The Most Sought-After Player on Waivers This Week ...

We’re just a few days away from a full day of eating until we burst and sitting in front of the TV to watch football all day. Truly nothing more American. 🫡

We’ve got a busy holiday week ahead, so we’ll dive right in. (As a programming note, we’ll send Thursday’s newsletter on Wednesday so you’ll have plenty of time to set your lineups and get your bets in order ahead of the Thanksgiving parade.)

Before we discuss betting lines, waiver wire pickups and more, we gotta know:

PLAYERS YOU NEED TO TARGET ON WAIVERS 🎯

Every week, our Scott Engel dives deep into the waiver wire to scour players that you should be picking up to get ahead of the rest of your leaguemates. Let’s take a look at this week’s top adds.

Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings (48% rostered in sleeper leagues)

Ty Chandler appeared to be in line to start in Week 11, but Alexander Mattison made it through the concussion protocols and still functioned as the lead runner for Minnesota. But Chandler saw enough work in a timeshare role to be worthy of an add if he is still available in your league. 

On 10 carries, Chandler rushed for 73 yards, although 31 of his yards came on a fake punt. He did finish with 37 receiving yards on four catches. 

Mattison is not going away, as some fantasy players have been speculating since the summer, but Chandler should be picked up for possible streaming usage as an RB fill-in or flex play.  

Be sure to check where Chandler will fit in our Week 12 fantasy football rankings. 

Ty Chandler FAAB Bid: 10% of your available budget

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers (43%)

Jayden Reed has emerged as the best fantasy football WR option on the Packers roster. The rookie has totaled 80-plus yards in two of his past four games and has been targeted five-plus times in three of his past four. He has rushing and receiving TDs in his last two games and can be used as a quality streamer.

The production may increase for Reed in the weeks ahead, as it is apparent that Jordan Love needs to get him the ball often. 

Jayden Reed FAAB Bid: 11% of your available budget

Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens (5%)

The loss of Mark Andrews will make Isaiah Likely the most sought-after player on the fantasy football waiver wire in Week 12. The second-year TE did catch eight passes for 113 yards in the season finale in 2022.

You will have to bid heavily on Likely, a promising pass-catcher who is well-known in fantasy circles for his potential. A possible impact performer at the thinnest position in the game will spur some players to spend a major portion of their free agent budgets.  

Isaiah Likely FAAB Bid: 55% of your available budget, or possibly more, based on your knowledge of how aggressive bidding can be in a specific league. My recommendations are a loose guideline and minimum. 

OVERREACTION & UNDERREACTION

Every Tuesday, we go through our favorite overreaction and underreaction because what fantasy football players don’t react rationally to every bit of news they hear and see?!

Overreaction: Zach Charbonnet is a league-winner

Kenneth Walker (oblique) was forced out of action early against the Rams, thrusting Zach Charbonnet into an increased role. The rookie rushed 15 times for 47 yards while catching all six of his targets for 22 yards.

There’s a good chance that Walker will have to miss at least one game — possibly more — which has created a lot of buzz around Charbonnet’s fantasy value for the rest of the season, with some even calling him a “league-winner.”

However, we need to temper our expectations here because the Seahawks have a tough schedule coming up, including matchups with the 49ers (twice), Cowboys, and Eagles. These are some of the toughest run defenses in the NFL.

While Charbonnet should provide RB2 value in Walker’s absence, I wouldn’t get overly excited about his outlook. 

Underreaction: Calvin Ridley is ready to deliver on preseason hype

Calvin Ridley had a spike week against the Titans, catching 7-of-9 targets for 103 yards and two touchdowns along with an 18-yard run. There’s one interesting correlation that has us feeling excited about Ridley going forward.

The former Falcon has had his best games with Zay Jones in the lineup. In fact, Ridley has gone over 100 yards in each of those games.

This makes sense because the Jaguars like to use Jones as a deep threat to make space underneath for the other receivers. When he’s out, Ridley takes on that role.

But when Zay plays, Ridley is free to run a more diverse route tree, which takes advantage of his well-rounded skill set. Instead of being used strictly on the perimeter, Ridley can line up in the slot more often. 

As long as Jones stays healthy, Ridley should be able to have a strong finish to the year. Consider him as an upside WR2 moving forward. 

THE HINDSIGHT REPORT 🔮📝

We’re officially halfway through the NFL season! Every Tuesday, Sam Wagman will use the powers of hindsight to look back on players we thought would be good for fantasy this season but aren’t, and vice versa.

