Week 3 TNF: Jets Should SOAR ✈️

Thursday Night Football features a second consecutive AFC East showdown, this time between the New England Patriots and New York Jets in Week 3.

Both teams are 1-1, with the Patriots as one of the biggest early surprises, upsetting the Bengals and taking the Seahawks to overtime.

While the Jets haven't played up to expectations just yet, this is still a stacked defense that should cause problems for Jacoby Brissett and company.

The Patriots have been pesky underdogs for each of their first two games, but they're going to have a tough time with an elite Jets defense in this one.

Look for Aaron Rodgers to finally get on track with Garrett Wilson as well. We just saw the Patriots have a tough time slowing down DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in their overtime loss vs the Seahawks.

Let’s give you a sneak peek of our best bets for this game:

Thursday Night Football Prop Bet

Jacoby Brissett: Under 29.5 Longest Completion (-115) at DraftKings

Jacoby Brissett has a 5.6 average depth of target (aDOT), which is second-lowest among starting quarterbacks. This means that most of his throws are closer to the line of scrimmage.

In fact, Brissett only has one 20+ yard completion in two games (35 yards to Hunter Henry).

This is a tough spot against a good Jets defense, especially with the Patriots' offensive line issues.

New England ranks 31st in pressure rate allowed, which has made it difficult to set up a big passing play downfield.

I expect more of the same vs the Jets here, making the Under 29.5 longest completion look like a strong play.

Find out more of my Week 3 TNF Picks below.

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📋 BACK OFFICE BUZZ: THE RUNDOWN 9/19/24

• Fantasy Football Rankings

• NFL Props

• CFB Predictions

👀 Fantasy Football Rankings

Ja’Marr Chase has gotten off to a slow start this season, combining for only 97 yards in two games.

But this is a spot for the Bengals’ star to go nuclear against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in the Commanders.

We’ve seen Washington get torched by Malik Nabers, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans so far this year.

This feels like a big game for Chase, even if Tee Higgins is ready to return.

Find out where the Bengals WR finds himself in my Fantasy Football Rankings, which were 12th-most accurate in Week 1 after finishing 6th overall for the 2023 season.

🎯 NFL Props

Deshaun Watson has failed to hit 203 passing yards in each of his first two games, but he's attempted 45 and 34 passes in those matchups.

I like Over 202.5 passing yards in this favorable spot.

According to Establish The Run, the Browns rank 5th in Pass Rate Over Expected, so it's clear that they're putting an emphasis on airing it out.

This is a great matchup against the Giants, who rank 28th in Pass EPA.

It's a good spot for Watson to have a much more efficient game. He's not going to average only 4.5 yards per attempt all year. Look for a much better output here.

Read more of my top Week 3 NFL Props below.

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 🏈 USC vs Michigan

No. 11 USC (2-0) will play its first conference game as a member of the Big Ten when it travels to Ann Arbor to take on No. 18 Michigan (2-1) on Saturday, Sept. 21.

Through two games, the Trojans have looked like College Football Playoff contenders, thanks in large part to a much-improved defense that has stepped up in wins over LSU and Utah State.

The Wolverines haven’t been nearly as inspiring in their national title defense, prompting coach Sherrone Moore into an early-season quarterback change, as Alex Orji will take over for struggling senior Davis Warren.

USC -5.5 (-112)

I don’t think the Trojans will roll the Wolverines like Texas did, but it’s pretty clear this Michigan team doesn’t have the talent it possessed last season.

USC has the much better quarterback in Miller Moss, who should be able to replicate some of the success that Quinn Ewers enjoyed in that Longhorns victory.

The Trojans should win by at least a touchdown as long as their defense doesn’t get carved up by the Michigan rushing attack.

 🏈 Tennessee vs Oklahoma

No. 15 Oklahoma (3-0) could face a tough introduction to the SEC when it opens up conference play in Norman against No. 6 Tennessee (3-0) this Saturday, Sept. 21, at 7:30 p.m. ET.

The Sooners are undefeated, but the results have been close and somewhat uninspiring. Meanwhile, the Volunteers, led by freshman QB Nico Iamaleava, have the nation's best offense (63.7 points per game) and have steamrolled each of their opponents.

Tennessee -7 (-115) @ Oklahoma

Tennessee enters Saturday's tilt with an average margin of victory of 59.3 points. Obviously, the Volunteers won't win by such a wide range against Oklahoma, but this 7-point spread feels a little trivial given the bulk of their work this season.

Yes, Tennessee's best win came against an overrated NC State team, but that's better than anything the Sooners have accomplished this year.