A Top QB is on Our Fantasy Football Naughty List

Ho, ho, ho! 🎁 We hope that your holiday shopping is wrapped up by now, but if not, there’s still time to forward this email to friends and give them the gift of an exclusive offer from FanDuel. OK, so it’s definitely not as personal as the purse I’ve been eyeing for months (hint, hint if my man is reading this) but imagine how happy they’ll be if they use it to hit a fat parlay.

It would definitely land me on the nice list. So, take advantage of the offer and then dive into this edition of Back Office Buzz! We’ve got a packed newsletter today; consider it our gift to you. — Olivia Witherite

IN TODAY'S NEWSLETTER

• THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREVIEW

• WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

• FOUR FEATURED ITEMS FOR THE SUNDAY SLATE

• WEEK 16 STARTS & SITS

• SLEEPERS & BUSTS

• FANTASY FOOTBALL MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

• PARLAY OF THE WEEK

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREVIEW

When we think of Rams vs Saints, it's hard not to flip back to possibly the most famous no-call on a penalty in recent history, the missed defensive pass interference on Saints' WR Tommy Lee-Lewis by former Rams' CB Nickell Robey-Coleman. That was all the way back in 2019, and the teams have played twice since then, splitting the two games.

The teams head west to SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles for this one, so let's break down the Rams first. The former Greatest Show on Turf has had a solid mid-season run, winning four of their last five (and it should have been 5/5 against the Ravens), with Matthew Stafford putting on some nice offensive performances.

The team is making its case for the NFC playoffs, out of the hunt for its own division but currently sitting seventh in the NFC race. Stafford has put the team on his back before, so it's not out of the question that he could do it again.

Looking at the Saints, they could go either way. They're currently tied with the Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South — but are on the wrong end of a tiebreaker — and have alternated poor play with mediocre play against bad teams lately. They're not a great team in my eyes, but could just be slumping.

I'm looking to the Rams here for my side bet. They're currently -3.5 on FanDuel, but there is serious blowout potential in this game. I wouldn't call the Saints a bad defense by any stretch, but they're worse than usual, and the Rams have been strong on offense lately.

I expect Cooper Kupp to have a strong game against struggling cornerback Alontae Taylor, who is one of the worst corners at covering the slot this season, and for Kyren Williams to have a good scrimmage day.

The Rams have much more to play for in this game, and you should back them at home. — Sam Wagman

Get deeper into the game with our Thursday Night Football predictions. 

WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

Frank Ammirante is a top-7 fantasy football ranker in the industry for the 2023 season. He placed in the Top 2 in the FantasyPros Accuracy rankings for Weeks 4 and 5, and he has finished in the Top 25 in seven of the past 11 weeks. Keep reading for some highlighted plays from Frank for Week 16; you can find all of his rankings here. 

Quarterbacks

• Justin Fields has had a wide range of outcomes this season, but his ceiling is high against the Cardinals. The Bears have a 24.5-point implied total, and we've seen Fields put up 20+ fantasy points in four starts this year. Look for a big game from Fields in this exploitable matchup.

Running Backs

• Chuba Hubbard continues to see bell-cow usage under the interim coaching staff. We've seen Hubbard get fed in the last three games, in which he's combined for 70 carries. This is a good matchup vs the Packers, who are tied for 22nd vs running backs.

Wide Receivers

• Tee Higgins caught 4-of-8 targets for 61 yards and two touchdowns last week. The Bengals will need to rely on him in Ja'Marr Chase's absence. This week, we could see Jake Browning pepper Higgins with targets against the Steelers.

Tight Ends

• We must consider David Njoku an elite option with Joe Flacco under center. The explosive tight end has combined for 16 catches, 195 yards, and three touchdowns in his last two games. This is another great matchup vs the Texans, who rank 24th vs tight ends.

FLEX

• Here's a sneaky FLEX for you in deeper leagues: Kenneth Gainwell. This is a run-heavy game script with the Eagles as 10-point favorites vs the Giants, who are more vulnerable on the ground. Seeing Gainwell find the end zone in Week 16 wouldn't shock me.

