Young find his groove lately, as the rookie is coming off the best game of his career vs the Texans.

Young completed 71% of his passes for 235 yards and a touchdown, earning a 68.6 PFF Passing Grade, which was his best of the season.

This is a great spot to keep it rolling against the Colts, who rank 21st in EPA vs the pass.

Daniel Jones is expected to return for this one, which is good news for New York's offense. We should see Saquon Barkley have a big game vs the Raiders, who just got gashed by Jahmyr Gibbs and D'Onta Foreman.

Las Vegas fired Josh McDaniels on Wednesday, hiring former Giants' linebacker Antonio Pierce as the interim head coach. I'm not buying into the revenge game narrative for this one.

The Raiders are expected to start Aidan O'Connell, who put up a 37.1 PFF Pass Grade in his lone start vs the Chargers. 

Move on more Week 9 parlays with Frank Ammirante. 

IN OTHER NEWS 🏀

There’s no better way to wake up than to roll over, open your eyes and stare at your gorgeous … iPhone that has a Woj bomb notification.

Earlier this week, the Clippers traded for James Harden in a blockbuster deal.

Vegas rightfully had the Clippers’ odds to win it all jumping from +2500 to +1300. You riding this one?

It makes sense, but I’m not buying it. Harden, PG, Kawhi and Russ on the same team is SCARY. But it also sounds like drama.

Gimme the Bucks as 2023-24 NBA champs.

Thanks for reading! Want more from The Game Day? Visit thegameday.com, follow @TheGameDayNFL on social and check out the Caps Off Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts. Also, be sure to add this email to your primary inbox.

@capsoffpodcast

Week 8 was a WILD one 😲 #nflstats #nflstatsontap #nflstat #nflstatistics #kansascitychiefsnfl #chiefsfansbelike #afcwestslander #afcwestpr... See more