Who to Take in TNF + Week 11 Fantasy 🏈 Advice You Need

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TODAY’S NEWSLETTER

• Bengals-Ravens Preview 🐅😈

• Fantasy Football Rankings 🏈📝

• Starts & Sits 💰🪑

• 2024 MLB Preview ⚾️🧢

• Player Stats to Know 📊🔒

• … & Much More! 🧠👇

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREVIEW

We got a week off last week with the Bears and Panthers, but Thursday Night Football roars back with a classic Bengals vs Ravens showdown under the lights. It’s Joe Burrow vs Lamar Jackson, and with the AFC North sitting as the tightest division in the NFL right now, both teams will be fighting hard for a win.

Right now, you have both teams coming off heartbreaking losses, the Bengals falling against the Texans with the Ravens blowing a two-touchdown lead to the Browns. That gives both teams added motivation.

When we look at the Bengals, Burrow has been playing at a super-high level since coming off the bye. However, the Bengals will most likely be without Tee Higgins for another game, and while Ja’Marr Chase put up a long touchdown, he still is battling a back injury. The Ravens have been one of the best teams in the NFL against the pass, and they will need to be firing on all cylinders to take Cincy down.

On Baltimore’s side, this scary team seems to beat itself in spots. The Ravens have had at least an 80% win probability in each of their three losses this season — suggesting that sometimes they have trouble closing — but that might not be difficult against the Bengals’ rush defense, which has given up more than five yards per carry and is allowing the highest explosive rush play percentage in the NFL right now.

This is a great spot for Ravens TE Mark Andrews. The Bengals rank third-worst in defensive DVOA against the tight end position this year, and while Andrews didn’t surpass this number when the two teams played in Week 2, Burrow being healthier now means that this should be another close game.

Andrews has been Jackson’s main passing target this season and the guy he goes to when he absolutely needs to make a play. I believe that Andrews will rise up in this spot with six or more catches, and 58 yards is absolutely in play for him.

When we put all of this together, plus the fact that Jackson is in line for a major positive statistical regression, the Ravens could cement themselves as the best team in the NFL this week with a dominant performance. I expect them to grind out a win here.

 - Sam Wagman 

Get deeper into the game with our Thursday Night Football predictions. 

WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

Frank Ammirante is one of the top fantasy football rankers in the industry for the 2023 season. He placed in the top two in the FantasyPros Accuracy rankings for Weeks 4 and 5, ninth overall in Week 9, and he has finished in the top 15 in four of the past seven weeks and in the top 25 in five of the last seven. Here are some highlighted plays from Frank for Week 11, and you can find all of his rankings here. 

Quarterbacks

• Brock Purdy has a terrific matchup against the Bucs, who are giving up 285.3 passing yards per game this season. The 49ers have a 26.25-point implied total, which is tied for third-highest on the slate.

Running Backs

• Brian Robinson Jr. looks poised for another spike week with the Commanders as 10-point home favorites against the lowly Giants. Washington has a 23.75-point implied total, which ranks ninth in Week 11. Look for a steady dose of Robinson in this one.

Wide Receivers

• Courtland Sutton continues to quietly have a solid season, currently averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game, which ranks as WR28 on the year. This is a great matchup against the Vikings, who are tied for 24th against wideouts.

Tight Ends

• Look for Trey McBride to keep it rolling against the Texans, who are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. McBride looks like a budding star, putting up 2.1 yards per route run, which ranks 5th among tight ends with at least 100 routes.

FOUR FEATURED ITEMS FOR THE SUNDAY SLATE

1. The Chicago Bears get Justin Fields back for an NFC North clash with the Detroit Lions, who are in an unfamiliar spot as the clear division leaders. The Lions will certainly win this game, but Fields had a pair of four-TD outings as a passer before he went down with a recent thumb injury. He won’t approach that TD total again, but Fields was performing well before the injury and a nine-point spread on FanDuel Sportsbook appears to be too large for this divisional game, so take the Bears to cover. 