FOUR FEATURED ITEMS FOR THE SUNDAY SLATE

• Lock in the Over of 50.5 on FanDuel in the biggest matchup of the week between the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins. These are the two highest-scoring teams in the NFL, as Miami averages 31.5 points per game and Dallas averages 30.8.

• Denver needs to win to keep its playoff hopes alive in an obviously winnable matchup against New England. However, the spread of -6.5 may be too large. The Patriots might remain competitive for a good chunk of the game. Before its loss to Kansas City last week, New England had an average margin of defeat of four points in its previous four losses. 

• The battle of Florida features two teams trying to win their divisions as Tampa Bay hosts Jacksonville. Baker Mayfield is trying to will his team to the NFC South crown, with six passing TDs and a rushing score in the last two weeks. After losing to the Bengals, Browns, and Ravens, this is a better opportunity for the Jaguars to get back on a winning path, so I will take Jacksonville to cover the -1 spread and also on the moneyline at -102. 

• The Detroit Lions can clinch their first division title in 30 years with a win at Minnesota. The spread of -3.5 might be too small, as the Lions want to check off a big goal that is now in front of them against a Vikings team that is just not capable of pulling off the upset without their starting QB. The current spread is at -105, but I would consider alternate spreads, such as -6 at +131. — Scott Engel

WEEK 16 STARTS & SITS

Start/sit decisions don’t have to be tough! Michelle Magdziuk makes it easy for you with “Fire & Ice”, her industry-standard start/sits piece.

Start: Tucker Kraft, Packers (@ CAR)

With Luke Musgrave on IR, the other Packers rookie TE, Tucker Kraft, has played nearly every single offensive snap for the Packers over the last three weeks. Kraft had a career-high six targets in Week 13 and then a career-high four receptions for 64 yards in Week 14. 

Now, he gets a fantastic matchup against the Buccaneers, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the tight end position this season. 

Since Week 8, the Buccaneers have allowed Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Dalton Schultz, and Dalton Kincaid to each put up 15+ fantasy points against them. 

Sit: Terry McLaurin, Commanders (@ NYJ)

The Jets are allowing by far the fewest fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position this season — they are allowing nearly six fewer points per game to WRs than any other team. Insanity. 

It’s on this wavelength that you should absolutely be on with Terry McLaurin this week, who has been decidedly average most of the 2023 season. He popped off when Jacoby Brissett relieved Sam Howell last week, but the Commanders have noted that Howell will start this game.

Follow the breadcrumbs and sit McLaurin this week.

Fill out your Week 15 lineups with the full rundown of starts and sits. 

SLEEPERS & BUSTS

Every week on TheGameDay.com, Scott ‘The King” Engel provides his full rundown of fantasy football sleepers and busts. Scott is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Hall of Fame.

😴 SLEEPER: Joe Flacco, Browns @ Texans

Joe Flacco has demonstrated that he can be utilized as a desperation option for those still in QB survival mode in the fantasy postseason. The 38-year-old has passed for two-plus TDs in all three games he played with Cleveland, with 300-plus yards in two outings. 

Houston ranks 26th in passing yards allowed to QBs. Flacco should be able to provide a solid fantasy floor in Week 16, and you should also check where he places in our superflex rankings for Week 16.  

😴 SLEEPER: Adam Thielen, Panthers vs Packers

Adam Thielen was a pleasant fantasy football surprise earlier in the season, but he has progressively fallen off in production. The former Viking has not reached the nine-point mark in PPR points in three of his past four games. 

If you need a fill-in WR in Week 16, you should still consider Thielen for possible adequate output. He has the fourth-best WR/CB matchup grade on PFF for Week 16 against the Green Bay CBs, and the Packers rank 28th in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to WRs over the past four weeks.

💥 BUST: Lamar Jackson, Ravens @ 49ers

It is hard to bench Lamar Jackson, but this will be his biggest test against the most formidable opponent on the schedule, and there should not be expectations for an upside performance. Jackson’s lack of true standout punch from his supporting cast may be exposed this week. 

