Win Your Fantasy League: Throw All Your Budget at This TE!

Today started like every other work day. I picked up a coffee, headed into the office, and sat down next to my coworker who was absolutely freaking out about his fantasy football trade deadline.

I did what every good coworker would do: suggest that he check out Back Office Buzz took a video of him freaking out for my IG Stories. After that, I told him to check out the newsletter, of course.

But, seriously, if you want to make a late-season push and lock down a W, be sure to dive into this email. 👇

PLAYERS YOU NEED TO TARGET ON WAIVERS

Every week, our Scott Engel dives deep into the waiver wire to scour players that you should be picking up to get ahead of the rest of your leaguemates. Let’s take a look at this week’s top adds.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (48% rostered in sleeper leagues)

Pat Freiermuth was a proven fantasy TE heading into this season. He caught only one pass in his return in Week 11, and expectations were low in a sputtering Pittsburgh offense. 

An offensive coordinator change, though, led to a huge outing for Freiermuth on Sunday, as he caught nine of 11 targets for 120 yards. He will be the hottest pickup of the week as an established name with a renewed positive outlook at the thinnest position in fantasy football. 

Pat Freiermuth Free Agent Budget Bid: 55% of your available budget, or possibly more, based on your knowledge of how aggressive bidding can be in a specific league. My recommendations are a loose guideline and minimum.

Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers (52%)

Many fantasy players have obviously dropped Miles Sanders, who has been a major disappointment after being drafted as a No. 2 fantasy RB. Yet, with a coaching change in Carolina, Sanders might re-emerge as a respectable option. 

The ex-Eagle carried 15 times in Week 12, and he was a significant offseason acquisition for the Panthers. Carolina needs to establish a decent ground game and ease pressure on its rookie QB, and Sanders can still function in such a role, even if he continues to share some work with Chuba Hubbard. 

Sanders is versatile and can potentially still be a viable fantasy contributor in an offense that will feature some changes. Add him for possible re-emergence in the weeks ahead

Miles Sanders FAAB Bid: 8% of your available budget

Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants (11%)

I had been holding onto Jalin Hyatt for many weeks in several leagues because I believed he would eventually show himself to be the one true playmaking threat among the Giants’ WRs. Ultimately, I had to cut him in some yearly leagues because of roster depth needs, yet now I may chase Hyatt again and list him among my fantasy football sleeper picks.

Before the NFL Draft, the rookie drew some scouting comparisons to former Eagles big-play man DeSean Jackson. Hyatt had his best game yet in Week 12, catching five passes for 109 yards, and he could come through with a few more spike outings the rest of the way.  

Jalin Hyatt FAAB Bid: 9% of your available budget

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (46%)

After guiding two critical drives in a win over Seattle in Week 11, Matthew Stafford tossed four TD passes against Arizona on Sunday. None were to his wide receivers, which was an impressive feat, too. 

Stafford has matchups against the Browns and Ravens next, but he is a good option to have as a streamer or backup option for the fantasy football playoff push. He will naturally be picked up in many leagues after his prolific outing on Sunday. 

Matthew Stafford FAAB Bid: 9% of your available budget

OVERREACTIONS & UNDERREACTIONS

Every Tuesday, we go through our favorite overreaction and underreaction because what fantasy football players don’t react rationally to every bit of news they hear and see?!

Overreaction: Zay Flowers is ready to take off without Mark Andrews

Zay Flowers scored two touchdowns in the Ravens’ 20-10 victory over the Chargers. This was Mark Andrews’ first missed game since Week 1, in which Flowers had nine catches for 78 yards.

In fact, two of Flowers’ best games have come with Andrews out of the lineup, leaving fantasy players excited about the rookie’s outlook going forward.

However, I’m here to pour some cold water on those expectations.

For one, Flowers only had 25 receiving yards and wasn’t exactly having a good fantasy game until his 37-yard touchdown run on the last play of the game.

Secondly, the Ravens continue to pass at a low rate and their defense is elite, allowing them to run the football to protect the lead.

