Is Will Levis HIM?!

In last Thursday’s newsletter, we touched on quite a few things. Some we got right, some we got wrong. (Thanks for blowing the cover, Bills. 🤢)

But none was funnier than how hilariously on point we were about the Giants being awful. You know I had to throw that in here. 🤣

If you sat through all 64 minutes of garbage time, we’ve got a much better way for you to spend your precious minutes. Let’s dive into this week’s newsletter to help you win your week and maybe even some money ⤵️

4 PLAYERS YOU NEED TO TARGET ON WAIVERS

Every week, our Scott Engel dives deep into the waiver wire to scour players that you should be picking up to get ahead of the rest of your leaguemates. Let’s take a look at this week’s top adds.

QB: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (rostered in 7% of sleeper leagues)

We saw the rookie make a sparkling NFL debut, with four TD passes and 19 completions on 29 attempts for 238 yards. Levis instantly took advantage of his best weapon, as DeAndre Hopkins caught three of the scoring passes.

Levis has already been named the starter for the Week 9 Thursday night game against the Steelers. He could endure some ups and downs in the weeks ahead as opponents get more film on him, but he pumped life into a Tennessee passing game that has been dormant for so long.

The Titans would appear to be making a big mistake by going back to Ryan Tannehill any time soon unless Levis falters badly in follow-up outings. If you lost Kirk Cousins or Anthony Richardson, Levis has to be your top target off the waiver wire in Week 9.

Will Levis Free Agent Budget Bid: 24% of your available budget. You may have to bid more than twice that much if Levis is available in your superflex league.

RB: Emari Demercado, Arizona Cardinals (45%)

The undrafted free agent was added in 25 percent of leagues last week, yet it is apparent that more fantasy leaguers needed to be convinced that he was going to be utilized as a true featured back. The confirmation of his role came in Week 8 when Demercado carried a season-high 20 times for 78 yards.

Demercado does not have much apparent upside, yet the volume is there and he can be a plug-in for decent production while James Conner (knee) is out.

Emari Demercado FAAB Bid: 10% of your available budget

WR: Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders (54%)

Considered a popular breakthrough player in the preseason, many fantasy players cut their roster ties with Dotson in recent weeks. Now, he is back on the radar after catching eight of 10 targets for 108 yards and a TD against the Eagles.

Dotson has been targeted 18 times in the past two games, and while consistency still may be a concern, there is no denying that he is still a promising pickup.

Jahan Dotson FAAB Bid: 13% of your available budget

TE: Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals (28%)

The second-year TE busted out to catch 10 of 14 targets for 95 yards and a TD in Week 8 and will be one of the most sought-after adds of the week. Zach Ertz may be relegated to a lesser role when he eventually returns from a quadriceps injury, and McBride is a must-add if you are one of the many fantasy players who has been struggling to find a quality starter at the position.

Do not expect big games every week from the 23-year-old, but his ceiling has already become apparent.  

Trey McBride FAAB Bid: 34% of your available budget

OVERREACTIONS & UNDERREACTIONS

Every Tuesday, we go through our favorite overreaction and underreaction because what fantasy football players don’t react rationally to every bit of news they hear and see?!

Overreaction: The San Francisco 49ers are not a playoff team

After starting the 2023 season on an absolute tear, the 49ers have taken a step back, losing each of their last three games and scoring only 17 points in each of them.

It’s hard to understand where exactly this came from because — even when you account for losses like Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams — the 49ers simply have looked sluggish lately. Brock Purdy has definitely dealt with some concussion issues, but the 49ers’ defense, particularly their pass defense, has looked very slopped lately.

In the past two games, the 49ers allowed Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins to throw for nearly 300+ yards apiece, and they threw at will, seemingly ignoring their run games as if they didn’t need them.

Even with all of this though, I wouldn’t discount San Francisco. They are undoubtedly still one of the five best teams in the NFC, arguably Top 3, and will make the playoffs simply because the NFC doesn’t have seven all-world teams this season.

Underreaction: The Super Bowl champion will come from the AFC North

This seemed kind of crazy a couple of weeks ago, with the Bengals sitting at 2-3 with a gimpy Burrow, the Browns struggling with Deshaun Watson, and the Ravens having struggled in a loss to the Steelers. Now though, the Ravens have the best record in the AFC, Burrow looks back to himself, and the Browns still have one of the best defenses in the league.

We have to dig deep this season. 

