The Tony Pollard Experience 😔 & We're Betting Against the 49ers 🐆

We covered several key talking points in Thursday’s newsletter, nailing our TNF prop with Kenny Pickett going Under 217.5 passing yards and highlighting Dalton Kincaid as a great play vs the Bengals.

We’ve got a jam-packed Tuesday newsletter for you, including an early look at betting lines along with overreactions and underreactions from Week 9.

Before we get started, if this newsletter has helped you win a bet or take down someone in fantasy, be sure to share Back Office Buzz with a friend! Forward this newsletter or consider sharing the signup link on social.

All right, let’s ride ⤵️

4 PLAYERS YOU NEED TO TARGET ON WAIVERS

Every week, our Scott Engel dives deep into the waiver wire to scour players that you should be picking up to get ahead of the rest of your league mates. Let’s take a look at this week’s top adds.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (rostered in 42% of sleeper leagues)

Wilson is less mobile and dynamic than he was in his best years in Seattle, but he has performed respectably this season and still throws one of the best deep balls in the league. 

In Week 8 before the bye, Wilson tossed three TD passes against the formidable Kansas City Chiefs defense. Denver has won two consecutive games, and if the defense continues to put its offense in advantageous positions, Wilson can still convert and deliver some quality fantasy returns. 

QB injuries are forcing fantasy players to look for decent plug-ins and streamers, and Wilson can fit the bill. He does have 16 TD passes and four interceptions after eight games.  

Russell Wilson Budget Bid: 8% of your available budget

Leonard Fournette, Buffalo Bills (34%)

Fournette was not active in Week 9, but it was very apparent on Sunday night at Cincinnati that he is going to be ticketed for a significant role in the Bills offense very soon. 

Buffalo RBs only ran the ball eight times against the Bengals. Fournette will take over the reps for Latavius Murray and function as the quality goal-line and inside runner that the offense was missing. 

I prefer Fournette over Keaton Mitchell for longer-term fantasy football impact, but reactionary types will put higher bids on the Ravens rookie. Meanwhile, you should prioritize “Lombardi Lenny” even though he will cost less via free agency. 

Leonard Fournette FAAB Bid: 13% of your available budget

Demario Douglas, New England Patriots (44%)

The speedy rookie has caught five passes in each of his last two games. Douglas has totaled 20 targets in his last three. 

With Kendrick Bourne (knee) out for the season, Douglas can provide an adequate PPR floor and may have occasional upside going forward. 

Demario Douglas FAAB Bid: 10% of your available budget

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10%)

The second-year TE caught six of nine targets for 70 yards and two TDs in Week 9. He has been targeted six-plus times in each of his past three games, and Otton is a rising fantasy target at TE.   

Cade Otton FAAB Bid: 18% of your available budget

Best Cheap WW Bids for Week 10     

• Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks (52%): Pete Carroll has already indicated that establishing more of a consistent run game will help the Seahawks bounce back from a big loss at Baltimore. Charbonnet should emerge as a good fantasy depth RB in the weeks ahead. 

• Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Detroit Lions (9%): After being traded from Cleveland to Detroit, People-Jones is a sleeper candidate who can operate as the needed No. 2 WR in the Lions’ passing game. Add him now as a stash to see if he emerges with Detroit over the next few games. 

OVERREACTIONS & UNDERREACTIONS

Every Tuesday, we go through our favorite overreaction and underreaction because what fantasy football players don’t react rationally to every bit of news they hear and see?!

Overreaction: C.J. Stroud is an elite fantasy quarterback 

C.J. Stroud had a massive game against the Bucs, throwing for 470 yards and five touchdowns, demonstrating his high weekly ceiling.

But let’s not jump the gun here and call him an elite fantasy quarterback for the rest of the season, but rather a mid-range QB1. 

For one, prior to this game, Stroud had been averaging only 14.1 fantasy points per game in his previous three, which ranked as QB25 during that stretch.

This demonstrates how quarterbacks who don’t run (Stroud averages 9.8 rushing yards per game) can have a lower weekly floor.

Secondly, this was a great matchup against a pass-funnel Bucs defense. Even without including Stroud’s 470 passing yards, Tampa had been allowing 269.9 passing yards per game.

Now, don’t get me wrong – I still view Stroud as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback moving forward, just more in the 8-10 range.

I just don’t view him above the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa. 

Underreaction: We’ve hit rock bottom on Tony Pollard’s fantasy value

After another poor fantasy performance from Tony Pollard against the Eagles, the Cowboys back is now averaging 11.6 points per game (RB20).

That’s not the type of production that you expected from your early second-round (sometimes last first-round) fantasy pick.

