Is This RB a Top-10 Guy?! 🔮🎯

THINGS WE LEARNED IN WEEK 4 🤔📚

The Broncos have the worst defense in the NFL

It’s clear to me now: When the Chicago Bears are able to put up points on your team with ease, even if they couldn’t close out the win, you have to ask the question internally: “Are we bad at defense?”

The Bears were able to move the ball at will. Justin Fields had only three incompletions heading into the final drive.

It’s clear that something is fundamentally wrong with the Broncos’ secondary, and we haven’t even gotten to the fact that Khalil Herbert ran all over the defensive line as well.

Something is wrong with the Eagles’ secondary

Sensing a trend here?

The Eagles have looked fine with half of their defensive unit. Jalen Carter is a beast, and he and Jordan Davis form one of the most terrifying tandems at defensive tackle in the NFL.

However, the secondary has been getting smoked, and we saw the latest example yesterday against the Commanders, with the unit allowing Sam Howell and Co. to move the ball seemingly at will all game.

Starting CBs Darius Slay and Josh Jobe scored the two lowest coverage grades on the team this week, according to PFF, with Slay particularly worrisome, posting a 39.9 grade. For context, that ranked third-worst in the NFL among CBs with 20 or more defensive snaps.

4 PLAYERS YOU NEED TO TARGET ON WAIVERS 🎯

Every week, our Scott Engel dives deep into the waiver wire to scour players that you should be picking up to get ahead of the rest of your leaguemates. Let’s take a look at this week’s top adds:

QB: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (55% rostered in Sleeper leagues)

This is the third consecutive week that I am highlighting Stroud in this space, and if you didn’t add him in the past two weeks, the FAAB bidding battles to land him will now get more competitive.

The stigmas of playing for the Texans and being a rookie QB caused a lot of fantasy players to take a wait-and-see approach with Stroud. After his second 300-yard game in the past three weeks — with two touchdown passes in each — Stroud has nothing left to prove as a waiver wire target.

C.J. Stroud FAAB Bid: 11% of your available budget.

RB: Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos (2%)

The undrafted rookie totaled 104 scrimmage yards and a TD on 10 touches in relief of an injured Javonte Williams (hip) in Week 4. Earlier in the regular season, reports had circulated that McLaughlin could figure into the RB mix for Denver.

It is uncertain how much time Williams will miss, but if he is out in Week 5, McLaughlin will be worthy of flex consideration. He reportedly impressed the Denver staff during the preseason enough to get the opportunity we saw in Week 4.

Jaleel McLaughlin FAAB Bid: 9% of your available budget, as McLaughlin might only be a short-term play.

WR: Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (53%)

The 2022 first-round pick will finally make his season debut this week. Last year, we saw brief flashes of the tremendous upside, with a 41-yard TD catch and a 40-yard run.

It may take at least a week or two for the big-play artist to start providing any semblance of consistency, but he will certainly add another dimension to a potent Detroit offense. Williams might be a fantasy football difference-maker in the second half of the schedule.

Jameson Williams FAAB Bid: 40% of your available budget, or more if your league often bids aggressively

TE: Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (34%)

We have been waiting a long time for the performance we received from Kmet in Week 4 when he caught seven passes for 85 yards and two TDs. Because the TE position is so thin — and Justin Fields will continue to throw often enough in efforts to improve — Kmet is capable of more quality outings.

Cole Kmet FAAB Bid: 14% of your available budget

Every Tuesday, we go through our favorite overreaction and underreaction because what fantasy football players don’t react rationally to every bit of news they hear and see?

Overreaction: Justin Fields is back to being a top-seven fantasy QB

Four touchdowns and over 300 passing yards this week. You’d have to go back to his final year at Ohio State, playing Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, to find a statline like that for Fields.

Even seeing that, I’m not sure that’s sustainable for Fields, and I doubt we’re going to see his rushing numbers go up either. Through four weeks, Fields is on track to finish with nearly 40 rushes less than last season, with the Bears’ coaches not calling designed runs for him.

Given all of this, we can’t depend depend on Fields to get back to the ceiling that we saw last season.

Underreaction: De’Von Achane is a top-10 fantasy running back ROS

Is this so wild?

In his last eight quarters of football, Achane has recorded 26 carries for 304 yards and two touchdowns on the ground while adding seven catches for 49 yards and two more touchdowns through the air.

That is some unbelievably efficient production. And there’s not really a reason to think it’ll go away.

