Week 5 TNF: Bucs over Falcons

Thursday Night Football features an NFC South showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons in Week 5.

The Bucs (3-1) are looking to continue to build their divisional lead, while the Falcons (2-2) will try to keep pace with Baker Mayfield and company.

The Falcons came into the season looking like a team with an improved offense, but that hasn't been the case so far, as they rank 21st in EPA per play.

Meanwhile, the Bucs rank 8th in the same category. The wrong team is favored in this game in my eyes.

Let's compare these two quarterbacks this season:

Baker Mayfield: 8th in EPA per play

Kirk Cousins: 19th in EPA per play

As you can see above, Mayfield has been the much better passer so far. It's clear that Cousins isn't back to regular form following the Achilles injury.

Tampa Bay has impressive wins over Washington, Detroit, and Philadelphia. Their one blemish is a letdown game vs the Broncos.

Atlanta has been able to squeak by New Orleans and Philadelphia, but they haven't been impressive. This offense looks out of sync.

Let’s give you a sneak peek of our best bets for this game:

Rachaad White: Over 60.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-115)

While rookie Bucky Irving has gotten a lot of hype recently, Rachaad White is still more likely to put up more total yards due to his ability to make an impact in the passing game.

We just saw White put up 84 total yards against the Eagles in Week 4, so 60.5 is an attainable bar.

Even though White struggled vs the Broncos and Lions, that was against a team that just shut down Breece Hall and another with one of the best run defenses in the NFL.

It's not like Bucky is now the lead back here, either. Last week, White still had 47% of the running back rush attempts along with a 58% snap share.

We've seen the Falcons allow big production to Saquon Barkley (116 total yards) and Alvin Kamara (119 total yards) this season.

Find out more of my Week 5 TNF Picks below.

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📋 BACK OFFICE BUZZ: THE RUNDOWN 9/26/24

• DraftKings UFC 307 Promo

• CFB Predictions

• MLB NLWS

• NHL Season Opener

💰 DraftKings UFC 307 Promo

When we last saw Alex Pereira at UFC 303, he knocked out Jiri Prochazka in the second round, in what was an impressive display of elite striking ability.

On Saturday, Oct. 5 at 10 p.m. ET, Pereira will go at it with Khalil Rountree Jr. in a light heavyweight title bout live from Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.

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Find out more information about the DraftKings UFC promo, along with my preferred strategy on how to attack this Pereira vs Rountree fight.

👀 Michigan vs Washington

The first Big Ten meeting between Michigan (4-1) and Washington (3-2) will take on additional meaning as the two programs square off Saturday at Husky Stadium for the first time since the 2024 CFP National Championship.

Running back Donovan Edwards sent the Wolverines on their way to their first national title since 1997 with two first-quarter touchdown runs, and the defense handled its business in a 34-13 victory.

Ahead of this weekend’s highly anticipated rematch, let’s examine the latest betting odds and dig into a sneak peek of my Michigan vs Washington prediction and best bets.

Washington ML (-142)

Many bettors may be put off by Washington’s 21-18 loss at Rutgers on Friday night, but if you dig deeper, you can see why HC Jedd Fisch was encouraged by the performance in his team’s first Big Ten road game.

Will Rogers threw for 306 yards and a pair of touchdowns, both of which went to Denzel Boston, as the Huskies outgained the Scarlet Knights 521-299. Unfortunately, kicker Grady Gross missed three field-goal attempts, and Washington turned the ball over on downs at the Rutgers two-yard line early in the second half.

That aggressive decision-making will help the Huskies win a game like this, as long as the kicking woes don’t pop up again. Given those concerns, I like the idea of taking the moneyline in a game with a low total that could easily be decided by three points.

Regardless, I’m backing Washington to get its revenge here.

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 🏈 Tennessee vs Arkansas

No. 4 Tennessee (4-0) will look to continue its dominant stretch to begin the season when it takes on Arkansas (3-2) this Saturday, Oct. 5, at 7:30 p.m. ET.

The Volunteers have flattened each of their opponents thus far and enter Week 6 of the college football season with the nation's No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense. On the other hand, the Razorbacks will be looking for their first win against a ranked opponent after falling to Texas A&M 21-17 last weekend.

How will this SEC showdown turn out?

Find out my best bets in the link below.

⚾ NLWC: Mets vs Brewers

The Mets and Brewers are set to go at it in Game 3 of the NLWS, with the winner set to meet the Phillies in the NLDS.

The biggest story in this game is Brewers’ phenom Jackson Chourio, who homered twice to help Milwaukee complete the comeback in Game 2.

This is a dynamic outfielder who has slashed .310/.363/.552 with 12 homers and 44 RBI in his last 63 games.

Can Chourio have another big game to help the Brewers avoid yet another first-round exit? Or will the Mets pull off the upset?

We’ve got you covered with props, parlays, and NRFI picks for this Mets vs Brewers showdown.

You will find links to each of those three pages when you click the button below.

🏒 NHL Season Opener

The 2024 NHL season begins on Friday afternoon when the New Jersey Devils take on the Buffalo Sabres at the O2 Arena in Prague.

This game will be the first of two meetings between the teams in Prague as part of the 2024 NHL Global Series, which will also see regular-season action in Finland in early November.

As we get set for hockey’s return, let’s examine the latest betting odds for this matchup and dig into my Devils vs Sabres prediction and best bets.

Read below to find out where to place your wagers in this one.