There are a number of possible reasons for Pollard’s disappointing performance. 

The Cowboys have played in a couple of blowout game scripts where Pollard wasn’t needed.

Perhaps, Pollard has lost some of his explosive burst since he’s coming back from a fractured left fibula suffered in the NFC Divisional Game vs the 49ers. 

Maybe head coach Mike McCarthy isn’t getting his dynamic back into space as much as he should.

Whatever the case may be, it’s time to value Pollard as a mid-range RB2 until he shows us more. 

THE HINDSIGHT REPORT

We’re officially into the second half of the NFL season! Every Tuesday, The Game Day’s staff writers will use the powers of hindsight to look back on players we thought would be good for fantasy this season but aren’t, and vice versa.

It’s time to have a difficult discussion about Chris Olave.

Coming into the season, we all had high hopes for the Saints’ second-year wideout following a promising rookie year.

But it’s clear that we need to adjust our expectations moving forward.

What’s so appealing about Olave is that he’s a receiver who can earn targets at a high rate as a deep threat.

This is demonstrated by his 28% target share and 42% air yard share, which has resulted in 15.8 expected fantasy points per game (WR7) per PFF.

But Olave has had trouble establishing a rapport with quarterback Derek Carr, averaging only 10.4 fantasy points per game (WR31).

For this reason, we need to stop thinking of Olave as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2. Until we see more, Olave must be viewed as a WR20-25 type. 

OK, BET 💰

Each Tuesday, Sam Wagman will take a peek at the week ahead’s betting spread and total lines on our partner DraftKings to determine which lines you should grab ahead of time.

San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars +3

This is a scenario in which it makes sense to take the team at home that’s getting three points, no matter who they’re facing.

Coming off of the bye, SF should be getting back a healthy Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel, who will be huge presences in an offense that will have to stop a strong Jaguars’ pressure unit. The Jaguars are also coming off of a bye and now get to stay home against a 49ers team that is traveling cross-country for this matchup.

The Jaguars have found their groove, and it’s coming at the right time, with all four AFC North teams in playoff contention, along with at least three teams in the East and West divisions. That means that Jacksonville has to stay on its toes, and I think the Jags will here.

The 49ers rank first in passing DVOA, per FTN Fantasy, but part of Brock Purdy’s charm is downfield passing, and that’s a spot at which the Jaguars have looked solid this year. They have five interceptions with only one touchdown pass allowed on pass plays of 20+ yards and have allowed the seventh-lowest completion rate on those passes.

Between Christian Kirk balling out against man coverage (the 49ers play league-average man rates but struggle against it) and Travis Etienne finding his stride lately, I expect the Jaguars to battle and have a chance to win.

Seattle Seahawks -6 vs Washington Commanders

This feels like an overreaction line. It had sat at -6.5 for months and dropped to 6 after the blowout of Seattle by Baltimore, but I view that game as way less of a bad look from Seattle than it was a great game from the Ravens.

Seattle has played two of the best defenses in the NFL in the last two weeks and split the games. The Commanders don’t come close to qualifying as a good defense, considering they’ve given up the most explosive passing plays this season and now face a Seahawks offense that ranks ninth in passing DVOA.

Seattle is angry and they have everything to prove in a near must-win game, due to the fact that they’re currently tied (and losing the tiebreaker) atop the NFC West with the 49ers. 

BUY LOW, SELL HIGH

BUY Ja’Marr Chase

Ja’Marr Chase has been disappointing this season, averaging only 15.8 fantasy points per game (WR8) despite being drafted in the top three of fantasy drafts.

The Bengals’ superstar wideout is coming off a dud against the Bills in which he caught 4-of-8 targets for 41 yards.

This makes it an ideal time to try to trade for Chase.

If we check Chase’s expected fantasy points per game, he still ranks as overall WR1. It’s only a matter of time before we see another spike week, especially with Joe Burrow back on track.

I would see if you can capitalize on CeeDee Lamb’s recent hot stretch and offer the Cowboys’ wideout for Chase.

SELL Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers has exceeded expectations by averaging 12.7 fantasy points per game (WR17) this season, but it’s time to move on.

The Raiders are going to be much more of a run-heavy offense under interim coach Antonio Pierce and rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell.

I expect Hunter Renfrow to get more involved in the offense, as he was clearly held back by Josh McDaniels.

Then of course you have Davante Adams, who always commands a significant portion of the target share.

For that reason, I’d try to sell high on Meyers. Perhaps you can swing a trade for George Pickens, who is coming off a dud on Thursday Night Football and has struggled in Diontae Johnson’s return.

HAVE YOU TRIED DAILY FANTASY? 👇