🎶 SWEET 16 (🏠) ALABAMA 🎶

No. 1 Alabama vs No. 5 San Diego State

Tonight at 6:30 PM on TBS

The Crimson Tide are one of the last two remaining 1-seeds left in the tournament and have a favorable draw the rest of the way. The highest remaining seed in the South Region after Alabama are the 5-seeded San Diego State Aztecs.

The Aztecs knocked off the Cinderella-hopeful Furman Paladins in the Round of 32, and Alabama blew out the Maryland Terrapins in the second round. The Crimson Tide have only made the Elite 8 once in their program’s history in 2004, and San Diego State has never advanced beyond the Sweet 16.

• Moneyline: Alabama (-300) • San Diego State (+250)

• Spread: Alabama -7 (-110) • San Diego State +7 (-110)

• Total: Over 135 (-110) • Under 135 (-110)

This will be a defensive battle as both teams are in the top five of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. Alabama and San Diego State both held their opponents in the Round of 32 to under 55 points. The Aztecs will be able to hang around in this contest because of their defense, but they don’t have the offensive firepower to beat the Crimson Tide.

San Diego State is not a three-point shooting team and is ranked 69th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency rankings. They rely on their offensive rebounding and easy baskets around the rim to score.

This is going to be a low-scoring game with two strong defenses on display. The Aztecs also play at a slower pace than the Crimson Tide and will look to work the ball into the paint for easy baskets.

Read more from Ani Sridhar’s Alabama vs San Diego State Predictions.

No. 1 Houston vs No. 5 Miami

Tonight at 7:15 PM on CBS

No. 1 seed Houston and No. 5 seed Miami are both looking to head back to the Elite 8 for the second straight year.

Houston struggled but survived in the opening round against Northern Kentucky; they trailed Auburn by 10 at the half in the second round but turned up the defensive intensity, holding the Tigers to just four made field goals in the second half. The offense followed suit with a 50-23 second half to advance to their fourth straight Sweet 16.

Miami needed a comeback of its own against Drake in the opening round, but took care of business against Indiana in the Round of 32. The Hurricanes nearly led wire-to-wire and pulled away late to beat the Hoosiers 85-69. Miami made the Elite 8 last year for the first time in program history.

• Moneyline: Houston (-285) • Miami (+240)

• Spread: Houston -7 (-110) • Miami +7 (-110)

• Total: Over 137 (-110) • Under 137 (-110)

Houston is too talented and matches up with Miami quite well. Their impressive backcourt defense will neutralize Miami’s guard play.

With an extra couple of days of rest for Sasser and Shead to get healthy, Houston will be able to do enough offensively to control the game throughout.

The experience and talent will show up late as Houston pulls away to win by double digits and advance to their third straight Elite 8.

Read more from Lance Patton’s Houston vs Miami Predictions.

No. 6 Creighton vs No. 15 Princeton

Tonight at 9:00 PM on TBS

The Creighton Bluejays have been a streaky team all season after starting the year in the top 10 of the preseason AP poll.

They slipped after losing six straight games to start December but picked it up later during conference play. They strung together eight straight wins near the end of the regular season, regaining their momentum.

Princeton is looking to be the second straight and second ever 15-seed to reach the Elite 8 after fellow New Jersey school Saint Peter’s accomplished the feat in last year’s tournament. Princeton shocked the World beating Arizona in the first round before comfortably knocking off Missouri in the Round of 32.

• Moneyline: Creighton (-500) • Princeton (+400)

• Spread: Creighton -10 (-110) • Princeton +10 (-110)

• Total: Over 140 (-110) • Under 140 (-110)

The Tigers have had a magical run so far but will finally face off against a top defense in the Sweet 16.

Creighton ranks 13th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, which is vastly different from Princeton’s first two opponents. Arizona was 40th and Missouri ranked 176th in the same metric.

If Creighton is knocking down threes then they will easily score more than 75 points in this contest. The Princeton defense is a bit better than Baylor’s, but the Tigers will have trouble running out to contain Princeton’s three-point shooting while also defending 7-foot-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner in the paint.

Read more from Ani Sridhar’s Creighton vs Princeton Predictions.

No. 2 Texas vs No. 3 Xavier

Tonight at 9:45 PM on CBS

Everyone loves the upsets of the NCAA Tournament, but this chalky Sweet 16 matchup between two of the most experienced teams in the nation is going to be a fantastic ball game.

Xavier had to battle to beat Kennesaw St. in the opener but cruised to a win over Pitt behind a fantastic offensive performance. After losing star center Zach Freemantle, it’s won seven of its last eight with everyone doing their part to step up and fill the void.

Texas controlled most of the game using its size and length to bother a dangerous Penn State team. The Nittany Lions went on a 10-0 run that saw Penn State take the lead with just under 5 minutes to go, but the Longhorns closed the game on a 16-8 run to survive and advance.

It was far from Texas’ best performance of the year, as it shot just 1 of 13 from three but senior Dylan Disu dominated with a season-high 28 points and 10 rebounds.

• Moneyline: Texas (-190) • Xavier (+160)

• Spread: Texas -4 (-110) • Xavier +4 (-110)

• Total: Over 147.5 (-110) • Under 147.5 (-110)

Texas is too talented, in a far better place in terms of injuries, and it is able to pull away late to cover this spread.

Xavier’s defense has had its issues this season and missing Freemantle — a big piece of the interior defense — is too much to overcome against an experienced and balanced Texas scoring attack.

The Longhorns can win games however they need to but in this one, the guard play takes over late, knocking down a couple of huge threes late to advance.

Read more from Lance Patton’s Xavier vs Texas Predictions.