Achane had 47% of the rushes and a 68% route share in Week 4, per Fantasy Life’s Utilization Report. Those are RB1 numbers. For context, Christian McCaffrey has averaged a 61% rush share and 74% route share this season.

Despite the presence of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson getting ready to return from IR, Achane should be the man to roster in this backfield that is predicated on speed.

THE HINDSIGHT REPORT 🔮🧾

We’re officially a quarter into the NFL season! Every Tuesday, Sam Wagman will use the powers of hindsight to look back on players we thought would be good for fantasy this season but aren’t, and vice versa.

Remember when we were in the throes of the offseason and said that Darren Waller would undisputedly be the New York Giants’ WR1 and TE1 all at the same time? I ‘memba.

Watching this Giants team has been difficult at times this season, but it really doesn’t get more annoying than watching all of the smaller receivers the Giants have and knowing that they have a 6-foot-6 tight end in Waller who can play wide receiver, but they aren’t using him. Waller has been targeted only 23 times this season, a number that ranks ninth among TEs but 55th overall.

Now, it’s not all his fault. The offensive line has been a turnstile and to be honest, Daniel Jones has looked mentally checked out at times.

But we have to wonder, how bad of a process pick was Waller? Time will tell, but it hasn’t looked good through the first quarter of the season.

Onto greener pastures, though. Let’s talk about a pick that we weren’t so high on but has worked out if you rolled the dice on them.

If you took a peek at our preseason fantasy football busts list, you would have seen a few TGD staff members point out James Conner as a candidate (Note: I wasn’t one of them). The argument made sense: without Kyler Murray for an indeterminable amount of time, the Cardinals were primed to tank, and they sold off assets prior to the season at a high rate.

Well, Conner evidently heard all of that and decided that he would go out and ball anyways. He ranks ninth in the league with an explosive run rate (15+ yards rush) of 8.1%, according to Fantasy Points Data.

Through four games, Conner ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards with 318, good for a 1,352 rushing yard pace. He also ranks as a top-15 RB for fantasy, and has had three top-20 fantasy weeks so far.

It’s clear that Conner will be a solid (if unspectacular) fantasy volume option moving forward, so if you need an assist in the volatile RB position this season, go out and acquire Conner.

Each Tuesday, Sam Wagman will take a peek at the week ahead’s betting spread and total lines on our partner FanDuel to determine which lines you should grab ahead of time.

Arizona +3 vs Cincinnati Bengals

The same Cincinnati Bengals that have averaged 12.5 points per game this season are three-point favorites… on the road?

That doesn’t make sense to me. For one, Joe Burrow clearly isn’t healthy, despite what the Bengals are saying. He also just lost Tee Higgins to a possible multiweek rib injury.

The Bengals got railroaded by a mediocre Titans team by Derrick Henry running the ball down their throats. What does this Cardinals team do well? Run the ball behind James Conner.

The Cardinals are sneaky, and they’re 3-1 ATS (and narrowly missed being 4-0). They’re a better team than the books are giving them credit for.

Texans +1 @ Atlanta Falcons

Again, here we have a prime example of a team the books are simply not giving enough credit to.

The Texans have quietly looked great in the last two weeks, winning convincingly over the Jaguars and the Steelers. C.J. Stroud looks like the epitome of a veteran NFL quarterback, with three straight games of multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions.

The Falcons, on the other hand, are floundering. Two straight multi-score losses and Desmond Ridder looks like he’s winging it every week. Bijan Robinson is the only source of offensive output on this team who’s reliable and the Texans have done a great job of bending, not breaking, when it comes to red zone rushing defense.

The Texans should not be dogs in this matchup. Give me them to win outright.

Giants @ Dolphins over 49.5

We've witnessed the Giants looking like utter disappointments on the gridiron in the past couple of weeks. That’s undoubtedly true, but it's important to consider that they are without their franchise left tackle, Andrew Thomas, as well as running back Saquon Barkley.

I’m not suggesting that either player fixes all of the Giants’ problems (they have many), but given the Dolphins' explosiveness, we might see them drive this game into the Over with the Giants also contributing.

For me, this is a classic case of two teams with vulnerable defenses, and at least one of them possessing a great offense. Many times, this is the recipe a game needs to surpass the total. Although 49.5 is a high number, three of the Dolphins’ four games have gone Over, and in the one game the Giants were competent in (the last game Barkley played in), they also went Over.

TRENDING SPORTS NEWS 📈📱

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