START Chuba Hubbard in Week 4!

Plus: Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL TD Props, NFL Parlays, & SNF

Chuba Hubbard went off Sunday against the Raiders, finishing as RB5 for the week.

Now, he has another exploitable matchup against the Bengals, who have allowed big games to Rhamondre Stevenson and Isiah Pacheco.

Both Stevenson (126 yards) and Pacheco (111 yards) exposed this vulnerable Cincy defense.

Look for the Panthers to continue leaning on Hubbard. I'd start him over Rachaad White this week.

Find out my other Week 4 Start & Sit picks below.

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📋 BACK OFFICE BUZZ: THE RUNDOWN 9/29/24

  • Fantasy Football Rankings

  • NFL TD Props

  • NFL Parlays

  • Vikings vs Packers

  • Sunday Night Football

👀 Fantasy Football Rankings

After a dud in Week 1, Marvin Harrison Jr. has delivered on lofty expectations, finishing as WR1 and WR19 in the last two games.

The rookie wideout is set up for a smash spot at home against the Commanders in Week 4.

Not only is Trey McBride (concussion) out this week, but the Commanders’ defense has been burned by receivers all year, such as Chris Godwin, Malik Nabers, and Ja’Marr Chase.

There’s a good chance that we get another spike week from Harrison Jr.

For more fantasy football advice, read our Week 4 rankings. Frank Ammirante finished 12th overall for Week 1 in FantasyPros accuracy. Last season, he was 6th overall.

🎯 NFL TD Props

Travis Kelce: Anytime TD (+170)

By his lofty standards, Kelce has had a particularly slow start to the season. Through three games, he has made eight catches for 69 yards and is yet to score a touchdown.

However, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes both came to the star tight end’s defense in the media this week, saying that opposing defenses are taking Kelce away, thus opening up room for Rashee Rice and others.

We saw a similar narrative last week with Browns WR Amari Cooper, who then caught seven passes for 86 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Giants.

Mahomes won’t force-feed Kelce if he isn’t open, but I’m sure Reid will have a few unique looks drawn up to help get him going. Kelce should also benefit from the suspension of Chargers safety Derwin James, who likely would’ve drawn that assignment defensively.

These odds have gone too far for someone who has scored nine or more touchdowns in three of the past four seasons.

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 🏈 NFL Parlays

Week 4 NFL Longshot Parlay (+1414)

  • Packers -2.5 (-115) vs Vikings

  • Eagles -2.5 (-110) @ Buccaneers

  • Colts ML (+102) vs Steelers

  • Saints ML (+110) @ Falcons

My Week 4 NFL longshot parlay begins with the Green Bay Packers covering as short favorites against the Minnesota Vikings.

Green Bay QB Jordan Love is expected to return following his Week 1 knee injury, which should make this offense more balanced as it prepares to take on Brian Flores' well-schemed defense. While Sam Darnold and Minnesota have been extremely impressive so far, I think this is a great time to sell high on the Vikings, especially on the road after another impressive win.

Pairing the Packers with the Eagles to cover as short favorites makes a lot of sense. Philadelphia has revenge on the menu in Week 4 as it heads to Tampa Bay, where its season ended in the wild-card round last year.

Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley should be able to have success against a Bucs run defense allowing 137.7 rushing yards per game on nearly five yards per carry. As long as one of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith play, the Eagles should win by at least a field goal.

Next, I'm taking the Colts to win outright at home against the undefeated Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has dominated opposing offenses, allowing an NFL-low 8.7 points per game through three weeks.

However, the Steelers have played the Falcons in Kirk Cousins' first game off an Achilles tear, the Broncos in Bo Nix's second start, and the Chargers with a banged-up Justin Herbert. Eventually, regression will come for Pittsburgh. I wouldn't be shocked if Justin Fields and Co. come out flat in their third road game this month.

Lastly, I'm taking the New Orleans Saints to bounce back from last week's loss to Philadelphia when they visit the Atlanta Falcons. Everyone was hyping up the Saints last week, and now no one wants anything to do with them. That's a buy sign in my book.

The Falcons aren't great at pressuring opposing QBs — they have the second-lowest pressure rate in the league this season at 11.3% — which is the surefire way to rattle Derek Carr. With a clean pocket, look for Carr to return to the form we saw in Weeks 1 and 2.

🏈 Vikings vs Packers

Vikings vs Packers Best Bets

Aaron Jones: Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

We've got an Aaron Jones revenge game against his former team on Sunday.

Jones has looked terrific this season, averaging 5.4 YPC. He’s also coming off a 102-yard game against the Texans.

This is an exploitable matchup against the Packers, who were gashed on the ground by Saquon Barkley in Week 1.

We're getting a reasonable bar at 58.5 rushing yards, so take the Over on Jones.

🎬 Sunday Night Football

SNF Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Bills 24

The Bills have been the most impressive team in the NFL through three weeks.

Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level, leading the league in total touchdowns (nine), QBR (92.6), and passer rating (133.7). The Buffalo defense has also been superb, allowing 16 points per game and forcing six turnovers.

However, after outlasting Arizona in the season opener, Buffalo has beaten up Miami and Jacksonville, two teams that look dreadfully off the pace and offered minimal resistance defensively.

Baltimore will represent a far tougher challenge. The Ravens specialize in stopping the run, limiting opposing rushers to 50 yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry — both best in the NFL thus far. That should go a long way to helping slow down this Bills offense, which has leaned more on the run since OC Joe Brady took over play-calling duties last season.

On the flip side, Buffalo’s defense hasn’t had as much success against the run without do-it-all linebacker Matt Milano, allowing 118.3 yards per game on nearly five yards per rush. That’s a concern against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who combined for 238 yards and three scores on the ground against the Cowboys last week.

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