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Is the Super Bowl Too Close to Call? + First Look at SB Player Props

PLUS: Are you Team Kelce or over it all?

Anything sadder than Pro Bowl weekend?

While we wait another whole weekend for the Super Bowl, I’ll still be over here stewing over the Travis Kelce-Justin Tucker drama.

Disclaimer: Am I a salty Ravens fan? Absolutely.

However, picking a fight … with a kicker … who is the greatest of all time at the position? While Tucker kicks 66-yard field goals, Kelce, you can kick rocks.

OK, I’m probably being dramatic, but as a Baltimore sports fan, fewer Ravens are more beloved than Tucker. I mean, walk around the city and you’ll see a ton of people sporting his jersey. Where else are people shelling out money for a kicker’s jersey?!

Anyway, don’t mind me, I’ll just be continuing to think about the video above and the Zay Flowers fumble at the goal line while our team at The Game Day locks in their Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl MVP bets.

Let’s dive in and take a look around the sports world through our sports betting lens. As a note, all odds used in this newsletter were current as of Wednesday, Jan. 31. — Olivia Witherite

IN TODAY'S BACK OFFICE BUZZ

EARLY SUPER BOWL LINES

San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs

This Super Bowl 54 rematch presents similar circumstances to the previous meeting. 

The only discernible difference is that Tyreek Hill is no longer in Kansas City (clearly a minor effect), and Jimmy Garoppolo is no longer in San Francisco (big difference).

Both squads have struggled on their journeys back to the Big Game, have looked at times uneasy during the regular season, and have had to overcome concerns to get here.

When I look at this matchup, I see a lot of youth versus a grizzled veteran group. 

Despite the 49ers seemingly being ready, they have overhauled their defense from the last time they were here, and a lot of the new faces are young and inexperienced in this moment. On the other side sit the defending Super Bowl champs, featuring Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andy Reid, Chris Jones, and plenty of experienced options who hone in on the big stage. 

Neither side presents a true edge, though. We can talk all day about the matchups, that Kelce will school the 49ers LBs in coverage after what Lions TE Sam LaPorta did, and the obvious advantage Christian McCaffrey would have against a Chiefs rush defense that has looked feckless.

I care about experience in these spots. The Chiefs have the seasoning.

I’ll need to find more value than a straight moneyline, though, given how evenly matched the sportsbooks and markets have priced SB 58. 

Barring voters feeding the Kelce <3 Taylor Swift hype machine, Mahomes likely would win the Super Bowl MVP trophy after a Chiefs win. To this end, you can get Mahomes MVP (+140) on FanDuel, at implied odds of 41.6%. — Sam Wagman 

FIRST LOOK: SUPER BOWL PLAYER PROPS

Patrick Mahomes: Under 1.5 Passing TD (+110) • DraftKings Sportsbook

Patrick Mahomes is a two-time Super Bowl MVP who passed for two TDs in his first Super Bowl matchup with the 49ers, so many will chase this wager based on reputation. However, recent trends indicate the superstar passer will miss the Over on this prop.

In six of his past eight games, Mahomes has not tossed more than one TD. In their past four games that have mattered (excluding the regular-season finale), the Niners have yielded just seven TD passes. 

In the NFC Championship Game, Detroit scored 31 points yet finished with one passing TD, instead electing to use running backs for its other three drive-finishing scores. 

Kansas City totaled seven offensive TDs in three AFC playoff games, and three of them were on runs by Isiah Pacheco, who should remain a preferred option near the goal line. 

George Kittle: Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (+130) • DraftKings Sportsbook

During the AFC Championship Game, the Baltimore Ravens should’ve worked to avoid the stout Kansas City secondary as much as possible, instead throwing frequently to their tight ends and running backs. 

Featuring the duo of Christian McCaffrey — the NFL’s best pass-catching RB — and an established top TE in George Kittle, San Francisco is better equipped to execute such an approach.

In five of his past seven games, Kittle finished with 54-plus receiving yards. That’s hardly a daunting benchmark: The inventor of National Tight Ends Day led the position with 1,020 receiving yards during the regular season. 

During the regular season, Kansas City ranked 10th in receiving yards allowed to TEs, so No. 85 is not facing a shutdown unit. The Chiefs were much stingier against WRs, ranking fourth in yardage allowed. — Scott Engel

NBA CENTER COURT REKINDLES CLASSIC RIVALRY

Los Angeles Lakers @ New York Knicks: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET

The New York Knicks are the hottest team in the NBA, having rattled off a 14-win January – their best calendar month in a season since 1994. 

The Knicks will now host the greatest player in the game on the sport’s biggest stage when LeBron James makes his only appearance of the season Saturday at Madison Square Garden.  

New York has won eight consecutive games heading into a Thursday matchup with Indiana, continuing to streak despite the recent absences of Julius Randle (shoulder) and OG Anunoby (elbow). Luckily, Donte DiVincenzo (33 and 28 points in his last two games, respectively) and Jalen Brunson (29-plus points with seven-plus assists in each of his past three) have picked up the slack. 

Before facing the Boston Celtics on Thursday, the Lakers had lost two consecutive games by double digits in two nights. Los Angeles slipped below .500 despite James averaging 23.6 points, 8.5 assists, and 7.6 rebounds per game in January. 

The Knicks won the first meeting on Dec. 19, 114-109, when Brunson scored 11 of his 29 points in the fourth quarter. New York will be without Randle again on Saturday, but I expect the home team to prevail as the Knicks have consistently held down lesser opponents, beating Utah by 15 on Tuesday despite being short-handed. 

On the last leg of a huge two-game Northeast test during a six-game road trip, the Lakers may prove too weary to stop a sizzling club in a loud road building.

  • Once the odds come out, I will lean toward the Knicks’ moneyline and spread.

  • While we’re at it, consider taking the Knicks to Win the Eastern Conference (+1400) on DraftKings Sportsbook. They have longer odds than Miami, who lost to New York by 16 last Saturday. — Scott Engel

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2024 NHL ALL-STAR WEEKEND

The vibes are high on the ice as the NHL returns to Toronto for the 2024 All-Star Game. With FIRE jerseys that drew house and Justin Bieber helped design and celebrity captains that include Canadian superstar singer Tate McRae, the NHL has added some HYPE to this year’s All-Star Game.

Hockey’s home-office party will feature the return of the All-Star draft, the annual skills competition, and three-game, 3-on-3 All-Star Game on Saturday. 

Four fan-voted captains will draft their teams tonight (Thursday). Their clubs then will square off in two-half, 20-minute games at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday, with the Finals victors sharing $1 million.

Friday’s revamped NHL Skills competition will see 12 of the most skilled players compete in eight events. The victorious player will take home $1 million.

Smart money would back Connor McDavid to outlast the rest. Of course, since defense will also take a break for the showcase, hammer the Over for the All-Star Game matchups. — Pat Pickens & Frank Ammirante

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