It’s time to have the Christian Watson talk, isn’t it?

Such high hopes, such projectable upside for the young second-year receiver out of North Dakota State University, who wowed us late in the 2022 campaign by putting up a blistering seven touchdowns in a four-game stretch, during which he was a WR1 in all four games.

Going into the 2023 season, despite the departure of Aaron Rodgers, we thought Watson would be able to capitalize on his rookie talents by developing and taking the fabled second-year leap that we as fantasy football players look to see out of the wide receiver position. Did we overlook some of the deep concerns with the Green Bay Packers, though?

For one, the obvious question was whether Jordan Love would be able to replicate Rodgers’ ability to throw pinpoint balls into tight windows. (C’mon now, nobody can do that.) We also wondered whether Matt LaFleur was truly an offensive wizard or whether Rodgers’ ability to go off-schedule at the line was the actual mastermind behind the offensive success.

All of this leads us to what actually happened: Watson’s second season has been an abject failure thus far. He hasn’t had more than three catches in a single game, he’s surpassed 37 receiving yards just once (thanks to a random 80-yard play), and — despite his field-stretching talents — Love has just not been able to hit him downfield.

On top of all of this, both rookie Jayden Reed and second-year fourth-rounder Romeo Doubs have outplayed Watson most of the time on the field. Reed, especially, has been a driving force in helping move the ball lately as he routinely provides a nice spark both running and receiving.

You likely drafted Watson in the fourth or fifth round of your redraft leagues this year, and now you’re stuck with a receiver from one of the least efficient offenses in the league.

OK, BET 💰

Each Tuesday, Sam Wagman will take a peek at the week ahead’s betting spread and total lines on our partner FanDuel to determine which lines you should grab ahead of time.

Arizona Cardinals ML (-112) vs Los Angeles Rams 

This is a spot I really like for Arizona. They just turned over C.J. Stroud three times in Sunday’s loss and — despite not pulling out the victory — had a real shot at winning that game.

Now, they get the Rams at home in what should be a winnable matchup, especially after Cooper Kupp went down with an ankle injury in his game and may not be available for this one. While Puka Nacua’s emergence has been great, the Rams are much better with Kupp available.

The Cardinals have looked much better since Murray returned a couple of weeks ago, and that was always going to be the case since Murray has been a top-performing QB when healthy. I believe his game could sweep the Rams’ defense off their feet.

The X-factor in this game could be the potential return of Kyren Williams off of injured reserve. His grind-it-out style of running could be what the Rams need, but will he be ready?

Miami Dolphins -9.5 (-110) @ New York Jets

I love this pick, coming off the heels of the Zach Wilson benching. Tim Boyle steps in as the Jets’ new quarterback, but is Boyle any better than Wilson? I think there’s an argument to be made that he’s nowhere close to Wilson.

Boyle has thrown 120 passes in his six-year NFL career, but nine of them have been interceptions. That’s a 7.5% interception ratio, and if you stick that up there all-time, it ranks third-worst (woof).

He didn’t look very good on Sunday when put in for Wilson, either, going 7-14 for 33 yards and a pick. How do we think he fares against notorious ballhawks Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard?

I really don’t even have to touch the Dolphins’ offense to say that you should take Miami in this game. The Bills made the Jets’ pass defense look pretty tame on Sunday, and I reckon that Miami, who has looked better most of the time, does the exact same.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans: Over 46.5 (-115)

This total should be MUCH higher. It implies that neither team scores more than 24 points, but I could easily see both of these two teams hitting 30 points.

Both teams pass a lot. C.J. Stroud ranks second in the NFL in passing yards and has been chucking it all over the field lately, and while Trevor Lawrence has not had the best season, he’s passed for 260+ yards in two of his past three games.

I love both of these team’s offenses. On Jacksonville’s side, with Zay Jones back in the mix, Calvin Ridley just had his best game of the season and finally could step into that WR1 role, while Travis Etienne is one of the best running backs in football and could move against this Texans’ defense that can’t stop the run.

On the Houston side, nobody has been able to stop Tank Dell, and I don’t see the Jaguars — who have given up the seventh-most yards on passes that travel 20+ yards downfield this season — stopping Dell or Nico Collins. Getting the running game going could be an issue, but Devin Singletary does have back-to-back games of 100+ rushing yards.

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