The 49ers rank fifth in FFPG allowed to QBs, and the Ravens rank 28th in pass blocking grade on Pro Football Focus for Week 16. The Niners defense will be ready to limit Jackson as much as possible as a scrambler, and he might not have much success as a passer. 

💥 BUST: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints

Puka Nacua is one of the most memorable late-round fantasy football draft picks of the 2023 season. It’s unlikely that he’ll be shut out this week, but Cooper Kupp has regained his best form as the top target for Matthew Stafford, and Nacua’s final stat line might look more like the five receptions for 50 yards of Week 15. 

The amazing Rams rookie might actually fall short of those totals against a Saints secondary that ranks third in FFPG allowed to WRs. Nacua has a WR/CB matchup grade of 46.0 for Week 14 on PFF against the New Orleans CB group. That mark is considered “average” and only slightly above the “below average” grading area.  

View more Week 16 fantasy football sleepers from Scott Engel here. 

FANTASY FOOTBALL MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

Each week, Sam Wagman takes you through some of his favorite fantasy football matchups to exploit. Whether it’s a stat-based take or a pure gut feeling, Sam makes it easy for you to make tough lineup calls with his Matchups to Exploit article.

WR/CB: Cooper Kupp, LAR vs Saints CBs

This will mostly fall to Alontae Taylor since Cooper Kupp aligns in the slot nearly 60% of the time this season, and Taylor is the nickel CB for New Orleans. Taylor has calmed things down a bit since earlier in the season but is still allowing 0.35 fantasy points per pass route on his coverage snaps, a below-average number.

I think Kupp will be a big part of the passing attack this week, coming off back-to-back big production games. The Saints will look to limit him, but Isaac Yiadom and Paulson Adebo could have their hands full with Puka Nacua aligning on the perimeter 70% of the time and drawing coverage looks.

This should open up the middle of the field for Kupp and provide plenty of soft looks.

WR/CB: Vikings WRs vs Lions CBs

We’ve been saying to start your WRs against the Lions for several weeks now, but do you really want to know just how bad the secondary has been for Detroit?

Since Week 11, the Lions’ Pass Defense DVOA is a crushing 26.8%, a number that ranks fourth-worst in the league, per Jared Smola. Compared to Weeks 1-10 for them, that’s a 30% downward change from their early -3.2% DVOA.

The Lions are struggling against nearly everyone, and that list could expand to include Nick Mullens this week. Justin Jefferson is obviously a must-start, but Jordan Addison has worked his way into the auto-WR2 conversation as well.

Get the winning fantasy advantage with more Week 16 Matchups To Exploit.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK

The longshot parlay opens up with the Steelers completing the sweep of their division rivals.

Pittsburgh is reeling right now, losing three straight games to the Cardinals, Patriots, and Colts, causing head coach Mike Tomlin to turn to Mason Rudolph over Mitch Trubisky.

This will be Rudolph's first start since November 14, 2021, so we can expect Pittsburgh to lean on their running game.

The good news is that the Bengals have struggled in defending the run, most recently getting gashed by Ty Chandler. We could see a big game for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.

Furthermore, Cincinnati will be playing without Ja'Marr Chase here. While Tee Higgins is a stud wideout in his own right, that's a major loss for Jake Browning and company.

In a divisional game, look for Pittsburgh to get back on track with an upset victory.

I'll finish off this parlay by taking the Colts to win their fifth game in their last six.

Indianapolis is a well-coached team led by Shane Steichen, who has the Colts playing well despite injuries to key players like Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, and now Michael Pittman Jr., whose status is up in the air for this one. 

On the other side, Arthur Smith continues to avoid using his best players, which has been detrimental to his team.

Reports indicate that there are some rumblings around the organization that Smith could be on the way out soon.

Would it shock you to see the Falcons quit on their coach just like the Chargers did with Staley? 

I can absolutely see this happening vs the Colts. Give me Indy due to its significant coaching advantage. 

Move on more Week 16 parlays with Frank Ammirante.