We’re not seeing Baltimore get into many shootouts this season. While Flowers is certainly an upside WR3 for the rest of the year, I wouldn’t get overly excited about him in fantasy due to his team context.

Underreaction: Travis Etienne is struggling right now

Travis Etienne has rushed 99 times for 330 yards (3.33 yards per carry) in his last six games.

Three of those matchups resulted in sub-3.5 YPC while each of them was below 4.0 YPC.

It’s clear that Jacksonville’s run-blocking has been abysmal right now, which is making it difficult for Etienne to find room on the ground. 

While the dynamic back continues to put up solid production in the passing game, it’s clear that we need to adjust expectations due to the rushing inefficiency.

What was once a clear-cut top-three fantasy running back needs to be bumped down in the ranks moving forward.

THE HINDSIGHT REPORT 🔮📃

We’re now in the home stretch of the NFL season! Every Tuesday, Frank Ammirante will use the powers of hindsight to look back on players we thought would be good for fantasy this season but aren’t, and vice versa.

It’s time to discuss Lamar Jackson, who is having a good season in real life but has fallen short of expectations in fantasy football.

The Ravens’ star quarterback has put up 15 fantasy points or fewer in four of his last five games. 

That’s simply not going to cut it for a player who was drafted as a top-five quarterback.

When you consider the strong production from players available later in the draft (Dak Prescott) or first-year starters picked up off waivers (C.J. Stroud and Sam Howell), Lamar’s play has really hurt fantasy teams. 

In one of my leagues, I’ve left points on the board in two separate weeks because I went with Lamar over Stroud.

I get it, it’s tough to bench Jackson due to his rushing upside, but it’s time that we come together as a group and make the move if you have a stud backup. Jackson looks more like a mid-range option rather than the set-it-and-forget-it type that we expected.

Simply put, Baltimore’s defense is too good and the offense is too run-heavy for Lamar to meet expectations. 

OK, BET 💰

Each Tuesday, Frank Ammirante will take a peek at the week ahead’s betting spread and total lines on our partner FanDuel to determine which lines you should grab ahead of time.

Carolina Panthers +6 (-110) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Carolina Panthers (1-10) have been atrocious this season, but there’s an important betting angle to consider with this matchup.

Carolina fired Frank Reich on Monday, pulling the plug after only 11 games. 

We’ve often seen teams respond to a firing – just look at the Raiders when they let go of Josh McDaniels and won two games in a row.

I’d bet that we’ll see the same happen with the Panthers.

It also helps that this is a divisional game, which means that it could be closer than expected. 

It’s not like the Bucs have played well, either. Tampa Bay is currently in a 1-6 stretch that has dropped their overall record to 4-7. 

It wouldn’t shock me to see the Panthers win this one outright. 

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Under 42.5 (-110)

The Tennessee Titans tend to play in low-scoring games. In fact, eight of their 11 games have gone Under 42.5 points this season.

In their first matchup vs the Indianapolis Colts, the game ended 23-16, so it stayed Under this number.

We tend to see the second divisional game be lower scoring than the first, so I’d recommend locking this number right away.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see it move down to 41 or lower by game time.

While the Colts play at a fast pace, they’re also run-heavy, which bodes well for this total.

Arizona Cardinals +5.5 (-110) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Arizona Cardinals are now 2-10, coming off a blowout home loss to the Rams.

But prior to that, they played in two competitive games since Kyler Murray came back, knocking off the Falcons and losing to the Texans by only five.

The Steelers are now 7-4, but they continue to win by narrow margins. 

In fact, four of those victories are by five points or fewer. All seven of those wins are by seven or less.

In other words, even if we lose this bet, it won’t be by much because Pittsburgh has proven themselves to be unable to blow out their opponents.

It wouldn’t shock me to see Kyler lead the Cardinals to an upset win here, making Arizona look like live dogs in this spot. 

NBA MVP ODDS

Does SGA actually have the chance to be the 2023-24 NBA MVP? You betcha. Right now, FanDuel has his odds at +1300. 

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