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Will the Seahawks Cover Tonight vs. the Cowboys?!
PLUS: Should you bench Kyler šŖš + 2024 MLB World Series odds ā¾ļø
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Welcome to another edition of Back Office Buzz. Keep scrolling for more onā¦
š° Thursday Night Football Bets
šŖ Fantasy Football Starts & Sits
š“ Fantasy Sleepers & Busts
ā¾ļø 2024 World Series Odds
š¤ Our Best Sportsbook Offers & Much More!
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREVIEW
The Dallas Cowboys have won five of their past six games overall, and they have been a dominant home team this season. As noted by the Associated Press, Dallas, which has won 13 consecutive home games, is the first team in NFL history to win its first five home games by 20-plus points.
The Seattle Seahawks have lost their last two games to fall to 6-5 and are now in danger of losing their grip on an NFC Wild Card berth. After getting trampled by the San Francisco 49ers last week, Seattle continues through a rough stretch of schedule that includes another matchup with the Niners and one with the Eagles after facing Dallas.
So far this season, the Cowboys have yet to beat a team with a winning record, so a victory here can add some more credibility to their push for a top spot in the NFC. Dallas has the third-best odds to win the NFC, at +550 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
To have a chance in this game, the Seahawks need to stir up a struggling offense. Seattle has not scored more than 16 points in three of its past four games, and QB Geno Smith has not thrown more than one TD pass in three of his last four.
Dallas leads the NFL in scoring at 31.5 points per game, having surpassed the Miami Dolphins as the top team in that regard. Dak Prescott leads the league with four games with 300-plus yards passing and four TDs.
Seattleās secondary, however, has been the strength of its defense, led by Defensive Rookie of The Year candidate Devon Witherspoon and outside CB Tre Brown. Jamal Adams has also played well when healthy. This could be a good spot for Tony Pollard, who has rushed for TDs in two consecutive games.
Seattle has allowed 12 rushing TDs to RBs, tied for second-most in the NFL.
Dallas should win this game, but the spread is too large. Seattle will come in determined to claw for a win after getting blown out last week, and the Seahawks are still a better team than most of the opponents the Cowboys have faced in their lopsided wins. Seattle is not a top NFC contender, but is still capable of giving Dallas a good fight. - Scott Engel
Get deeper into the game with our Thursday Night Football predictions.
WEEK 13 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS
Frank Ammirante is a top-four fantasy football ranker in the industry for the 2023 season. He placed in the Top 2 in the FantasyPros Accuracy rankings for Weeks 4 and 5, and he has finished in the Top 25 in seven of the past nine weeks. Here are some highlighted plays from Frank for Week 13, and you can find all of his rankings here.
QB Rankings Tips
Sam Howell has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in eight of his last nine games. The Commanders project to play from behind against the Dolphins, so we could see a pass-heavy approach, which is great news for Howell's upside.
RB Rankings Tips
D'Andre Swift has now finished as RB25 or worse in three of his last five games. This is a tough matchup against the 49ers, who rank fourth against running backs this season. More on Swift in our Busts section below.
WR Rankings Tips
Rashee Rice came alive against the Raiders, catching 8-of-10 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown. We saw a season-high 68% route participation from Rice in that game, so perhaps the Chiefs are finally emphasizing the rookie as their top wideout.
TE Rankings Tips
This could be a spike week for Hunter Henry against his old team, the Chargers, who allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. It wouldn't shock me to see Henry put up 50-plus yards and a touchdown.
Flex Rankings Tips
Look out for Demario Douglas against the Chargers, who rank 30th against receivers this season. They're especially vulnerable in the slot, where Douglas tends to line up. We've seen the rookie put up 32 targets in his last four games, so this is a great opportunity, assuming he's good to go after entering concussion protocol.
FOUR FEATURED ITEMS FOR THE SUNDAY SLATE
In a game that didnāt seem to have much appeal in the preseason, the streaking Broncos look for a sixth consecutive win over the surprising Texans. I believe Russell Wilson will have to open up the passing game more to keep up with C.J. Stroud, so I will be going with the Over of 47.5,
Green Bay has pushed its way into the NFC playoff picture, and Kansas City woke up after falling behind early to the Raiders last week. Jordan Love may struggle against the Chiefsā defense, but Kansas Cityās offense has been inconsistent, so I am comfortable with taking the Under, as the projected total is 42.
The Rams are another team that is trying to jostle for an NFC Wild Card berth. Matthew Stafford led two game-winning drives in Week 11 and then threw four TD passes last week, so he will make the timely plays as the Browns defense spends too much time on the field. Take Los Angeles over Cleveland at -3.5.
In the must-see game of the week, the 49ers and Eagles appear to be evenly matched. But I have to like Philadelphia at an appealing +130 on the moneyline at home. - Scott Engel
WEEK 13 STARTS & SITS
Start/sit decisions donāt have to be tough! Michelle Magdziuk makes it easy for you with āFire & Iceā, her industry-standard start/sits piece.
Start āEm: Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts (at TEN)
In games in which Zack Moss has had just 12 or more touches, he has averaged 18 fantasy points per game. In games in which he had 20+ touches, he averaged nearly 26 fantasy points per game!
With Jonathan Taylor out this week with a thumb injury, Moss will be back to dominating touches in the Colts backfield. In his matchup earlier in the season against the Titans, Moss had a career-high 195 yards and scored twice in that game. He is an absolute must-start in Week 13.
Sit āEm: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (at JAX)
Joe Mixon has been highly inconsistent this season (as he has been his entire career). He has finished as the RB20 or worse in seven of 11 games weeks played this season and it only got worse in Week 12 without Joe Burrow under center. Mixon had zero room to run in Week 12 against the Steelers because Jake Browning is not going to put fear into any defense.