2. Minnesota and Denver have both bounced back after 1-4 starts, and Joshua Dobbs is a great story, while Russell Wilson has started to recapture a good chunk of his better form. The Vikings have won five straight games, but I will take Wilson in a clutch situation again after he led the Broncos to knock off the Bills. In his career, the longtime Seahawk led 38 game-winning drives in his career, which ranks second among all active NFL quarterbacks. His 30 fourth-quarter comebacks also rank second. Wilson pulls it out again and rewards those who go with Denver at -2.5. 

3. We are going to witness some bad QB play with two star pass rushers involved in the Cleveland-Pittsburgh matchup. This will be a fun day for T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett, but Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Kenny Pickett will suffer. Take the Under of 33.5 in Browns-Steelers. 

4. The Seahawks owe the Rams for Los Angeles stunning them at home in the season opener. Seattle needs a win before embarking on a brutal four-game stretch that includes two meetings with the 49ers and games against the Cowboys and Eagles. Take Seattle on the moneyline at -115.  - Scott Engel

WEEK 11 STARTS & SITS

Start/sit decisions don’t have to be tough! Michelle Magdziuk makes it easy for you with “Fire & Ice”, her industry-standard start/sits piece.

Start: D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears (@DET)

D.J. Moore finally gets his Week 1 quarterback in Justin Fields back for this game, and it’s a good one to get Fields back, as the Lions have allowed the 11th-most passing yards to opposing offenses over their last three games.

Moore has played well against both man and zone coverages this season, where the Lions are a bit below average at both. Expect the Bears to throw plenty in-game and Moore to be the beneficiary.

Sit: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@SF)

The 49ers' defense fell apart prior to their bye week; maybe they will continue to be a bad defense the rest of the season, but I doubt it. 

The trade deadline addition of Chase Young has energized this defense once again, and the Buccaneers are only league-average at pass-blocking.

Despite their recent struggles, the 49ers are still allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the quarterback position in 2023.

Fill out your Week 11 lineups with the full rundown of starts and sits.

SLEEPERS & BUSTS

Every week on TheGameDay.com, Scott ‘The King” Engel provides his full rundown of fantasy football sleepers and busts. Scott is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Hall of Fame.

😴 SLEEPER: Kene Nwangwu, Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos

This is a super-deep Week 11 sleeper who I am actually starting in 14-team leagues. If you are in a tight pinch at RB, consider Nwangwu, who might actually outplay Ty Chandler. 

Chandler was the prime waiver wire pickup of the week at RB in many leagues since he is next in line to start at RB for Minnesota with Alexander Mattison likely to miss the game against Denver due to a concussion. But Chandler averaged 2.9 yards per carry in the preseason and totaled 45 yards on 15 carries in Week 10. 

Opportunity does not always lead to ideal production, and that may be the case for Chandler. Nwangwu is a speedy RB with good vision, and he might have more upside against the Broncos, who have ranked 21st in rushing yards allowed to RBs over the past four weeks.

😴 SLEEPER: Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers

Christian Watson has been dealing with injuries and has not produced as hoped when available. Romeo Doubs has not been a dependable target, either.  

Reed has 80-plus receiving yards in two of his past three games and he has caught TD passes in two of his past four. The Chargers have the worst pass defense in the NFL and rank 27th in FFPG allowed to WRs. 

Even though the Green Bay passing game has tumbled significantly under Jordan Love, the rookie WR is the best bet among his group to potentially take advantage of the matchup.

💥 BUST: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

This entry doesn’t have so much to do with Josh Allen’s erratic real-life play, as he is still posting quality fantasy totals despite his regular turnovers. Allen is hard to bench, but it has to be considered against the Jets, who have shut down nearly all of the top QBs they have faced this season, including Allen in the first meeting of the season, 

New York held Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert to one TD pass or less and intercepted Mahomes and Hurts more than once.  The first time Allen faced the Jets this season, he was intercepted three times, held to one TD pass and 236 yards, and rushed for only 36 yards. 