The Chiefs may be on cruise control right now, but they did just lose to the Broncos for the first time in 16 games, there’s no true contender in the AFC South, and the Dolphins have lost to both of the solid teams they’ve played this season. Don’t get me started on Buffalo.

We may have to face the fact that the AFC North is truly the best division in the NFL because its teams are certainly starting to play like it. I took the Bengals to win the Super Bowl before the season, and I can still certainly see them winning.

They are currently +1800 on DraftKings right now and represent a good buy-low opportunity.

THE HINDSIGHT REPORT

We’re officially a quarter into the NFL season! Every Tuesday, Sam Wagman will use the powers of hindsight to look back on players we thought would be good for fantasy this season but aren’t, and vice versa.

Let’s try and dive into what is going on with Tony Pollard. Heading into the season, we were all smitten with Pollard, and for good reasons.

His prospect profile was terrific, as it labeled him a potential three-down back. He had limited usage so far in his career, having sat behind Ezekiel Elliott for multiple years before breaking out behind him last season.

In this season’s fantasy draft process, Pollard was ranked as high as the RB1 overall by some analysts. Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy had professed that he wanted to run the ball even more in 2023, and everyone took that to assume that Pollard would be given the keys, especially when all through the start of the season, the Cowboys never signed anyone else to rotate with Pollard.

He started 2023 off well enough, with three straight top-13 finishes. However, he has only had one RB1 finish in the past four games and hasn’t surpassed 53 rushing yards since Week 3. So, what’s going on?

It would seem that at the end of the day, Dallas was probably right about Pollard in that he isn’t suited to play that 350+ touch workhorse role. Dallas needs a true grinder to work in short yardage to let Pollard be his explosive self in space and on outside zone runs.

I think, going forward, we should expect Pollard to finish somewhere in the middle of where he started the season, and where he’s been the last month, which would be about a back-end RB1 or a high-end RB2. Expecting top-15 finishes regularly is probably safe in this high-powered Cowboys offense, especially at his current utilization, where he sees 60+% of the rushes and 55% of the route share.

Perhaps the Cowboys make a move at the deadline?

Each Tuesday, Sam Wagman will take a peek at the week ahead’s betting spread and total lines on our partner DraftKings to determine which lines you should grab ahead of time.

New York Jets +3 vs Los Angeles Chargers

Despite the Chargers bludgeoning the Bears in Sunday night’s game, I’m still not convinced that they’re back. The Bears have a ton of holes that were papered up on defense and still look plenty discombobulated on offense.

On the other hand, the Chargers’ run game has been mediocre at best this season. They’re averaging the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game over their last three games, and now go up against one of the best passing defenses in the league, especially against wide receivers.

The Chargers have done nearly all of their damage against teams’ secondaries, but that could change with the Jets, as both Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed can blanket opposing wide receivers. This game will come down to what the Jets are able to do on offense, and if Breece Hall gets going, the Jets could surprise and win this one outright.

Atlanta Falcons -5 @ Minnesota Vikings

I wanted to get this line a little earlier, but 5 is an okay number too. With Kirk Cousins now confirmed to have torn his Achilles tendon this weekend, the Vikings are in a very unenviable spot as a team. 

Breakout seasons from K.J. Osborn and Jordan Addison could be derailed, the running game — which was bad enough with Cousins — should be worse now, and forget about Justin Jefferson coming back anytime soon. Jaren Hall, a fifth-round rookie out of BYU, is assumed to be the next man up and — with zero NFL experience — could be in for a long debut.

Looking at the Falcons, this looks even better when you consider that Desmond Ridder has finally been benched, and now we have Taylor Heinicke taking the reins for the team at QB. Heinicke isn’t anything special, but he’s a veteran who has shown an ability to manage things well enough.

Knowing that Heinicke is in charge of the reins makes me feel a lot better about the skill position talent on this team, including Drake London and Kyle Pitts, so give me the Falcons in a comfortable double-digit win.

Houston Texans -2.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a classic spot here. Get back on board with the team at home that had a poor showing in a matchup against an overrated team.

That’s exactly what we get with backing the Texans here, a team that has shown that they are clearly better at this moment than the Buccaneers, who have been floundering over the last couple of weeks.

I would be concerned if I were the Buccaneers, mostly because the offensive line has not been able to protect Baker Mayfield in many spots. Enter the Houston Texans, who rank third in Pass Rush Win Rate this season.

This could be a smash get-right spot for the Texans and C.J. Stroud, who has been playing very solidly in his rookie campaign.