Week 4 TNF: Cowboys Bounce Back

Thursday Night Football features an NFC East showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants in Week 4.

Both teams are 1-2, with the Cowboys looking to bounce back from consecutive blowout losses vs the Saints and Ravens. The Giants just surprised us with a win in Cleveland.

The Cowboys came into the season with Super Bowl aspirations. After getting blown out by the Saints and Ravens, they're in a desperate spot here.

Dallas has gotten gashed on the ground by Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry in their last two games. I expect a better performance from this run defense against a Giants team that ranks 21st in Rush EPA.

Look for CeeDee Lamb to get going in this one as well. The last time Lamb faced the Giants, he put up 11 receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown.

While New York was able to beat the Browns, this still isn't a good team. I attribute that win to the Browns' poor pass protection along with Deshaun Watson's league-worst quarterback play.

Let’s give you a sneak peek of our best bets for this game:

CeeDee Lamb: Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

CeeDee Lamb burned this defense last year, putting up 151 yards in the last meeting.

We've seen Lamb put up 61, 90, and 67 yards so far this year, so he hasn't gotten going yet.

An interesting note here is that Lamb publicly expressed his disappointment in his performance vs the Ravens, saying that he showed poor attitude and body language.

I expect him to be all smiles against a defense that was picked apart by Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson in Week 1.

This is a lower number than usual for Lamb, who is often priced at 86.5 yards or higher.

Find out more of my Week 4 TNF Picks below.

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👀 Fantasy Football Rankings

Marvin Harrison Jr. is in an eruption spot at home vs the Commanders.

Not only does this game have the highest Over/Under on the slate, but Washington’s defense has gotten burned through the air.

We’ve seen Ja’Marr Chase and Malik Nabers each have huge games against the Commanders.

Now it’s Marvin Harrison Jr’s turn.

Find out where the Cardinals WR finds himself in my Fantasy Football Rankings, which were 12th-most accurate in Week 1 after finishing 6th overall for the 2023 season.

🎯 NFL Props

Houston Texans: Over 26.5 Points (-110)

The Texans haven't lived up to the hype on offense just yet, coming off a loss vs the Vikings where they were completely shut down.

Luckily, this is the perfect get-right spot at home vs the Jaguars, who look completely lost on defense right now.

We just saw Josh Allen and the Bills pour on 47 points against this defense, with the star quarterback throwing for 263 yards and four touchdowns.

Jacksonville currently ranks 30th in Pass EPA, which is bad news against C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell.

Look for Houston to put up 27+ points in this divisional matchup.

Read more of my top Week 4 NFL Props below.

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 🏈 Georgia vs Alabama

Whenever these two elite programs come together, you’re going to get a compelling football game.

That should be the case again on Saturday as Georgia tries to avenge its 27-24 defeat in last year’s SEC Championship Game, which kept the Bulldogs out of the College Football Playoff and sent the Tide instead.

In that game, Alabama QB Jalen Milroe outplayed his opposite number, Carson Beck, throwing for 192 yards and a pair of first-half touchdowns to help the Tide win their eighth game against the Bulldogs in nine tries.

That run could continue if Beck and the Georgia offense don’t get back on track after a dismal performance in a 13-12 victory at Kentucky last time out. However, that unit should employ some new wrinkles coming out of the bye, and crucially, the Bulldogs are getting some key playmakers back on defense.

Georgia -2 (-110)

Georgia has lost just two games since the start of the 2021 college football season. Both have come against Alabama. I don’t think Kirby Smart lets lightning strike thrice.

Despite some impressive-looking results, the Tide haven’t been flawless this season. They struggled against USF before running up the score late with four fourth-quarter touchdowns, and the offense has had its fair share of miscues with penalties and turnovers.

Georgia’s defense should be the best unit in this game, giving it the edge on Saturday. Back the Bulldogs to cover this short spread.

 🏈 Louisville vs Notre Dame

Notre Dame's ability to run the football may be the team's greatest asset. The Irish have averaged over 238 rushing yards per game through their first four contests, including a 362-yard performance in their win over Purdue.

RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have been efficient, logging 7.4 yards per carry, and QB Riley Leonard has also notched six touchdowns and 322 yards on 46 attempts (7.0 YPC). Where Leonard and the Irish have struggled, though, is through the air — he has just one passing touchdown all year.

Louisville's defense has been staunch in both regards, limiting opponents to 181.3 passing yards and 87.3 rushing (2.5 YPC) through its first three games. With that said, this will be the Cardinals' most difficult test thus far, and by a significant margin.

Louisville will also need to navigate a Notre Dame defense that has yet to give up more than 16 points in a game all season. The Irish are winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, and defensive backs Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts have been as dominant as expected.

If Notre Dame can successfully move the ball in more ways than one, it should win this game. This offense is most effective when Leonard is a threat both in and out of the pocket, and the Cardinals could have trouble keeping pace against such a disruptive defense.

Louisville +6 (-108) @ Notre Dame

Through four weeks of college football, only 15 teams remain perfect against the spread — and Louisville is one of them. The Cardinals are also covering by an average margin of +10.3 points per game, ranking in the upper class of all programs.

The biggest reason why I like Louisville to cover, though, has to do with Notre Dame's offense. This team can be far too one-dimensional at times, and if the Cardinals can shut the Irish down either through the air or on the ground, they could struggle to sustain drives.

I'm expecting a tight, low-scoring game, and that plays into Louisville's favor with this bet. Back the Cardinals to cover as 6-point underdogs