💥 BUST: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle cornerbacks have been limiting or shutting down opposing WRs lately, holding Zay Flowers to one reception and shutting out Jahan Dotson as two examples. Cooper Kupp will still get his numbers against any secondary with Matthew Stafford back in action, but Los Angeles’ breakthrough rookie doesn’t have much upside against a defense that ranks third in FFPG allowed to WRs over the past four weeks. 

View more Week 11 fantasy football sleepers from Scott Engel here.

FANTASY FOOTBALL MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

Each week, Sam Wagman takes you through some of his favorite fantasy football matchups to exploit. Whether it’s a stat-based take or a pure gut feeling, Sam makes it easy for you to make tough lineup calls with his Matchups to Exploit article.

WR/CB: DeVonta Smith, PHI vs Jaylen Watson/Trent McDuffie, KC

Smith is due for a bounce-back performance, and this will be a good spot for it on Monday night. He’s had two touchdowns in his last two games, and he could add another big fantasy performance here against Watson and McDuffie, who will take turns on him.

I’m especially looking out for the 35% of routes that Smith runs in the slot, as Kansas City has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the slot among defenses this year and Philly will have to throw in this one.

Smith has been hit or miss compared to last year, but he turned things up a notch when Dallas Goedert missed time last season and I expect him to do the same now, starting with this matchup.

WR/CB: Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs Carlton Davis, TB

Aiyuk makes yet another appearance in this article simply because he gets to go up against one of the worst cover corners on the basis of production in the NFL this season.

Davis, despite missing three games this season, is allowing 0.63 fantasy points per pass route this season, which is the WORST mark among 188 qualified cornerbacks. That’s a tough ask for him to stick with one of the better route runners, and Tampa has been a pass-funnel defense lately, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

Get the winning fantasy advantage with more Week 11 Matchups To Exploit.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK

Los Angeles is currently fighting for an AFC Wild Card spot and this game comes right before a tough matchup vs the Ravens, so the Chargers desperately need a win here.

I'm betting on the significant quarterback advantage with Justin Herbert over Jordan Love in this spot.

It also helps that the Packers' run defense is abysmal, ranking 25th in Rush EPA, per RBSDM.com. Look for Austin Ekeler to have a big game in this one.

We’ll finish with another moneyline with the Browns. 

While Deshaun Watson is out for the season, the Browns have shown that they can win in the right matchup without him under center, including victories over the 49ers and Colts.

The Steelers continue to defy the odds by winning games despite being consistently out-gained in yardage virtually every week.

Look for Kenny Pickett to have a tough time against a Browns defense that ranks 1st in Pass EPA. The Browns are good enough to overcome the loss of Watson in this spot

Move on more Week 11 parlays with Frank Ammirante. 

IS THIS SUPER TEAM ALREADY COOKED?

Wow, a James Harden team isn’t living up to expectations? Who would have thought? A team of NBA superstars — Harden, Westbrook, Kawhi and PG — isn’t playing like a cohesive unit? We NEVER saw this coming. 🤣

Once Harden was traded, the Clippers’ odds of winning the NBA Championship jumped to +1300. Since then, the Clippers started off the season 0-5 and are now sitting at 3-7. Yikes.

There’s still plenty of time to turn it around, but for now, it’s looking like what we expected.

NEVER-TOO-EARLY 2024 MLB ODDS

A wise man once said: “It’s never too early for 2024 World Series predictions.”

OK, that wise man was my coworker, but it still counts. Below, you can see the 2024 World Series odds for the Top 10 teams in baseball. Um, is it just me, or does no one else remember the horrendous first-round exits by both the Braves and the Dodgers?

So, we don’t know how free agency will shake out this winter, but I gotta ride with the AL East. No, not the Yankees. Give me the Orioles at +1600 or the Rays to finally win a World Series at +1900.

But, don’t sleep on the Oakland — sorry, the Las Vegas — Athletics at +20000. 🤣

I know one thing, and that’s that whichever team signs Shohei Ohtani will jump up this list. I know he’s only hitting next season, but he immediately makes his new team a contender. Where do you think he’ll sign? Vote in our poll below.