Now, he has to face the Jaguars, who have allowed just 3.6 yards per carry and two total rushing touchdowns to RBs this season. No, thank you!
Fill out your Week 13 lineups with the full rundown of starts and sits.
SLEEPERS & BUSTS
Every week on TheGameDay.com, Scott āThe Kingā Engel provides his full rundown of fantasy football sleepers and busts. Scott is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Associationās Hall of Fame.
š“ SLEEPER: Gardner Minshew, Colts @ Titans
Gardner Minshew is erratic and often unreliable, but he has a good matchup and the Colts are making an AFC playoff push. If you have Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson on a bye, consider Minshew as a streamer.
The Colts lost Jonathan Taylor to a thumb injury and might have to rely more on the passing game. The Titans rank 22nd in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to QBs over the past four weeks, and Indianapolis has the third-best pass-blocking advantage rating on Pro Football Focus for Week 13.
This season, Minshew has passed for more than one TD just twice, but he can provide decent fantasy football totals as a fill-in starter this week.
š“ SLEEPER: Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots @ Chargers
If you need a deeper lineup plugger at RB, consider Ezekiel Elliott, as the Patriots must use their RBs to play ball control against the Chargers and will want to attack a defense that ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed to RBs over the past four weeks.
Elliott is capable of posting decent yardage totals on some limited touches, with some potential to add a TD run.
š„ BUST: DāAndre Swift, Eagles vs 49ers
In his last two games, DāAndre Swift has averaged 5.7 and 6.3 yards per carry, respectively, but he will have to work very hard for his yardage in Week 13. It is difficult to bench Swift in a week when six NFL teams are on a bye, but expectations have to be lowered.
San Francisco ranks second in rushing yards allowed to RBs. The best way to attack the 49ers defense is on the back end, so the WRs will be the prime playmakers for the Eagles.
š„ BUST: Kyler Murray, Cardinals @ Steelers
The Pittsburgh offense rolled up 420-plus yards of offense last week and will likely race out to a lead against the Cardinalsā 26th-ranked defense. Kyler Murray will struggle to play catch-up and will face heavy pressure from an aggressive Pittsburgh pass rush.
Arizona ranks 21st out of 26 teams in pass blocking advantage rating on Pro Football Focus for Week 13. Murray is always a threat to run for a TD, but the yardage has not been there, with 83 yards in his three games played, and he only has two TD passes.
View more Week 13 fantasy football sleepers from Scott Engel here.
FANTASY FOOTBALL MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT
Each week, Sam Wagman takes you through some of his favorite fantasy football matchups to exploit. Whether itās a stat-based take or a pure gut feeling, Sam makes it easy for you to make tough lineup calls with his Matchups to Exploit article. Frank Ammirante streams in for him in Week 13.
WR/CB: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs Saints CBs
Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 99.3 receiving yards per game and we can bet on that continuing against the Saints this week. New Orleans is playing without top cornerback Marshon Lattimore. This was a problem against the Falcons last week, when Drake London put up 91 yards. On top of that, St. Brown will be primarily matched up with Alontae Taylor (54.0 PFF Coverage Grade) in the slot, so look for the Sun God to have a big game.
Brown is priced at $8,600 this week on FanDuel, which is fourth at WR.
WR/CB: Diontae Johnson (PIT) vs Cardinals CBs
While Diontae Johnson is coming off three duds in a row, this looks like a good spot for the Steelersā top wideout to get back on track. We should see Johnson primarily matched up with Starling Thomas V, who has struggled with a 56.4 Coverage Grade, per PFF. Weāve seen the Cardinals give up big games to opposing wideouts this season, such as JaāMarr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk. We could see something similar from Diontae in this spot.
Get the winning fantasy advantage with more Week 13 Matchups To Exploit.
PARLAY OF THE WEEK
l start off this parlay with the Cardinals (2-10), who are better than their current record with Kyler Murray under center.
Yes, they just got blown out by the Rams, but Sean McVay seems to have Arizona's number. Prior to that game, the Cards had a close loss vs the Texans and a win over the Falcons.
While the Steelers looked better on offense following the firing of coordinator Matt Canada, this is still a team that has a -23 point differential.
Pittsburgh is clearly not as good as their 7-4 record, so I'll take a shot on the Cards to pull off the upset.
I'll conclude the parlay with the Panthers to get their second win of the season.
We've seen teams respond positively to mid-season head coach firings, namely in Vegas, where the Raiders have played well since letting go of Josh McDaniels.
It wouldn't surprise me to see the same in Carolina, who takes on a Bucs team that has lost six of their last seven.
Perhaps now that Frank Reich is gone, the Panthers will cater their scheme towards Bryce Young's strengths.
I'd bet that we see Young's best game as a pro against a vulnerable Bucs' secondary that has been shredded on a weekly basis. - Frank Ammirante
Move on more Week 1v1 parlays with Frank Ammirante.
2024 WORLD SERIES ODDS
Can you guess the team with the best odds to win the World Series in 2024?
The current World Series champions? Nope. The Baltimore Orioles? Sadly, for me, nope. The Mets? LMAO, jk, jk.
Did you lock in your guess? Now, take a look at The Hot Corner to see the top odds for the 2024 World Series. (Be sure to give them a follow for MLB content, news, and trivia!)
@thehotcornershow š§ What stood out MOST about the current @FanDuel 2024 World Series odds? #thegameday #thegamedaymlb #thehotcornershow #atlbravesā¾ļø #atlbra... See more
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